You are not alone, Lyn, and skepticism has its place when it comes judging improbable events. When the original article broke, there were many vocal skeptics in the meteorite community but their reasons for disbelief were frankly devoid of any scientific analysis and restricted to "probability"-- rather improbability of such a thing happening.
Someone, however, penned: Statistics of "probability" mean nothing in Statistics of "possibility"-- it is either impossible or possible. The argument against this being the real thing based on "probability" alone doesn't hold up by itself. There was nothing happening that shouldn't be ( e.g. No flaming smoke trails). Nothing so far rules out this being a 'bonna fide' video of a falling (soon to be) meteorite.
Note that statistically, it was improbable that the rear fender of Michelle Knapp's Malibu in Peeskill, NY would be struck by a meteoroid which entered the atmosphere several states away. Statistically, a meteorite in Canada wouldn't "likely" fall at the edge a green where a golfer was putting. Statistically a meteorite wouldn't be "likely" to punch through a house in Alabama, bounce off the radio/tv and, exactly strike a woman relining on a sofa. Statistically all these events are remote, yes-- but not only were they possible, they happened! Yet we take their "improbability" without a blink or a nod and accept them as fact.
With the spread of personal video cameras and smartphones--it was just a matter of time. (.. is "Bigfoot" next?) So the question falls to whether or not this is a digital hoax and so far there is no obvious digital manipulations.
There was a rational review on the "Bad Astronomy" Blog Look at the April 5th review:
<http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy.html>
Here is the frame by frame collage-- as the normal speed video is almost to quick to see what was captured: (Attachment)
Eman
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Someone, however, penned: Statistics of "probability" mean nothing in Statistics of "possibility"-- it is either impossible or possible. The argument against this being the real thing based on "probability" alone doesn't hold up by itself. There was nothing happening that shouldn't be ( e.g. No flaming smoke trails). Nothing so far rules out this being a 'bonna fide' video of a falling (soon to be) meteorite.
Note that statistically, it was improbable that the rear fender of Michelle Knapp's Malibu in Peeskill, NY would be struck by a meteoroid which entered the atmosphere several states away. Statistically, a meteorite in Canada wouldn't "likely" fall at the edge a green where a golfer was putting. Statistically a meteorite wouldn't be "likely" to punch through a house in Alabama, bounce off the radio/tv and, exactly strike a woman relining on a sofa. Statistically all these events are remote, yes-- but not only were they possible, they happened! Yet we take their "improbability" without a blink or a nod and accept them as fact.
With the spread of personal video cameras and smartphones--it was just a matter of time. (.. is "Bigfoot" next?) So the question falls to whether or not this is a digital hoax and so far there is no obvious digital manipulations.
There was a rational review on the "Bad Astronomy" Blog Look at the April 5th review:
<http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy.html>
Here is the frame by frame collage-- as the normal speed video is almost to quick to see what was captured: (Attachment)
Eman
On Sunday, April 6, 2014 11:00 PM, Lin Kerns <linkerns@gmail.com> wrote:
This just boggles the mind. And I am such the skeptic. I've been sitting here trying to shoot holes into the possibility that this video is legit. I can't think of anything to discount this story. There is even a website devoted to finding the meteorite, which I hope they find (but they probably won't).
http://norskmeteornettverk.no/wordpress/?p=1329&preview=true
http://norskmeteornettverk.no/wordpress/?p=1329&preview=true
Use Google translate to reload the page in English.
Signed me... still thinking...
Lin
On Sun, Apr 6, 2014 at 8:07 PM, Allison Maricelli-Loukanis <allison.ann@att.net> wrote:
cool and scary both. Allison
From: Vic Healey <vic.healey@gmail.com>
To: Kerns Lin <linkerns@gmail.com>; List Geology2 Mailing <geology2@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Sunday, April 6, 2014 6:01 PM
Subject: [Geology2] Small Meteor Nearly Hits Skydiver - Digg
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