[californiadisasters] Computer Models Forecast Big Winter

Computer models forecast big winter

Computer models developed by long-range weather forecasters project a wet winter across most of Northern California with above-average snowfall for Tahoe, the high Sierra and the Rocky Mountains.

At Tahoe, field scout Daniel Pistoresi said that resort operators are talking about the weak -to-moderate El Nino that is taking hold in the Pacific Ocean, similar to the conditions that helped lead to the big winter of 2009-10. That winter, lifts at some Tahoe ski areas operated from Halloween to Fourth of July.

Regardless of the timing of the arrival of the first big storms, opening day for the Tahoe ski season is projected to be Nov. 16, based on historical temperatures and upgrades to snowmaking at many resorts this past summer. Some resorts, such as Boreal near Donner Summit, often open prior to mid-November.

One thing that most forecasters agree on is what is called "Swing Effect."

Visualize that you pull back a swing a long ways on one side and then let it go. Because you pulled it back so far, it then swings a long way to the other side. "Swing Effect" means "severe leads to severe."

If so, this past summer, with severe hot temperatures across most of California — like yet another day in the 80s on Tuesday at Truckee, at an elevation of 5,817 feet near Donner Summit, for instance — is likely to thus lead to a similarly severe winter.

Scientists agree with an earlier "forecast" by sandhill cranes we published a few weeks ago. Sandhill cranes seem to have the ability to forecast weather by the timing of their migration from points north to the San Joaquin Valley. The migration from mid-August through September was the earliest on record.

Source: http://blog.sfgate.com/ski/2012/10/02/computer-models-forecast-big-winter/

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