California's earthquake early warning system passes major test
Sensors gave 30 seconds' warning before Monday's desert temblor was felt at Caltech. Scientists hope to get funds to expand the pilot project into a statewide network.
 Seismologist Lucy Jones explains during a news conference at Caltech in January how P waves and S waves are created by an earthquake. Sensors embedded in the ground can detect the waves and provide an early warning of shaking to come. (Anne Cusack / Los Angeles Times / January 28, 2013) |
March 13, 2013, 5:19 p.m.
In the seismic annals of California, Monday's magnitude 4.7 earthquake was little more than a footnote. It gave Southern California a small morning jolt but caused no damage and was largely shrugged off by noon.
But in one important way, the quake was highly significant because it marked an advance in California's burgeoning earthquake early warning system.
The quake struck in the desert town of Anza, about 35 miles south of Palm Springs, and hundreds of sensors embedded in the ground immediately sent an alert to seismologists at Caltech in Pasadena. They had 30 seconds' warning before the quake was felt there.
"It was right," said Kate Hutton, a Caltech seismologist. "I sat really still to see if I could feel it and it worked."
The system has been in place for more than a year. But Monday's quake offered a rare opportunity to actually see — and feel — whether it worked.
The sensors have warned scientists of numerous quakes, but the vast majority were either too small to feel or too far away to be felt in the Los Angeles area. For example, the sensors gave an early warning of several magnitude 5 quakes last year in Imperial County, but the temblors hit too far away for them to be felt in L.A.
The Anza quake was different.
Even though it measured only magnitude 4.7, its location on solid granite made the shaking stronger and more widespread. People reported to the U.S. Geological Survey that they felt it as far away as Arizona and Central California. At Caltech, computer screens flashed with a 30-second countdown to when the shaking would hit Pasadena. Sure enough, it came on time.
Hutton and others declared the test a success, with some caveats.
The system initially overestimated the quake's magnitude, saying it was 5.2. But USGS seismologist Susan Hough was not overly concerned about the error. She noted that the main job of the system is to alert people to a coming quake, not to gets its magnitude precisely right. The Anza quake caused an unusually intense amount of shaking, Hough added, so the warning system accurately captured that.
The earthquake early warning system is a pilot project for what scientists hope will eventually be a statewide network using thousands of sensors to notify people about imminent shaking from moderate to strong earthquakes.
Backers say an early warning would give utilities time to shut down, trains a chance to slow so they don't derail and workers a chance to move away from hazardous materials or precarious positions. Warnings would be sent to the public through text messages, emails and other special alerts.
Similar systems are already operating in Japan, Mexico and Taiwan. Two years ago, Japan's program alerted some 50 million residents ahead of the devastating 9.0-magnitude earthquake.
The warning program's reliability hinges on where sensors are placed. They need to be located near active fault zones. The Anza quake hit in a seismically active area where scientists have embedded many sensors.
Scientists have long believed that a major quake could erupt in the desert and mountain regions north and east of L.A. because the San Andreas fault and other faults run along there. The Monday quake was along the San Jacinto fault zone.
Hough and others warned that the system would be effective only for quakes some distance from the urban center of L.A.
The warning system works when sensors in the ground detect the first signs of earth movement, known as P waves, that travel at the speed of sound. The more damaging shaking, called the S waves, lag behind at a slower speed. The greater the distance from the epicenter, the more time population centers would have to prepare. The system would provide little to no warning for a quake at the center of the city.
"It's physics," Hough said. "We have an earthquake like Northridge…those early warnings would not have helped in those places that were damaged."
Earlier this year, scientists showed off the system using a simulation of the 1933 Long Beach earthquake. A person in Pasadena, 40 miles away, would have about 18 seconds to prepare if an alert were issued.
On Monday, the Anza quake provided a real-life example.
The system currently is being funded largely by private donations. Scientists are proposing that the state spend $80 million to install and upgrade thousands of the sensors across California. If they can get the money, seismologists said the system could be operational in two years.
For all their excitement, the Caltech scientists said the system still needs more refinement as well as many more sensors to help detect quakes. The network is fine for quake experts, but they want to do more work before making it publicly available.
"It's not ready for prime time. In that sense it's being fine-tuned," Hough said. "Every earthquake is an opportunity to test the system."
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Earthquake early-warning system successful during Monday quake
"It was right," said Kate Hutton, a seismologist with Caltech. "I sat really still to see if I could feel it and it worked."
The Early Earthquake Warning project, a test run of a proposed statewide program that would use thousands of sensors already in place to notify people about imminent shaking from moderate to strong earthquakes, alerted Caltech scientists about a 4.7 temblor in Anza.
In the moments leading up to an earthquake, even a few seconds can make a difference, seismologists say.
An early warning would give utilities time to shut down, trains a chance to slow so they don't derail and workers a chance to move away from hazardous materials or precarious positions.
The system that warned Hutton on Monday morning was part of a beta-test for an early warning program proposed by state Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Pacoima) earlier this year.
Researchers have relied on about $400,000 annually to develop technology for the system. A $6-million grant in 2011 from the Palo Alto-based Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation injected more life into the project, but experts estimate upgrading monitors and sensors across California – there are thousands of them – would cost up to $80 million.
Japan has had an early warning system in place since 2007. The program alerted some 50 million residents ahead of the Fukushima earthquake in 2011.
California's program warns scientists in one of two ways: a single station near the epicenter alerts researchers to the first waves sent by an earthquake called P-waves; or by waiting for several sensors to pick up the vibrations.
The single-station method is faster but less reliable compared to the network method, which takes longer to alert seismologists but offers more accurate information, according to the California Integrated Seismic Network. It was not immediately clear which method alerted Caltech officials to Monday's quake.
Earthquake tremors move through the Earth at the speed of sound, or about five miles a second. A warning system would do nothing for people within 20 miles of the epicenter, dubbed the "blind zone" because of their proximity to the initial shaking, but the farther out from epicenter you go, the more lead time there is.
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