Saturday, August 31, 2019

[CaliforniaDisasters] North Ops News & Notes Update (6:25PM)

Glossary: NOD = Northern California District BLM

Dates
Time
News and Notes
08/31/2019 1825 CA-NOD R-1 Ranch Fire: 3,340 acres grass and sage brush, 65% contained. Fire behavior remained minimal with interior pockets of heat occurring under Junipers trees. The threat to structures has been mitigated. There is a continued threat to Critical Sage Grouse Habitat, historical resources and the Tunnison Mountain Wilderness Study Area.
Source: https://gacc.nifc.gov/oncc/news.php
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[CaliforniaDisasters] The Most ‘Evacuation-Challenged’ Communities in the U.S.

StreetLight Data analyzed 100 communities and compiled a list of areas in the country with limited evacuation routes. The data is free and can aid neighborhoods in planning for evacuation or developing infrastructure.

by Jim McKay / August 27, 2019
Cars are backed up on Bridge Street in LaBelle, Fla., heading north Friday, Sept. 8, 2017. Increased traffic in the quiet town was due to Hurricane Irma evacuations, according to locals.

Evacuation planning is one of the most difficult tasks in emergency management, and on evacuation routes, bottlenecks in recent disasters have resulted in loss of life.

That was the impetus for StreetLight Data to conduct a national (plus Canada) analysis of small towns and their evacuation risks in situations like floods, fire, dam breaks, hurricanes, tornadoes and other emergencies.

The results are available for free to government agencies looking to develop disaster evacuation plans or develop improved infrastructure.
The analysis looked at 30,000 towns in the United States with populations under 40,000 and with the results of the analysis, StreetLight Data compiled a list of the most "evacuation-challenged communities."

The states with the most evacuation-challenged communities are:

1.    Florida (20 communities)
2.    California (14)
3.    Arizona (8)
4.    Texas (6)
5.    Washington (6)

"We were developing some cool visualizations about traffic flow, and our CTO saw there was one area where traffic flowed from just one area and thought, 'That would be tough if everyone had to leave at the same time,'" said StreetLight Data CEO Laura Schewel. "That was the genesis for the study."

"So we developed some tools to show these 'car sheds' of driving," she said. "We decided to analyze small towns because those are the ones where you get the most horror stories and they have the most bottlenecks and the least amount of resources to deal with it."

Schewel's team developed an index that looked at a few factors to assess evacuation constraint risk. The first factor is how many total routes out of town there are. Another is, on a typical day, what percentage of people take a certain route, even if there are multiple routes. The last factor was total population.

Even though there may be more than one route out of town, many people would choose a certain route out of ease of use or habit. That's an important factor to know for an emergency manager who is thinking about ordering evacuation. It might prompt an earlier evacuation or calls to use a different route.

Or there may be four routes out of town but three are terrible roads, so 80 percent of the population will seek to travel on that own road. "What we hope is that this data escalates a conversation with authorities to talk about evacuation planning in a more pointed way," Schewel said.

Schewel said the company can also do more rigorous studies for more in-depth transportation planning purposes as well. For example, "How does this part of town differ from another part of town or how is it different in winter and summer?"

The company uses proprietary data processing engine that collects millions of location points from smartphones and GPS navigation devices in autos, and transforms them into contextualized, aggregated travel patterns. It then develops a "main exit load" percentage from the percentage of the population's daily trips that take a main exit.

"We also process Internet of Things data from sensors from things like weigh stations for trucks," Schewel said. "And we turn it into an accurate and aggregated description of what's happening on any road, neighborhood bike lane, offramp, or block in the United States or Canada."
Here are the top 20 U.S. communities with the most constrained evacuation routes:

1.    Camano, Wash.
2.    Hilton Head Island, S.C.
3.    Mercer Island, Wash.
4.    Hutchinson Island, Fla.
5.    Sanibel, Fla.
6.    Fort Myers Beach, Fla.
7.    Carpendale, W. Va.
8.    Pahrump, Nev.
9.    Nahant, Mass.
10.    Skidaway Island, Ga.
11.    North Bay Village, Fla.
12.    South Beach, Fla.
13.    Coto de Caza, Calif.
14.    Golden Beach, Md.
15.    Six Shooter Canyon, Ariz.
16.    Immokalee, Fla.
17.    Hoyt Lakes, Minn.
18.    Bell Canyon, Calif.
19.    Long Beach, N.Y.
20.    Siesta Key, Fla.


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[CaliforniaDisasters] Ridgecrest earthquake shut down cross-fault aftershocks

Ridgecrest earthquake shut down cross-fault aftershocks

By Shinji Toda, Ph.D., IRIDeS, Tohoku University, and Ross Stein, Ph.D., Temblor, Inc.
 
The Magnitude 7.1 earthquake abruptly halted aftershocks on the M 6.4 cross fault. It also produced a far-flung aftershock sequence that touched the San Andreas, but refused to cross the Garlock Fault.
 
