Monday, April 23, 2018

[Geology2] Can Your Dog Actually Predict Earthquakes? Here's What Science Says




main article image
(suefeldberg/istock)

Can Your Dog Actually Predict Earthquakes? Here's What Science Says

Such a good boy.

MIKE MCRAE
19 APR 2018

Tales of animals going nuts in the lead-up to an earthquake are pretty common, so it's no wonder scientists have been trying to figure out what's going on. Now an analysis of studies on the phenomenon suggests the evidence is shaky.

For the apparent wealth of research on the matter, there are surprisingly few studies that dig into the statistics behind unusual animal behaviours preceding earthquake activity.

In fact, a significant number tend to dwell on possible mechanisms rather than ask how solid that link truly is.

So a team of researchers from the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences gathered what analyses they could find and ran the numbers correlating observations in our pets and livestock with the scale and location of tremors.

"Many review papers on the potential of animals as earthquake precursors exist, but to the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that a statistical approach was used to evaluate the data," says hydrogeologist and lead author of the study, Heiko Woith.

The team collected 180 studies covering 729 reports of animal weirdness related to 160 earthquakes, and analysed them with respect to details on the quake's magnitude and distance, foreshock activity, and the quality of the publication itself.

Most of the reports centred on just three events; the Darfield earthquake in New Zealand in 2010, the 1984 Nagano-ken Seibu earthquake in Japan, and Italy's 2009 L'Aquila earthquake.

Overall, the studies recorded the observed actions of more than 130 species, from dogs to cows to even silkworms.

In spite of this apparent wealth of data, the researchers concluded the bank of evidence suffered from a critical limitation – all but 14 were based on a single observation in the lead up to an earthquake.

A typical report would detail an observer's reflections of what they figure to be unusual behaviours some time prior to an earthquake.

This lack of a timeline makes it hard to objectively evaluate how this 'special' action differs from a baseline of normal behaviours, leaving researchers with no way to rule out confirmation biases - such as noticing patterns that aren't really there.

With such a variety of animals covering diverse behaviours that were reported up to several months before a quake, it's impossible to sort which reports are meaningful and which are random.

Among those which might have something to add to the discussion, the researchers suggested it was likely the animals were simply more sensitive to the initial shaking.

"The animals may sense seismic waves – it could P, S or surface waves – generated by foreshocks," says Woith.

"Another option could be secondary effects triggered by the foreshocks, like changes in groundwater or release of gases from the ground which might be sensed by the animals."

None of this means we categorically rule out the chance that some sort of animal super-sense exists, and the scientists have a suggestion on how we can continue to get to the bottom of the question.

By noting the activity of a population of animals over a long period, one that extends long before and long after an earthquake, we might have better information to judge how changes relate to the tremor's properties.

"Up to now, only very few time series with animal behavior exist at all, the longest being just one year," says Woith.

So for those keen on proving Fido has a gift for predicting a quake, the key is to get their everyday behaviour on record long before that shaking begins.

Having a way to predict earthquakes well in advance simply isn't possible at the moment, so if animals know something we don't we'd love to know the secret.

This research was published in Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.

https://www.sciencealert.com/metastudy-evidence-animal-behaviour-relationship-earthquakes

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Posted by: Lin Kerns <linkerns@gmail.com>



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Sunday, April 22, 2018

[Volcano_Vista_HS] Parent Involvement Opportunity at VVHS



We are now accepting nominations for all of next year's Parent Advisory officers.

 

The positions are President, Vice President, Secretary and Treasurer.

 

Nominations will close end of day May 1st.    Send nominations to vvhs.parent.advisory@gmail.com.


The election will be held Tuesday, May 3rd at the final Parent Advisory Meeting of the Year (11:30 am in the VVHS Office Conference Room--see note below).


Nominees so far are:   President (Denise Winn), Vice-President (Nicole Ortiz),

                                        Treasurer (Mary Alice Salazar), Secretary (open)

 

Even though we have some nominees, all positions are considered open until the vote is taken May 3rd.

Maybe you don't want to be an officer, but would like to lead an area like staff appreciation or dance support.

Let us know that too!

 

Here is a listing of all the fun events we supported during the 2017-18 year.

