California can survive hypothetical super-drought, researchers find
by LiLi Tan, KSBY News
It's been three years of drought and counting for California, and some scientists want you to imagine if we hit 72 years. They say the state's economy could survive a veritable drought of that magnitude, but ecosystems and agriculture would surely suffer.
A few years ago, researchers from UC Davis, CSU Bay Area, among other places, used computer models to see what optimal water management would do to protect the economy from long term drought. They used 72 years as a period of time it would take the state to implement things to optimize water systems such as reusing waste water, even desalinization projects.
They say adaptions like this "are expensive but not catastrophic for overall economy but would impose severe burdens on the agricultural sector and environmental water uses," lead author Julien Harou, of UCL, wrote.
The San Luis Obispo utility services manager Ron Munds says he uses computer models to predict water levels for the city too, but says the estimations are based on assumptions that can change.
"It's all based on assumptions. If we're basing it on a year like 2013 then it would say no, we're not going to make it," Munds said.
Local farmers disagree with the study's findings and are barely sure businesses will survive the current drought without rain this winter, much less 72 years of drought.
"I don't think so. I think there's too many businesses associated with agriculture," Morro Creek Avocado Ranch's Alan Cavaletto. "Real life is a whole different ballgame. You can draw it on paper and the lines will connect all the time. But out in the real world, on the ranch, it doesn't always work that way."
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