Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Re: [californiadisasters] Pineapple Express Headed To California



Not the type of pattern I would have expected for a dry La Nina year.    More like what we have during an El Nino.   But I am sure there are exceptions and I'm sure someone will chime in with some explanation on how this isn't unique (haha).

Jason
 
In a message dated 12/15/2010 10:10:35 P.M. Pacific Standard Time, kimnoyes@gmail.com writes:
 

...PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS TO POTENTIALLY BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
WILL INTERACT WITH SIGNIFICANT PLUMES OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF WET WEATHER TO
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY...POSSIBLY CONTINUING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY...WITH RAIN BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD TO THE
LOS ANGELES BASIN IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF
RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE PRECISE
LOCATION OF THE MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR
AREAS FROM VENTURA COUNTY NORTHWARD.

PRELIMINARY RAINFALL AMOUNTS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF SAN
LUIS OBISPO ...SANTA BARBARA...AND VENTURA COUNTIES...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES
LIKELY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. ACROSS LOS ANGELES COUNTY...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN .50 TO 1 INCH ACROSS MOST
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES LIKELY IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A SECONDARY PLUME OF EVEN DEEPER
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITIONING AND TIMING OF THIS MOISTURE
PLUME. HOWEVER...THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. IN
ADDITION TO THE DEEP MOISTURE...THIS SECONDARY STRONGER WAVE COULD
HAVE STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW FLOW WHICH COULD PROVIDE
SIGNIFICANT OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS
FOOTHILL AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL ORIGIN OF
THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS...SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...GENERALLY ABOVE 9000 FEET.

RESIDENTS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ON THIS
DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

$$

GOMBERG

Source: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?wfo=lox&sid=LOX&pil=SPS
--
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