 

Showed teachers and staff we appreciate them:   Monthly employee recognition with gift cards, beginning of year lunch, pie day celebration, holiday cinnamon rolls, treat bags during conferences, popcorn bar during testing, end of year luncheon, paper drive. (Special thanks:  Nicole Ortiz, Stephanie White, Debra Alba, Brenda Granger, Mary Alice Salazar, Denise Winn, Katherine Auh, Kathy Patton, Vanessa Alarid)

 

Honored students for excellence:   Purchased the student agendas; organized and funded the academic letter ceremony; organized and funded the dinner for the top ten students by GPA in sophomore to senior classes; funded four art awards.  (Special thanks:  Kathryn Auh, Brenda Granger, Stephanie White, Mary Alice Salazar, Kathy Patton)

 

General help:  Help with registration, homecoming and prom dances, technology lunches, after school patrols  (Special thanks:  Mary Alice Salazar, Brenda Granger, Denise Winn, Stephanie White, Nicole Ortiz, Debra Alba, Amy Newton, Vanessa Alarid, Mr. Ortiz, and one other Dad)   I apologize for anyone I overlooked….

 

Participated in the VVHS Instructional Council (Special thanks:  Denise Winn, Brenda Granger)


Kept the parents informed about VVHS (Special thanks:  Brenda Granger)

 

Thanks to officers for this past year:  Vice Presidents (Brenda Granger and Debra Alba),

                                                                  Treasurer (Mary Alice Salazar), and Secretary (Vanessa Alarid)

 

It has been my pleasure to work with these great parents who love VVHS and give of their extra time and resources to make the school a happier place to be. 

Thanks to all the parents who donated paper, desserts and drinks for various events.  And thanks to those who helped us in many ways throughout the year.

 

Jolene Wolfley, President

VVHS Parent Advisory

2017-18


Note:  

Parent Advisory has the best attendance for daytime meetings.  We held two meetings in the evening and those meetings had the lowest attendance




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Posted by: grangergang@ymail.com


For more information, go to our web site: http://www.volcanovistahawks.com




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[Volcano_Vista_HS] Daily Announcements, Wednesday, April 18, 2018



Good Morning Hawks

 

Today is Wednesday, April 18, 2018

Please rise for the pledge

 

SENIOR T-SHIRTS are on sale today at lunch for $10.00. This is your ticket to get into the picnic on Thursday, April 26 at 5pm.

 

SENIORS, please remember to take the Senior Exit Survey by April 20!.

Seniors, if you haven't completed your final Next Step Plan, please talk to Mr. O'Sullivan.  Completion of the plan is a graduation requirement.

 

SENIORS!  Remember to order your final transcript.  If you order it on parchment.com please remember to mark hold for grades.  If you request by paper the form is located in the main office please write final on top and attach one dollar to your request.  Any additional questions please see Mrs. Ewing in the main office.

 

SENIORS!  Please return any library books you have checked out by April 27th.  Any lost books will have to be paid for before you graduate.

 

SENIORS: The fine list is posted. All fines need to be paid by May 8th in order to pick up your cap and gown.

 

ATHLETICS:
TODAY
BASEBALL: will play at Rio Rancho at 6
 
FRIDAY
TRACK has meet at the Academy beginning at 9:30 am.
 
SATURDAY
TRACK has meet at the Academy beginning at 8:00 am.
BASEBALL will play Cibola at 10am
SOFTBALL will play at Cibola at 10am
 
That's all for your morning announcements Hawks

Have a great day.

And remember

As always

It's Great to be a Hawk




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Posted by: grangergang@ymail.com


For more information, go to our web site: http://www.volcanovistahawks.com




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Saturday, April 21, 2018

[californiadisasters] Emergency Manager’s Weekly Report 4-20-18



Good Afternoon Everyone,

 

This week's edition is now available on our new website at:

http://www.emergencymanagersweeklyreport.com/

 

I will resume publication on May 4th.

 

Steve Detwiler

EM Weekly Report Editor




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Posted by: Steve Detwiler <steveorange2011@gmail.com>


Be sure to check out our Links Section at http://groups.yahoo.com/group/californiadisasters/links
Please join our Discussion Group at http://groups.yahoo.com/group/californiadisasters_discussion/ for topical but extended discussions started here or for less topical but nonetheless relevant messages.