Citation: Shinji Toda, and Ross Stein (2019), Ridgecrest earthquake shut down cross-fault aftershocks, Temblor, http://doi.org/10.32858/temblor.043
 

Shutdown

 

A remarkable illustration of how stress controls seismicity was handed to us by the Ridgecrest earthquake sequence. Two perpendicular faults ruptured in the M 6.4 earthquake on July 4 (left panel below), both lighting up in aftershocks. But when the M 7.1 struck 34 hours later, seismicity along the cross fault abruptly stopped (middle panel below). Why?

 

Maps of seismicity and calculated Coulomb stress change for the Ridgecrest sequence. (The calculation is for 'optimally-oriented' strike-slip faults with friction of 0.4 at 10 km depth.)Maps of seismicity and calculated Coulomb stress change for the Ridgecrest sequence. (The calculation is for 'optimally-oriented' strike-slip faults with friction of 0.4 at 10 km depth.)

 

The answer seems to be that the M 7.1 rupture cast a 'stress shadow' over the cross fault, inhibiting failure by several bars, and so shutting aftershocks off. In our calculation of the stress imparted by the M 7.1 (right panel above), the cross fault is 'shadowed,' (blue zones) while the stress increased to the northwest (red zones), to southeast extending across the Garlock Fault. The isolated side lobes also experienced aftershocks to the M 7.1 event. The seismicity shutdown along the cross fault is dramatic when viewed as a time series for M≥1 shocks (below), with the seismicity rate dropping by a factor of 10.

 

In this time series of seismicity for M≥1 earthquakes, each shock is a green 'lollipop,' and the cumulative number of shocks is shown by the blue line. Following the M 7.1, aftershocks on the cross fault didn't get smaller, they just occurred less frequently.In this time series of seismicity for M≥1 earthquakes, each shock is a green 'lollipop,' and the cumulative number of shocks is shown by the blue line. Following the M 7.1, aftershocks on the cross fault didn't get smaller, they just occurred less frequently.

A few bars are not a lot of stress. In the photo below, Ross puts a half a bar of Coulomb stress across the base of his palms by pushing as hard as he can.

 

Ross Stein demoing Coulomb stress. (Photo by Dr. Bob Sabol, United Airlines passenger)Ross Stein demoing Coulomb stress. (Photo by Dr. Bob Sabol, United Airlines passenger)

Stress Shadow

 

Seismic shaking can promote seismicity but not inhibit it, so the shutdown illustrates that small decreases in Coulomb stress can inhibit earthquakes, a phenomenon first discovered in the 1987 Superstition Hills earthquake by Ken Hudnut, Leonardo Seeber and Javier Pacheco (Hudnut et al., 1989), which also shut down seismicity on a cross fault. It was seen again in the 1992 M 7.3 Landers shock (Toda et al., 2012), which shadowed part of the aftershock zone of the M 6.1 Joshua Tree quake that had struck 66 days before. The Joshua Tree shutdown began several days after the Landers shock, but at Ridgecrest, it was immediate. Stress shadows were named by Ruth Harris and Robert Simpson of the USGS, which they argued explained the paucity of large shocks in the century or so after the great 1857 in southern California, and after the great 1906 quake in northern California (Harris and Simpson, 1996). Stress shadows were also hypothesized to explain the shutdown of the southern Hayward Fault after the 1989 Loma Prieta shock (Stein, 1999).

 

Remote Shocks

 

If one steps back from the cross fault, one sees what appear to be aftershocks as much as 150 km (90 mi) from the M 7.1 epicenter in three of the four stress trigger (red and yellow) lobes in the panel at left below, and these appear to correspond to the stress trigger lobes. But are these aftershocks, or just shocks that would have occurred in those remote locations anyway?

 

Calculated Coulomb stress change (along optimally-oriented strike slip faults at 10 km depth with friction of 0.4) is shown at left. Seismicity rate change after the M 7.1 quake is shown at right, in which warm colors indicate rate increases (aftershocks), and turquoise colors indicate rate decreases. Rate decreases are difficult to detect in the weeks after the mainshock.Calculated Coulomb stress change (along optimally-oriented strike slip faults at 10 km depth with friction of 0.4) is shown at left. Seismicity rate change after the M 7.1 quake is shown at right, in which warm colors indicate rate increases (aftershocks), and turquoise colors indicate rate decreases. Rate decreases are difficult to detect in the weeks after the mainshock.

We can answer that question by plotting the change in the seismicity rate, comparing the first 11 days after the M 7.1 to the preceding year (above right). Here, the warm colors are places where the seismicity rate increased after the M 7.1, light blue areas are where it decreased. Now, all four stress trigger lobes appear to correspond to seismicity rate increases (e.g., aftershocks), and they extend all the way to the San Andreas Fault at Tejon Pass and Cajon Pass.

 

San Andreas in play?

 

What do the subtle, or perhaps apparent, seismicity increases at the two big bends on the San Andreas Fault mean for future great quakes? We do not know. We can say only that the effects, while promoting failure, are very small, about the same as the twice-daily tidal stresses.

