[Geology2] Small earthquake near the Big Bend of the San Andreas Fault
Small earthquake near the Big Bend of the San Andreas Fault
By David Jacobson, Temblor

Last night, at 9:14 p.m. local time, a M=3.5 earthquake struck just north of the San Andreas Fault in Southern California. The quake's epicenter was 5 km north of Frazier Park and near Tejon Pass on Interstate-5. While not large enough to cause damage, the earthquake did result in moderate shaking near the epicenter and approximately 150 reported feeling the quake on the USGS website. This earthquake occurred at an extremely shallow depth and was pure strike-slip in nature.

Because the epicenter of this quake was nearly 5 km from the main strand of the San Andreas, it likely did not occur on it. This idea is also supported by the fact that the two focal mechanism planes are not parallel with either the San Andreas, or the nearby Garlock faults. However, it should be pointed out that these planes are more optimally oriented, given the principle stress directions. So, while not on the main strands of either of these large faults, the structure on which last night's earthquake occurred, could be associated with them.
What this very small earthquake also highlights is potentially unmapped faults in the vicinity of the Big Bend section of the San Andreas. When a fault cannot relieve tectonic forces acting on it (such as when it is not optimally oriented), there have to be other faults that take accommodate it. In the Google Earth image below, the area around yesterday's earthquake is shown. While the San Andreas and Garlock faults are clearly mapped, there are extremely straight valleys, which have similar orientations to the focal mechanism of yesterday's quake.

Even though this earthquake likely didn't originate on the San Andreas, it is important to highlight this section of the fault given the potential for a large earthquake. Additionally, in Southern California, the Big Bend and adjacent Carrizo and Mojave sections of the San Andreas accommodate 50-70% of plate motion, meaning there is a very high seismic hazard. In a paper by Dr. Katherine Scharer at the USGS that was published earlier this year, she and her team found new evidence of at least 10 ground-rupturing earthquakes prior to the 1857 M=7.7-7.9 Fort Tejon earthquake along the Big Bend section of the Southern San Andreas Fault. In this paper, they determined that the average interval between earthquakes on the Big Bend section is approximately 100 years, with some as short as 22 years and as long as 186 years noted. Furthermore, 66% of the intervals are shorter than the current one, which sits at 160 years.
While we are not saying that a large earthquake along this section of the San Andreas is going to happen soon, based on historical seismicity, it is an area that is seen as more likely to rupture in a large earthquake than other parts of the San Andreas. Therefore, highlighting it and informing people of the seismic risk is vital to ensuring that when an earthquake does happen we can be are prepared as possible.

References
USGS
Scharer, K., R. Weldon, G. Biasi, A. Streig, and T. Fumal (2017), Ground-rupturing earthquakes on the northern Big Bend of the San Andreas Fault, California, 800 A.D. to present, J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, 122, doi:10.1002/2016JB013606. Link
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Posted by: Lin Kerns <linkerns@gmail.com>
[Geology2] Deep in a South African gold mine, scientists drill for the heart of an earthquake

Near the bottom of the Moab Khotsong gold mine in South Africa, scientists aim to drill to the site of a recent earthquake.
Deep in a South African gold mine, scientists drill for the heart of an earthquake
It's no easy feat to drill into the faults that cause earthquakes. Intercepting such active ruptures, which are buried kilometers beneath the surface, requires specialized equipment, skilled crews, and a lot of money and time. There are no shortcuts. Well, maybe there's one: an express elevator in a South African gold mine that runs 3 kilometers straight into Earth.
This week, scientists were set to begin drilling a 750-meter-deep hole from the bottom of the Moab Khotsong mine, located some 180 kilometers southwest of Johannesburg, South Africa. Three years ago, a magnitude-5.5 earthquake erupted from a previously unknown fault beneath the mine. Aftershocks continue. The $1.6 million project, if successful, could reveal the internal workings of what may be a "fresh" fault: one that has experienced its first earthquake. Unsullied by previous quakes, the fault could yield new insights into how quakes unfold—and how humans can inadvertently trigger them.
