Drought fears return with signs of 4th straight dry year
By Kurtis Alexander
Updated 9:33 pm, Thursday, January 15, 2015
The December rain was but a cruel tease for California.The storms that brought some of the biggest downpours of the decade have given way to a dry January and renewed fears that California will languish in yet another parched year.
"Californians should brace themselves for a fourth year of drought," said Mark Cowin, director of the state Department of Water Resources. "We need a lot more rain and snow to pull us out of this drought, and unfortunately very little is on the horizon."
State drinking water supplies remain far below normal. Farms are hard up for water. So are fish, mountain lions and bears. And Mother Nature doesn't seem to want to cooperate as forecasters raised the possibility this week that parts of the state, including San Francisco, could see a January without rain for the first time in recorded history.
On Thursday, state and federal water officials gathered in the capital to sound the alarm, noting that they've taken steps to combat three dry years — through emergency conservation mandates and money for new water projects, for example — but that more action will be needed.
"We must ask every Californian to help use water sparingly," said Cowin, who was joined in Sacramento by executives with the State Water Resources Control Board, California Department of Fish and Wildlife, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and other agencies.
Grower Teresa Kurtak, like many in the agriculture community, is already dealing with a lot less water. Last year, she and her partners at Fifth Crow Farm in rural San Mateo County ran their pump all hours of the night to siphon what little they could from low-flowing Butano Creek, their sole source of water. She's resigned herself to another year of doing the same.
"The creek is higher now, but it's not normal for this time of year. It's actually low for January," said Kurtak, who is preparing her 80 acres largely for salad greens and strawberries. "We may just have to plant things and throw them away if there's not enough water."
Very little rain in forecast
Federal forecasters said this week that they don't expect significant rainfall in California in the short term. The Bay Area is forecast to see only light rain at best over the next two weeks. The first likelihood is Friday night or Saturday morning.
The longer-term forecast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, released Thursday, remains dubious. The odds favor slightly above-average precipitation through April in Southern California, but call for equal chances of wet and dry weather in the north.
A month ago, water officials had hoped the state would be better off. The December rain put the state in an improved position over the previous season and prompted many communities, at least briefly, to feel a bit more secure about their water supplies.
The city of Santa Cruz last month lifted its mandatory water restrictions, arguably the tightest in the state. The East Bay Municipal Utility District recently tabled a proposal to buy additional water — and pass the expense on to customers in the form of higher rates.
Allocating more water
On Thursday, the State Water Project, which provides water for about two-thirds of California residents, followed suit. It bumped up its projected water deliveries to cities and farms this year from 10 to 15 percent of what was requested.
The allocation, however, is still a lot less than what municipal water departments and irrigation districts normally receive from the state.
The Central Valley Project, run by the federal government, is similarly expected to rein in its water deliveries, though exactly how much water it will offer won't be estimated until next month.
Outdoor watering restrictions remain in effect for California households, including bans on hosing down driveways and overwatering lawns. The mandates, which come with fines of up to $500 for violators, will probably be extended after their April expiration, state officials said.
Gov. Jerry Brown is still asking Californians to voluntarily cut overall water use by 20 percent. Many communities have mandatory reductions in place.
State leaders also have begun allocating money from last year's voter-approved Proposition 1, the $7 billion measure that will go to boosting recycled water use, cleaning up contaminated watersheds and increasing water storage.
California's Fish and Wildlife officials said Thursday that the state will continue to assist animals in the wild that have suffered because of the drought.
The agency has already rescued fish from 25 dried-up watersheds, Director Chuck Bonham said, as well as dealt with thirsty mountain lions and bears that have expanded their range, often into cities and towns, in search of water.
"If you are going to ask me how California's fish and wildlife are doing during the drought, my answer is not so well," Bonham said.
While California rainfall totals remain mostly above average for the season because of December, the state and federal reservoirs that hold much of California's potable water remain very low, as does the amount of snow in the Sierra that fills those reservoirs.
On Thursday, statewide snowpack measured just 36 percent of average for the date while the state's two largest reservoirs, Lake Shasta and Lake Oroville, hovered below two-thirds of their normal capacity.
The last measurable rainfall in San Francisco was on Dec. 24. The same goes for Sacramento, while Fresno hasn't seen rain since Dec. 17.
'No need to panic yet'
The driest January on record for much of the state was last year, which marked California's third straight winter of below-average precipitation. San Francisco saw just 0.06 inches of rain that month.
Even if rain doesn't come soon, the rainy season is still less than halfway over and relief could be around the corner, said forecaster Steve Anderson with the National Weather Service.
"No need to panic yet," he said. "We may have to write off January and wait for February, March and April, when we typically do get rain."
Source: http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Experts-tell-Californians-to-prepare-for-fourth-6018730.php#photo-6212137--
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