Is La Nina finally turning off rain spigot?
Monday, February 7, 2011 at 6:14 a.m.
Forecasting is never easy. But the past nine months or so have been especially humbling for climatologists. Scientists began saying last spring that a La Nina was evolving in the equatorial Pacific and that it was likely to result in below average rainfall for Southern California. The La Nina did emerge. But San Diego County had an unusually wet fall and early winter. Shortly before Christmas, it rained, off-and-on, for seven straight days locally, flooding Qualcomm Stadium just before the Poinsettia Bowl.Scripps Institution of Oceanography researcher Dan Cayan told the U-T's Rob Krier told the wet weather was "is one of those cases that make us look foolish." (Story).
But Cayan also said that unusually dry weather could follow later in the winter. And that may be happening.
San Diego's Lindbergh Field recorded 8.14'' of rain from July 1-Feb. 6, which is 5.88'' above average. But since Jan. 1, the airport has received only 0.30'', which is 2.43'' below average. And there's no heavy rain in the mid-range forecast. The National Weather Service says cool, moist air will below ashore Monday night, bringing drizzle in some areas until Tuesday morning. Then it is expected to be dry at least until next Sunday.
It's still possible the weather could turn nasty later this month, and in March. But the first six weeks of this year will be drier than normal. And the U.S. Climate Prediction Center is standing by its forecast, saying online, "Nearly all models indicate that La Niña is near its peak and will last well into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2011."
Source: http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2011/feb/07/la-nina-finally-turning-rain-spigot/?sciquest--
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