USGS scientist sets record straight: No evidence earthquake will strike this week
Thursday, July 23, 2015
USGS research geophysicist Tom Brocher says his quote thata major quake will hit the Hayward Fault Zone 'any day now" was taken out of context.
Tom Brocher wants to set the record straight. A major earthquake could hit the Bay Area at any time, but there's absolutely no evidence that it will strike today, tomorrow or any time this week.
The research geophysicist, who works in the USGS Earthquake Science Center in Menlo Park, Calif., says his quote in the CBS San Francisco story that went viral was taken out of context and exaggerated with a sensationalized headline.
The story ran Tuesday after a 4.0-magnitude earthquake on the Hayward Fault shook Fremont early that morning. The article hypothesized that because five major earthquakes have hit about every 140 years and the last big one occurred 147 years ago, a quake will happen sooner rather than later.
Picked up from syndication service Bay City News, the story stated: "While a 2008 report put the probability of a 6.7-magnitude or larger earthquake on the Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault system over the next 30 years at 31 percent, Brocher said the reality is a major quake is expected on the fault 'any day now.'"
CBS San Francisco slapped on the clicky headline, "USGS Scientist: Major Quake on Hayward Fault Expected 'Any Day Now,'" and the story began to shake Facebook.
Brocher clarified his remarks:
"The Hayward fault is capable of producing a major earthquake at any time, but there is currently no scientific basis for making a prediction for when that earthquake will occur.
"The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast model gives a 31 percent probability of a magnitude 6.7 or larger event in the next 30 years on the Hayward-Rodgers Creek fault system," he said.
Brocher requested that Bay City News run the following clarification and the service posted it on their wire:
"Although the fault that produced a 4.0-magnitude earthquake in Fremont this morning is not expected to change the likelihood of another major quake on the same fault, a U.S. Geological Survey scientist said a major earthquake could happen at any time and residents should be prepared."
The CBS story was trending on Facebook last night and today, spreading angst among Bay Area users.
"Well s--!" writes one user who posted the story.
"Noooo!" shares another.
Friends are calling Brocher to inquire whether his "prediction" is real and his daughter texted him last night to alert him that he was all over Facebook. He's also hearing from media who are suspicious of his quote. "Most reporters have been around this topic enough to know it doesn't feel right," Brocher says.
The one good thing this piece of misleading journalism has caused: People are buying earthquake kits for the tremor that will hit "any day now."
"It might be time to get that earthquake survival kit together. Today," shares a Facebook member.
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