The international project, dubbed Drilling into Seismogenic Zones (DSeis) and backed by the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program, is the brainchild of several Japanese researchers who have been working in South Africa since the fall of apartheid in 1991. Other efforts to drill into active faults, such as the San Andreas in California or the Alpine in New Zealand, have cost tens of millions of dollars and yielded one or two cores. In South Africa's mines, the researchers saw a quick and relatively cheap way to get a detailed look at the fracturing rock that generates earthquakes. "In Japan, we couldn't easily access the seismic source," says Yasuo Yabe, a geologist at Tohoku University in Sendai, Japan, fresh from a trip down the mine. "Here people are going in and out daily."
DSeis was already planning drilling projects in several other mines when the magnitude-5.5 Orkney earthquake struck beneath Moab Khotsong on 5 August 2014, killing one worker. The event kicked the project into high gear. It was the country's largest quake in nearly 50 years. South Africa's gold mines experience frequent small quakes triggered by their explosive excavations. But this one was far stronger and deeper; unlike most induced quakes it was not on the same level as the mine. The fault ran perpendicular to other known faults. And its rocks slid past each other horizontally—a strike-slip motion—rather than vertically, as in most smaller quakes.
These mysteries worried the mine companies, who need to plunge deeper for more gold and don't want seismic surprises. They were receptive to a pitch from a longtime collaborator, Hiroshi Ogasawara, a seismologist at Ritsumeikan University in Kusatsu, Japan, to add the Orkney fault to the list of DSeis targets.
Most campaigns to drill into earthquake zones have targeted faults like the San Andreas, which has seen thousands or millions of earthquakes. But there's good reason to believe, given its quiet tectonic environment, that the Orkney earthquake came from a fault that has ruptured just once or, at most, a few times, says DSeis collaborator William Ellsworth, a geophysicist at Stanford University in Palo Alto, California. Such a fault would lack the "rock flour" that builds up in active faults as they grind away and makes it hard to discern how an individual earthquake divides its energy into seismic waves, heat, strain, and pulverizing rock. "We have a tremendous opportunity to get a look at what is essentially an ordinary earthquake," Ellsworth says.
The mine is a challenging work environment. Moab Khotsong claims to be home to the world's deepest mine shaft: a 3000–meter descent at some 15 meters per second in a shaking cage, with only the arcs of head lamps piercing the darkness. At the drilling level, 95 floors down, it's a 10-minute ride in a rail carriage to the drill site. It can be eerily quiet, and the air carries an acrid scent of burnt rock and ammonia from recent dynamiting. "It's a smell that'd be associated with Hades," says Tullis Onstott, a geomicrobiologist at Princeton University who has also joined the project.
Onstott's goal is to learn whether earthquakes can favor the microbes that live in deep rock. In an experiment he's been trying to do for a decade, ever since it failed at a San Andreas drill site, he will install an automated sampling system, triggered by seismicity, in the borehole at the fault. Past work has shown that an earthquake can release a pulse of hydrogen gas, which might have been trapped in the rock or generated by chemical reactions caused by the fracturing. Onstott hopes, as more aftershocks strike, to discover a cascade of microbial populations feeding off this chemical energy. If so, similar faults could become targets for a search for life on Mars, which might influence the selection of a landing site for NASA's Mars 2020 rover mission, Onstott says.
Mine operators might also get what they are seeking: a clearer picture of how human activity can trigger quakes. In the United States, the underground disposal of wastewater from oil and gas drilling is known to trigger quakes by boosting pressure in the rock pores. Pore pressure is unlikely to be a factor in South Africa, says Ze'ev Reches, a geophysicist at the University of Oklahoma in Norman. But he notes that the Orkney quake, like some of the largest induced quakes in Oklahoma, occurred deep in basement rock along a previously unmapped fault. (Reches is planning to drill into a fault in Oklahoma, but he'll have to go 4.5 kilometers down.)
Plenty can still go wrong for DSeis. In May, operators shuttered another mine that the project planned to use, citing an increased risk of falling rocks. But Ogasawara says they have plenty of candidate earthquake faults for their campaign, including small, shallow ones accessible from nearby mines, which may allow them to target the very heart of an earthquake: the hypocenter, the exact place where a fault first starts to give way. "That is what we want to see," Ogasawara says. "We're expecting to show what a hypocenter looks like."
