Field Poll: Californians increasingly fear quakes
Kelly Zito, San Francisco Chronicle Staff Writer
San Francisco Chronicle June 23, 2011 04:00 AM Copyright San Francisco Chronicle. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
Thursday, June 23, 2011
Earthquakes remain the most-dreaded natural disaster among Californians, with an increasing number worried that that a major temblor is just around the corner, a survey released today found.
Golden State residents also fear wildfires, tsunamis and mudslides - but almost 6 in 10 registered voters now believe a large-scale quake will occur in their region sometime between now and 2021, according to researchers at the Field Poll. Just five years ago, only 4 in 10 held that view.
Much of the increase probably stems from a spate of horrific earthquakes that have hammered populated areas in Japan, New Zealand, Chile and Haiti in the past two years. California, with its perch atop the juncture of two of the planet's biggest rock plates, is also an active seismic zone - so active that federal geologists say there's a greater than 99 percent chance that California will experience a 6.7 or larger earthquake in the next 25 to 30 years.
In the Bay Area, the probability stands at 63 percent. U.S. Geological Survey scientists are particularly concerned about the Hayward Fault, which stretches 60 miles between San Pablo Bay and Fremont. On average, that fault line has a major slip every 140 years, give or take a few decades; its last failure occurred on Oct. 21, 1868 - 143 years ago.
"We know the Hayward fault is overdue," said U.S. Geological Survey research seismologist Jeanne Hardebeck. "But, of course, we don't have any information on when it will fail or how big it will fail."
The estimated 7.0 earthquake in 1868 leveled buildings in San Francisco, toppled chimneys as far away as Stockton, and sent a 10-foot wave up the Sacramento River, according to historical accounts. At the time, the Bay Area was home to only about 265,000 people. More than 7 million live in the nine-county region today.
It's no surprise, then, that Bay Area residents are more anxious about a big temblor. More than three-fourths of those interviewed by Field Poll researchers said earthquakes topped their list of most fearsome natural disasters. Ten percent were most worried about wildfire, 8 percent said tsunamis, and 4 percent said floods or mudslides.
Statewide, 57 percent listed earthquakes as their chief worry, followed by 23 percent who said wildfires, 9 percent who said tsunamis and 5 percent who said mudslides.
Those rankings haven't changed much since the last Field Poll survey on natural disasters in 2006.
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