[californiadisasters] El Nino/La Nina Diagnostic Discussion (October 2013)

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is expected into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014.

ENSO-neutral continued during September 2013, as sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were near-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). Except for the Niño-1+2 region, all of the latest weekly Niño index values were between 0^oC and -0.5^oC (Fig. 2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) weakened (Fig. 3), as a consequence of an upwelling oceanic Kelvin wave contributing to below-average temperatures in the east-central Pacific Ocean (Fig. 4). The strength of the tropical atmospheric circulation anomalies, as reflected by convection and winds, also weakened over the last month. Slightly enhanced convection remained over parts of Indonesia, with weakly suppressed convection evident near the Date Line (Fig. 5). Low-level winds were near average, while anomalous westerly winds prevailed at upper-levels. Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic conditions reflect ENSO-neutral.

The majority of model forecasts indicate that ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5^oC and 0.5^oC) will persist into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014 (Fig. 6). Though the forecast favors near-average conditions, many models predict a gradual increase from slightly cooler than average to warmer conditions as the spring approaches. Overall, the consensus forecast is for ENSO-neutral to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).

Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

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