June. So, what happened? Didn't it pay enough rent or what? Smile. Jim
-----Original Message-----
From: californiadisasters@yahoogroups.com
[mailto:californiadisasters@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Kim Noyes
Sent: Friday, February 10, 2012 10:01 AM
To: CaliforniaDisasters
Subject: [californiadisasters] La Nina Diagnostic Discussion (February 2012)
Synopsis: La Niña is likely to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during
March-May 2012.
A mature La Niña continued during January 2012, as below-average sea surface
temperatures (SST) persisted across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1
<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/fig
ure1.gif> ). The weekly SST indices remained near -1.0oC in the Niño-3.4 and
Niño-4 regions (Fig. 2
<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/fig
ure2.gif> ). However, the negative SST anomalies weakened in the far eastern
Pacific, indicated by warming in the Niño-1+2 and Niño-3 regions. The
oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean)
anomalies also weakened slightly (Fig. 3
<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/fig
ure3.gif> ), but continued to reflect an extensive area of below-average
subsurface temperatures east of the Date Line (Fig. 4
<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/fig
ure4.gif> ). Also, anomalous low-level easterly and upper-level westerly
winds persisted over the central and west-central Pacific. Convection
remained suppressed in the western and central Pacific, and enhanced over
Indonesia (Fig. 5
<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/fig
ure5.gif> ). Collectively, the oceanic and atmospheric patterns reflect a
weak-to-moderate strength La Niña.
A majority of models predict La Niña to weaken through the rest of the
Northern Hemisphere winter 2011-12, and then to dissipate during the spring
2012 (Fig. 6
<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/fig
ure6.gif> ). Also, there is evidence of a downwelling phase of an
eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin wave (red shading, Fig. 4
<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/fig
ure4.gif> ), which may increase temperatures across the Pacific in the next
couple of months. The combination of a weakening subsurface temperature
anomaly, the historical seasonal evolution, and forecaster preference for
the average dynamical model prediction favors a return to ENSO-neutral
conditions during the Northern Hemisphere spring, which are likely to
continue into the summer. Therefore La Niña is likely to transition to
ENSO-neutral conditions during March-May 2012 (see CPC/IRI consensus
forecast <http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/figure1.html> ).
Because the strength of impacts in the United States is not necessarily
related to the exact strength of La Niña in the tropical Pacific, we expect
La Niña impacts to continue even as the episode weakens. Over the U.S.
during February - April 2012, there is an increased chance of above-average
temperatures across the south-central and southeastern U.S., and
below-average temperatures in the northwestern U.S. Also, above-average
precipitation is favored across most of the northern tier of states (except
the north-central U.S.) and in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and
drier-than-average conditions are more likely across the southern tier of
the U.S. (see 3-month seasonal outlook
<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/> released on 19
January 2012).
Source:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/enso
disc.html
--
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