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Thursday, April 19, 2018

[californiadisasters] Re: [California's Earthquake Forum] Of Ugly Step-Children & Yahell Frack-ups



I just checked out groups.io and it looks really good-especially the ability to integrate other websites and storage sites. That's my vote. Personally, I think it would breathe new life into the group.

Lin

On Thu, Apr 19, 2018 at 12:54 PM, 'jimrawls' jazzpiano@ca.rr.com [californiasearthquakeforum] <californiasearthquakeforum@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
 

The platform she mentioned is one which has a lot of blind subscribers to different groups, and I can vouch that it is a wonderful platform indeed, as I belong to several groups who use it. Jim

 

From: californiasearthquakeforum@yahoogroups.com [mailto:californiasearthquakeforum@yahoogroups.com]
Sent: Thursday, April 19, 2018 10:11 AM
To: californiasearthquakeforum@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [California's Earthquake Forum] Of Ugly Step-Children & Yahell Frack-ups

 

 

Thanks Kate, it is an interesting platform. We will continue to look at the options, as we have been doing throughout the years. Should the need arise to move the group it would be done, and in such a way and to a platform, which our members find the most the most convenient and useful. This Group has been here on Yahoo, and active, since 2001 despite the many changes the company has gone though.

In short, I and the Group's Co-Owner, Catlan, do not see any compelling need for moving it. As always, your comments are encouraged and welcomed.    

 

On Wednesday, April 18, 2018 4:07 PM, "Kate Hutton katehutton@gmail.com [californiasearthquakeforum]" <californiasearthquakeforum@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

 

 

I've had good luck with groups.io.

 

Kate

 

On Wed, Apr 18, 2018 at 1:43 PM, Hardin Rich hardinrich@sbcglobal.net [californiasearthquakeforum] <californiasearthquakeforum@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

 

I'll take that fight Kim. Because one feature is not working correctly or allowing you access at this time, though I was able to to so, is no reason to get all puffed out of shape. Let's take a look at things and see if any settings have changed or whatever before asking if we should pull up stakes and get out off Yahoo.. Really Kim, Facebook or Twitter? Those are really not set up for the posting that our groups do when something happens. Granted, the amounts of posting here has cooled down from the amounts in the past but what's the big deal? How much has occurred to post about?

You have Cal Disasters on Facebook, how do the replies and topics compare between platforms? Are you getting more information in and out, more in-depth content? From what I see, I do not think so. And, Twitter would be considered a contender platform how? Again, I have seen Cal Disasters on Twitter and it is not the same. Links, short video clips and tweets just do not do it. Maybe it's just me but prefer quality to quantity.. 

 

 

 

 

   

 

On Wednesday, April 18, 2018 11:46 AM, "'jimrawls' jazzpiano@ca.rr.com [californiasearthquakeforum]" <californiasearthquakeforum@ yahoogroups.com> wrote:

 

 

Ok, for me, groups work. So what about setting up this in google groups? If you go to face book etc. I'm out. Jim

From: californiasearthquakeforum@ yahoogroups.com [mailto:californiasearthquakef orum@yahoogroups.com]
Sent: Wednesday, April 18, 2018 11:07 AM
To: CaliforniaDisasters; California's Earthquake Forum
Subject: [California's Earthquake Forum] Of Ugly Step-Children & Yahell Frack-ups

 

 

Today is the 112th anniversary of the last major rupture of the San Andreas Fault Zone in Northern California (Loma Prieta in 1989 was not major). This led to an urban conflagration of San Francisco in the days following for which the disaster is most remembered.

Typically, CaliforniaDisasters and CaliforniasEarthquakeForum members receive automatic Calendar event announcements of this disaster (and others) with a brief description... These were not issued this morning for both groups. In fact, the last automatic one received for CaliforniaDisasters members was February 10, 2018 (two of them) and for CaliforniasEarthquakeForum was February 9, 2018.

This morning I have repeatedly tried to get into the Calendar events feature from within the home page web interface for both groups and received this message each time: "Your access to this calendar is being processed. Please check back later." I'm sorry, but I'm over it!

It is time for the CaliforniaDisasters family to have this discussion again: do we continue on Yahell Groups? What strong arguments remain to keep this version going when the Facebook and Twitter and Reddit versions (especially the Twitter) versions are so much superior and clearly Yahell treats their groups service as their ugly step-children?

