The following were excerpted from the most recent NIFC Wildland Fire Potential Outlook (April - July 2013):
Northern California significant wildland fire potential is expected tobe normal through April and May. However, in June and July it is likely that much of the Area will develop above normal significant wildland fire potential. March was again extremely dry with less than half of normal precipitation across most of the Area. Moderate drought conditions have expanded across northeastern California. Snowpack was only half of normal towards the end of March.
For April, near normal precipitation along with cooler than normal temperatures is expected. Snowpack across the higher elevations will continue to shrink about a month ahead of schedule. May is expected to have near normal temperatures and precipitation. However, normal precipitation for May is insignificant compared to the normal precipitation of recent cold season months, so mild to moderate drought conditions are expected to continue across many areas.
June and July are expected to have near normal temperature and precipitation. But again, the normal precipitation for this time of year is insignificant, and most of the region will be in a precipitation deficit. Fuels will likely dry about a month ahead of schedule along with an early departure of mountain snowpack. In the eastern portion of the Area, poor grass fuel loading combined with large burned areas from last year will minimize significant wildland fire potential. Also, the typical peak marine layer season should keep cool, humid conditions along the immediate coast. Fuels continue much drier than normal. An earlier start to green up is expected for many areas, and normal snowpack regions are expected to emerge from snow cover several weeks earlier than normal.
Source: http://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf
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Executive Summary For June and July
Significant fire potential will be above normal in
mountains and foothills of southern California.
Significant fire potential will increase to above
normal over northern California
Fuel Conditions
For California, fuels continue much drier than normal.
An earlier start to green up is expected for many areas, and much of the region is expected to emerge from snow cover several weeks earlier than normal.
Fuel Conditions
For California, fuels continue much drier than normal.
An earlier start to green up is expected for many areas, and much of the region is expected to emerge from snow cover several weeks earlier than normal.
Fire Season Timing
The main core of fire season should begin normally in mid-July.
Expect an earlier start to fire season in many areas of California.
The main core of fire season should begin normally in mid-July.
Expect an earlier start to fire season in many areas of California.
Geographic Area Forecasts
Northern California:
Northern California significant wildland fire potential is expected tobe normal through April and May. However, in June and July it is likely that much of the Area will develop above normal significant wildland fire potential. March was again extremely dry with less than half of normal precipitation across most of the Area. Moderate drought conditions have expanded across northeastern California. Snowpack was only half of normal towards the end of March.
For April, near normal precipitation along with cooler than normal temperatures is expected. Snowpack across the higher elevations will continue to shrink about a month ahead of schedule. May is expected to have near normal temperatures and precipitation. However, normal precipitation for May is insignificant compared to the normal precipitation of recent cold season months, so mild to moderate drought conditions are expected to continue across many areas.
June and July are expected to have near normal temperature and precipitation. But again, the normal precipitation for this time of year is insignificant, and most of the region will be in a precipitation deficit. Fuels will likely dry about a month ahead of schedule along with an early departure of mountain snowpack. In the eastern portion of the Area, poor grass fuel loading combined with large burned areas from last year will minimize significant wildland fire potential. Also, the typical peak marine layer season should keep cool, humid conditions along the immediate coast. Fuels continue much drier than normal. An earlier start to green up is expected for many areas, and normal snowpack regions are expected to emerge from snow cover several weeks earlier than normal.
Southern California:
In Southern California significant wildland fire potential is expected to continue to be normal through April and May before turning to above normal in the mountains for June and July. Temperatures are expected to become above normal by June and July. Precipitation during this period is expected to be below normal, especially over central California. Expect little additional rainfall in Southern California for this season.
In Southern California significant wildland fire potential is expected to continue to be normal through April and May before turning to above normal in the mountains for June and July. Temperatures are expected to become above normal by June and July. Precipitation during this period is expected to be below normal, especially over central California. Expect little additional rainfall in Southern California for this season.
--
Check out http://groups.yahoo.com/group/californiadisasters/
Read my blog at http://eclecticarcania.blogspot.com/
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