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Posted by: Lin Kerns <linkerns@gmail.com>
[Geology2] Death by volcano?
Death by volcano?
- Date:
- May 30, 2017
- Source:
- Washington University in St. Louis
- Summary:
- The discovery of anomalously high levels of mercury in rocks from the Ordivician geological period has led to a new interpretation of the ensuing mass extinction. A sequence of disturbances may have led to catastrophic cooling by reflective sulfate aerosols injected into the atmosphere by massive volcanism. The finding is important since aerosol cooling is under consideration as a way to temper global warming.

Anyone concerned by the idea that people might try to combat global warming by injecting tons of sulfate aerosols into Earth's atmosphere may want to read an article in the May 1, 2017 issue of the journal Geology.
In the article, a Washington University scientist and his colleagues describe what happened when pulses of atmospheric carbon dioxide and sulfate aerosols were intermixed at the end of the Ordivician geological period more than 440 million years ago.
The counterpart of the tumult in the skies was death in the seas. At a time when most of the planet north of the tropics was covered by an ocean and most complex multicellular organisms lived in the sea, 85 percent of marine animal species disappeared forever. The end Ordivician extinction, as this event was called, was one of the five largest mass extinctions in Earth's history.
Although the gases were injected into the atmosphere by massive volcanism rather than prodigious burning of fossil fuels and under circumstances that will never be exactly repeated, they provide a worrying case history that reveals the potential instability of planetary-scale climate dynamics.
Figuring out what caused the end Ordivician extinction or any of the other mass extinctions in Earth's history is notoriously difficult, said David Fike, associate professor of earth and planetary sciences in Arts & Sciences and a co-author on the paper.
Because the ancient atmospheres and oceans have long since been altered beyond recognition, scientists have to work from proxies, such as variations in oxygen isotopes in ancient rock, to learn about climates long past. The trouble with most proxies, said Fike, who specializes in interpreting the chemical signatures of biological and geological activity in the rock record, is that most elements in rock participate in so many chemical reactions that a signal can often be interpreted in more than one way.
But a team led by David Jones, an earth scientist at Amherst College, was able to bypass this problem by measuring the abundance of mercury. Today, the primary sources of mercury are coal-burning power plants and other anthropocentric activities; during the Ordivician, however, the main source was volcanism.
Volcanism coincides with mass extinctions with suspicious frequency, Fike said. He is speaking not about an isolated volcano but rather about massive eruptions that covered thousands of square kilometers with thick lava flows, creating large igneous provinces (LIPs). The most famous U.S. example of a LIP is the Columbia River Basalt province, which covers most of the southeastern part of the state of Washington and extends to the Pacific and into Oregon.
Volcanoes are plausible climate forcers, or change agents, because they release both carbon dioxide that can produce long-term greenhouse warming and sulfur dioxide that can cause short-term reflective cooling. In addition, the weathering of vast plains of newly exposed rock can draw down atmospheric carbon dioxide and bury it as limestone minerals in the oceans, also causing cooling.
When Jones analyzed samples of rock of Ordivician age from south China and the Monitor Range in Nevada, he found anomalously high mercury concentrations. Some samples held 500 times more mercury than the background concentration. The mercury arrived in three pulses, before and during the mass extinction.
But what happened? It had to have been an unusual sequence of events because the extinction (atypically) coincided with glaciation and also happened in two pulses.
As the scientists began to piece together the story, they began to wonder if the first wave of eruptions didn't push Earth's climate into a particularly vulnerable state, setting it up for a climate catastrophe triggered by later eruptions.
The first wave of eruptions laid down a LIP whose weathering then drew down atmospheric carbon dioxide. The climate cooled and glaciers formed on the supercontinent of Gondwana, which was then located in the southern hemisphere.
The cooling might have lowered the tropopause, the boundary between two layers of the atmosphere with different temperature gradients. The second wave of volcanic eruptions then injected prodigious amounts of sulfur dioxide above the tropopause, abruptly increasing Earth's albedo, or the amount of sunlight it reflected.
This led to the first and largest pulse of extinctions. As ice sheets grew, sea level dropped and the seas became colder, causing many species to perish.