For those who feel technologically limited and believe they can only do Yahoo Groups, I'm willing to get on the phone with you and walk you through the process of getting set up on Twitter which is actually quite amazing for our purposes. Retired moderator Gene Salvetti made the same argument in the early part of this decade and I poo-pooed it at the time. Later, I converted, realizing the deepening quietude on the fire and earthquake Yahell groups was not an expression of disinterest in the subject but rather that folks had moved on to better platforms like forums (example: the late Wildlandfire..com Hotlist) and Twitter for sure. Twitter features hundreds and thousands of great fire and earthquake and other disaster accounts of which I follow 802 of them and only share the best and more relevant stuff so even if you only follow me on Twitter you will be getting a very synthesized and cleaned-up stream of useful and relevant information but with visuals like photos and GIFs and even short WEBMs as well as commentary from scientists and first responders and emergency managers, et al.

Let the dialogue commence. For those making the argument we stay here my initial response is FIGHT ME! :-p

Der Gruppen Oberfuhrer


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Error! Filename not specified.

 

Kim Noyes

Error! Filename not specified.about.me/kim.noyes

 

 

 

 

 

 




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Posted by: Lin Kerns <linkerns@gmail.com>


Be sure to check out our Links Section at http://groups.yahoo.com/group/californiadisasters/links
Please join our Discussion Group at http://groups.yahoo.com/group/californiadisasters_discussion/ for topical but extended discussions started here or for less topical but nonetheless relevant messages.





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[californiadisasters] Re: Of Ugly Step-Children & Yahell Frack-ups



I despise twitter and it's limits
facebook selectively limits what's in a persons feed, encouraging content originators to pay to play to push to the group members. (Boost This Post)
Yahell and Google groups seem about equal to me, performance wise. I moderate several groups on each platform


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Posted by: mike_burgess@yahoo.com


Be sure to check out our Links Section at http://groups.yahoo.com/group/californiadisasters/links
Please join our Discussion Group at http://groups.yahoo.com/group/californiadisasters_discussion/ for topical but extended discussions started here or for less topical but nonetheless relevant messages.





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Wednesday, April 18, 2018

[Geology2] Castell de Mur: a major, fatal rockslide in Spain on Monday



Castell de Mur: a major, fatal rockslide in Spain on Monday

Posted by Dave Petley
18 April 2018

Castell de Mur: a major, fatal rockslide in Spain on Monday

On Monday a major rockslide occurred at Castell de Mur, in Catalonia, Spain.  Estimates suggest that this rockslope failure had a mass of about 50,000 tonnes, and a volume of about 20,000 cubic metres.  As the image below shows, the landslide came off of a steep scarp and swept across and buried a highway.  Unfortunately there was a car on the road at the time, and the two occupants were killed.  This image, tweeted by the local fire and rescue service, provides a good overview of the landslide:-

Castell de Mur

An overview image of the rockslide at Castell de Mur, tweeted by the local fire and rescue service

.

Meanwhile, this image, posted by Naciodigital, shows the impact of the landslide on the road:-

Castell de Mur

Image of the rockslide at Castell de Mur. Image posted online by Naciodigital, taken by Pallars Digital.

Carlos Jiméne, an engineering geologist, pointed that this is an area with a history of landslides.  He noted that near to this rockslide there is an abandoned small village called Les Esplugues de Mur. This village had to be abandoned around 70 years ago because of effects of repeated rockslides, which even destroyed some houses. The only remaining building was the church, but this has been destroyed in the rockslide on Monday.  It appears that the landslide on Monday followed a period of heavy rainfall.

It is worth noting the challenges faced by the emergency service in an accident like this.  Accessing the site is very challenging, and of course there is always the risk of further slope collapses.  Moving the boulders, when they are this size, is a great challenge, and of course a rockslide such as this is very traumatic to the victims.

Acknowledgement

Many thanks to Carlos Jiméne, Antoni López-Arenas i Cama  and Oscar van der Velde, all of whom very helpfully and kindly alerted me to this rockslide.  Your help is really appreciated.

Source: https://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2018/04/18/castell-de-mur-1/



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Posted by: Kim Noyes <kimnoyes@gmail.com>



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