VOLCANO MADNESS: Re: [Geology2] Human-made climate change suppresses the next ice age

Eman,

By way of explanation and caveat, be it known I am equally skeptical of all claims, and that must include your claims.

From whence comes your underlying claim "No scientist I follow claims that man does not affect climate, however the consensus by most say it is insignificant as in a few thousands of one percent. (The true 97% consists of some 37,000 scientist surveyed )." Where are these people? The consensus based on all the poll data I have seen is very different form what you claim. Only natural resource scientists have any significant trend away from the consensus view and even that is still a minority of natural resource scientists but simply a larger minority than in other fields.

Where do you get this 800-year lag idea? I have not seen any climatologist mention it.

When you say "we are in for 2 more decades of cooling", from whence do you get the information we are cooling?

The earth is in relative balance as far as the carbon cycle is concerned, but what Mankind adds, which isn't huge, is nonetheless consistent and has endured and continues to accumulate, Only a portion of human-generated carbon is absorbed by the oceans and continents leaving a surplus that seems problematic.

What proof do you have that the clouds are caused by cosmic rays, not by what science seems to show is the "water cycle"?

I have heard some very intelligent people make compelling arguments that the current solar activity does NOT explain the rising temperatures seen on the Earth in recent time.

In closing, where I come down on this is somewhere between the hysteric-ism of some and the skepticism of others. The two poles of thought on this matter have deeply entrenched emotional investment and culture context to their views. I just want to know the truth of things apart form culture and politics and personality.

Kimmer

On Tue, Jan 19, 2016 at 1:14 AM, MEM mstreman53@yahoo.com [geology2] <geology2@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

Observed data: carbon dioxide levels/vectors lag behind temp by about 800 years-- ergo, temp rises, warm/heat oceans which release disolved CO2. --basic high school physics on disolve gas partial pressures. Ergo one pillar of the 1980s greenhouse gas forcer theory has crumbled.

Temp , cosmic rays, and sunspot activity track near perfectly but inversely less than a decade lag. . As solar activity rises so do temps.As activity decreases temps fall. It is far easier and quicker to trigger an ice house than steam house Earth.

The water vapor amplifier which is modeled at 2/3s of temp rise is absent from both satellite datasets plus direct measurement by radiosonds. Pillar 2 crumbles. Even the IPCC in fine print disclaims any predictive value for direction and amount of temp change.

No scientist I follow claims that man does not affect climate, however the consensus by most say it is insignificant as in a few thousands of one percent. (The true 97% consists of some 37,000 scientist surveyed )

Science says look at observed data. Religion says ignore the data --trust us

I am vindicated in that I said the real driver of climate is a medium sized star at the center of our solar system, whose variability in output swings as much as 10%.

Following historical measurements coorelating sum spots and temp change we are in for 2 more decades of cooling. There seems a high coorelating that higher solar activities/ winds sweep away cosmic rays. Cosmic rays that reach the surface energize water molecules forcing vapor into the atmosphere produce more clouds increasing earth's albedo reflecing more solar radiation driving temps colder. Conversely, fewer cosmic rays -fewer clouds -- higher temps.

Atmospheric Carbon dioxide is a product of temp rise, not vice versa. This observed data (solar) fits temp fluctuations precisely with very little lag. Via ice core measured CO2 / isotope (derived temp )lags temp by 800 years. Weigh the two ensembles of data and see which theory of warming/ cooling/ change is best supported by empirical data.

So the headline may be generally right but for the wrong reason.

Eman

PS: historical CO2 levels are at or above 3000 ppm. We presently are give or take 400 ppm.

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Human-made climate change suppresses the next ice age

Date:
January 13, 2016
Source:
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Summary:
Humanity has become a geological force that is able to suppress the beginning of the next ice age, a study shows. Cracking the code of glacial inception, scientists have found the relation of insolation and carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere to be the key criterion to explain the last eight glacial cycles in Earth history.

Accumulation of stones that were pushed to surface by permafrost, Novaya Zemlya archipelago, Russian Arctic (stock image). For the first time, research can explain the onset of the past eight ice ages by quantifying several key factors that preceded the formation of each glacial cycle.

Credit: © max5128 / Fotolia

Humanity has become a geological force that is able to suppress the beginning of the next ice age, a study now published in the scientific journal Nature shows. Cracking the code of glacial inception, scientists of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research found the relation of insolation and CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere to be the key criterion to explain the last eight glacial cycles in Earth history. At the same time their results illustrate that even moderate human interference with the planet's natural carbon balance might postpone the next glacial inception by 100,000 years.

"Even without human-made climate change we would expect the beginning of a new ice age no earlier than in 50,000 years from now -- which makes the Holocene as the present geological epoch an unusually long period in between ice ages," explains lead author Andrey Ganopolski. "However, our study also shows that relatively moderate additional anthropogenic CO₂-emissions from burning oil, coal and gas are already sufficient to postpone the next ice age for another 50.000 years. The bottom line is that we are basically skipping a whole glacial cycle, which is unprecedented. It is mind-boggling that humankind is able to interfere with a mechanism that shaped the world as we know it."

For the first time, research can explain the onset of the past eight ice ages by quantifying several key factors that preceded the formation of each glacial cycle. "Our results indicate a unique functional relationship between summer insolation and atmospheric CO₂ for the beginning of a large-scale ice-sheet growth which does not only explain the past, but also enables us to anticipate future periods when glacial inception might occur again," Ganopolski says.

Humanity as a geological force

Using an elaborate Earth system model simulating atmosphere, ocean, ice sheets and global carbon cycle at the same time, the scientists analyzed the effects of further human-made CO₂-emissions on the ice volume on the Northern Hemisphere. "Due to the extremely long life-time of anthropogenic CO₂ in the atmosphere, past and future emissions have a significant impact on the timing of the next glacial inception," co-author Ricarda Winkelmann says. "Our analysis shows that even small additional carbon emissions will most likely affect the evolution of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets over tens of thousands of years, and moderate future anthropogenic CO₂-emissions of 1000 to 1500 Gigatons of Carbon are bound to postpone the next ice age by at least 100,000 years."

The quest for the drivers of glacial cycles remains one of the most fascinating questions of Earth system analysis and especially paleoclimatology, the study of climate changes throughout the entire history of our planet. Usually, the beginning of a new ice age is marked by periods of very low solar radiation in the summer, like at current times. However, at present there is no evidence for the beginning of a new ice age: "This is the motivation for our study. Unravelling the mystery of the mechanisms driving past glacial cycles also facilitates our ability to predict the next glacial inception," Winkelmann says.

"Like no other force on the planet, ice ages have shaped the global environment and thereby determined the development of human civilization. For instance, we owe our fertile soil to the last ice age that also carved out today's landscapes, leaving glaciers and rivers behind, forming fjords, moraines and lakes. However, today it is humankind with its emissions from burning fossil fuels that determines the future development of the planet," co-author and PIK-Director Hans Joachim Schellnhuber says. "This illustrates very clearly that we have long entered a new era, and that in the Anthropocene humanity itself has become a geological force. In fact, an epoch could be ushered in which might be dubbed the Deglacial."

Story Source:

The above post is reprinted from materials provided by Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.

Journal Reference:

A. Ganopolski, R. Winkelmann, H. J. Schellnhuber. Critical insolation–CO2 relation for diagnosing past and future glacial inception. Nature, 2016; 529 (7585): 200 DOI: 10.1038/nature16494

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). "Human-made climate change suppresses the next ice age." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 13 January 2016. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/01/160113160709.htm>.

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