During the second wave of volcanism, the greenhouse warming from carbon dioxide overtook the cooling caused by sulfur dioxide and the climate warmed, the ice melted and sea levels rose. Many of the survivors of the first pulse of extinctions died in the ensuing flooding of habitat with warmer, oxygen-poor waters.
The take-home, said Fike, is that the different factors that affect Earth's climate can interact in unanticipated ways and it is possible that events that might not seem extreme in themselves can put the climate system into a precarious state where additional perturbations have catastrophic consequences.
"It's something to keep in mind when we contemplate geoengineering schemes to mitigate global warming," said Fike, who teaches a course where students examine such schemes and then evaluate their willingness to deploy them.
Story Source:
Materials provided by Washington University in St. Louis. Original written by Diana Lutz. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.
Journal Reference:
- David S. Jones, Anna M. Martini, David A. Fike, Kunio Kaiho. A volcanic trigger for the Late Ordovician mass extinction? Mercury data from south China and Laurentia. Geology, 2017; G38940.1 DOI: 10.1130/G38940.1
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Posted by: Lin Kerns <linkerns@gmail.com>
Monday, May 29, 2017
[californiadisasters] Emergency Manager’s Weekly Report 5-26-17
Good Afternoon Everyone,
This week's edition is now available at: https://sites.google.com/site/emergencymanagersweeklyreport/
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Steve Detwiler
EM Weekly Report Editor
Posted by: Steve Detwiler <steveorange2011@gmail.com>
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Sunday, May 28, 2017
[californiadisasters] On This Date In California Weather History (May 29)
The winds damaged four horse shelter roofs in Hesperia.
One roof was completely removed from the shelter.
Winds also knocked over power lines in Hesperia and Victorville.
Lightning from thunderstorms also began a small brush fire near Yucca Valley.
2003: It was 115° F in Borrego Springs and 108° F in Victorville, each the highest temperature on record for May.
2003: Las Vegas, NV, recorded a morning low of 89° F.
This was the warmest low ever recorded in May.
1988: A wind gust to 95 mph was recorded at the Mojave airport.
1988: Gale force winds caused stormy seas.
Avalon Harbor on Catalina Island was closed after several boats were driven ashore (smashed against the rocks) or scattered.
One boater was presumed dead. In Mission Bay one was injured when a catamaran was capsized.
Piers were closed and surf claimed part of a restaurant in Redondo Beach.
Boats were capsized around San Pedro.
Two boaters died.
1984: It was 108° F in Riverside and 93° F in Idyllwild, each the highest temperature on record for May.
In Idyllwild this also occurred on 5.31.2001.
1984: A thunderstorm caused a variety of damage in the Fresno area: winds destroyed a shelter killing a number of turkeys and damaged roofs on some homes near Easton; near Clovis lightning started a fire in an orchid.
1950: Santa Rosa had a high temperature of 104° F.
1896: Cedarville (Surprise Valley, Modoc Co.) recorded 1.58" of precipitation, its second largest one-day total for May.
Source: NWS San Francisco/Monterey, Hanford, Reno, Las Vegas, Phoenix, & San Diego
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Posted by: Kim Noyes <kimnoyes@gmail.com>
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[Geology2] A new earthquake warning system could send alerts to your phone before a quake hits
A new earthquake warning system could send alerts to your phone before a quake hits
By Brittany MartinResearchers have announced that California is likely to launch an earthquake warning system next year which could send an alert to classrooms, transit agencies and even your own smartphone before a quake hits your location. Earthquakes are notoriously tricky to predict, and the Shake Alert system is expected to provide only seconds of advance notice, but those seconds could make all the difference when it comes to taking shelter before the shaking begins.
We have modern communications technology to thank for the possibility of this new system, the LA Times reports. The shock waves from an earthquake only move at about the speed of sound, which is slower than the speed at which your phone can send and receive data. So, to use the example from the Times, if an earthquake of 7.8 magnitude hits the Salton Sea, it would take a full minute before the impact was felt in Los Angeles. By then, Shake Alert would have told you to find something sturdy to brace yourself under. As the system grows, it could be integrated directly into infrastructure to trigger things like opening elevator doors before you get trapped, shutting off gas before a pipeline snaps and alerting school teachers to guide kids to safety.
A video by UC Berkeley researchers below shows how it would work.

The project has been in the works for a while, with limited tests rolling out in recent years. In 2014, it was in use when an earthquake hit the Napa Valley. It successfully gave eight seconds of notice to those who had access to the trial system. Last year, it was able to give 30 seconds of alert before a smaller quake was felt in Los Angeles. Similar systems have been in place in Japan and have been credited with preventing train accidents and other dangerous scenarios.
This kind of tech doesn't come cheap. Estimates say Shake Alert will cost $38.3 million just to get fully up and running and then another $16.1 million every year to maintain and operate. Thankfully, California taxpayers won't be responsible for the entire cost, but we will most likely see some of our tax dollars going toward the system, if and when it rolls out.Source: https://www.timeout.com/los-angeles/blog/a-new-earthquake-warning-system-could-send-alerts-to-your-phone-before-a-quake-hits-052217
Posted by: Kim Noyes <kimnoyes@gmail.com>
[Geology2] Costly Golden Gate Bridge Retrofit Still Years Away From Completion
Costly Golden Gate Bridge Retrofit Still Years Away From Completion
May 24, 2017 11:10 PMSAN FRANCISCO (KPIX 5) — It may come as a surprise to many commuters and tourists that the Golden Gate Bridge has only completed part of its retrofit work.
It has been nearly three decades since the Loma Prieta earthquake shook the Bay Area. The massive quake caused fires in San Francisco's Marina District, toppled sections of Interstate 880 in Oakland, and collapsed a large section of the eastern span of the Bay Bridge.
Since then the Bay Bridge, and the six other Bay Area bridges overseen by Caltrans, have all been re-built, replaced or retrofitted to withstand another Loma Prieta magnitude earthquake.
Golden Gate Bridge, Highway and Transportation District GM and CEO Denis Mulligan told KPIX 5 the tragic events surrounding 9/11 pressed the pause button on retrofit plans.
Still, 9/11 was 16 years ago. In that time, both the southern and northern approaches were strengthened. But the main section of the bridge, arguably its most important section, which encompasses the entire 4,200-foot long suspension span – including both towers – has not been secured.
"We have gone through and retrofitted the most vulnerable parts of the bridge first," explained Mulligan. "So, today, if you are on the bridge in the mother of all earthquakes, you will be safe."
In other words, Mulligan says anyone on the bridge at the time of a major quake, will be able to get off. But the bridge may be out of service for a while, potentially a long while.
Mulligan says as it stands now, the retro-fit plan includes six years of potential work. It would have to be completely finished before it could be opened to cars.
Mulligan explained that part of the delay was all about design. Engineers had to custom-build massive shock absorbers, called dampers, to help the bridge withstand a major quake.
The total cost of the work is staggering. It will take $600 million to make the Golden Gate Bridge earthquake ready. Even if the bridge district wanted to start the work tomorrow, it doesn't have the money to do it. The district is a stand-alone organization, and federal or state help is not guaranteed.
In fact, when KPIX 5 asked both the Governor's office and the state Secretary of Transportation to comment, both declined and issued a joint statement which reads:
"Thank you for reaching out to both CalSTA and the Governor's Press Office on this issue, as you know the Golden Gate Bridge is not operated by the State. It's run by a regional body, responsible for its tolls and maintenance. At this point, it would be inappropriate for us to offer comment for your story. We would respectfully defer to the Golden Gate Bridge and Highway District for comment."
Randy Rentschler from the Metropolitan Transportation Commission said he feels that if the Golden Gate Bridge were managed by the state, the work would most likely have already been completed. But Rentschler was also quick to point out that getting state or federal funds was going to be tough.
"The amount of money lying around in Sacramento and Washington, DC isn't that easy to get," explained Rentschler. "So when you are talking about trying to raise $600 million, it's going to be hard."
Mulligan said the District is working on a funding plan right now and it hopes to start the much needed retro-fit work sometime in 2018.
Posted by: Kim Noyes <kimnoyes@gmail.com>