 

The Garlock Wall

 

But if the shutdown and remote shocks can be explained by stress transfer, another feature of the aftershocks is mysterious. If you glance again at the Coulomb stress lobes, you can see that the stress trigger zone extends well to the south of the Garlock Fault, but the M 7.1 aftershocks do not. That is even clearer in the map below: The Garlock is a wall.

 

Neither the preceding decade of quakes (in blue) nor the Ridgecrest aftershocks (in red) cross the Garlock Fault, but aftershocks extend outward in most other directions.Neither the preceding decade of quakes (in blue) nor the Ridgecrest aftershocks (in red) cross the Garlock Fault, but aftershocks extend outward in most other directions.

Why would a fault be a barrier to aftershocks? We can think of two explanations, but we can't prove either. The first is that Coulomb stress changes amplify the background seismicity rate (this follows from the theory of rate/state friction developed by Jim Dieterich at the USGS; Dieterich, 1994). If the background rate is high (those are where there are many blue shocks above), then the seismicity will be very responsive to the stress changes. That seems to be what happened at the Coso Volcanic Field, which was active before the M 7.1, was stressed by the M 7.1, and produced abundant aftershocks. But if its near-zero, as it appears to be south of the Garlock, the stress changes have almost no effect.

 

Even if that explanation were correct, that would not explain why the northern Mojave Desert, south of the Garlock Fault, was so quiet in the first place? Perhaps because it is composed of different rocks than the material to the north. The Garlock has slipped a total of ~100 km (60 mi), juxtaposing different chunks of crust. To the north lies mostly granitic rocks, and to the south lies mostly volcanic rocks (see the map below). Somehow, rock type might modulate seismicity.

 

Geologic map of the Ridgecrest area (Jennings et al., 1962), labeled by type of bedrock. The yellow veneer of sediments blanket some of the bedrock. Aftershocks of the Ridgecrest sequence are red; the preceding decade of quakes are blue.Geologic map of the Ridgecrest area (Jennings et al., 1962), labeled by type of bedrock. The yellow veneer of sediments blanket some of the bedrock. Aftershocks of the Ridgecrest sequence are red; the preceding decade of quakes are blue.

 

So, what did we learn?

 

The Ridgecrest sequence demonstrates how Coulomb stress controls seismicity. Ridgecrest has also produced an exceptionally distributed aftershock sequence that just kisses the San Andreas, but refuses to cross the Garlock Fault.

 

Ridgecrest fault rupture, with a main rupture and distributed faulting over 20 m (70 ft). Photo by USGS. To see a series of fault rupture images, see Stewart et al. (2019).Ridgecrest fault rupture, with a main rupture and distributed faulting over 20 m (70 ft). Photo by USGS. To see a series of fault rupture images, see Stewart et al. (2019).

 

References

 

James Dieterich (1994), A constitutive law for rate of earthquake production and its application to earthquake clustering, J. Geophys. Res., 99, 2601-2618, doi.org/10.1029/93JB02581.

Ruth A. Harris and Robert W. Simpson (1996), In the shadow of 1857—the effect of the great Ft. Tejon earthquake on subsequent earthquakes in southern California. Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 229–232, doi.org/10.1029/96GL00015

Kenneth W. Hudnut, Leonardo Seeber, and Javier Pacheco (1989), Cross‐fault triggering in the November 1987 Superstition Hills Earthquake Sequence, southern California, Geophys. Res. Letts., 16, 199-202, doi.org/10.1029/GL016i002p00199.

Charles W. Jennings, John L. Burnett, and Bernie W. Troxel (1962), Geologic Map of California, Trona Sheet, Scale 1:250,000, California Geological Survey, Sacramento.

Ross S. Stein (1999), The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence, Nature, 402, 605–609, doi.org/10.1038/45144.

Jonathan P. Stewart, Editor (2019), Preliminary Report on Engineering and Geological Effects of the July 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence, Report GEER-064, issued July 19, 2019, 69 p., http://geerassociation.org/administrator/components/com_geer_reports/geerfiles/GEER_Ridgecrest_report_ver1.pdf  

Shinji Toda, Ross S. Stein, Gregory C. Beroza and David Marsan (2012), Aftershocks halted by static stress shadows, Nature Geoscience, 5, 410–413, doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1465


Source: https://temblor.net/earthquake-insights/ridgecrest-earthquake-shut-down-cross-fault-aftershocks-9249/
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[CaliforniaDisasters] South Ops News & Notes Update (8/28/2019-6:10PM)

Glossary:
DPA = Direct Protection Area
FRA = Federal Responsibility Area

Date
Time
News and Notes
08/28/2019 1810

Federal
Springs, Vegetation Fire, Mono County, Update
13 miles southeast of Lee Vining
Federal DPA, FRA Inyo National Forest

  • 3,844 (+740) acres, grass and brush, 50% contained (+9% containment)
  • Moderate rate of spread with flanking, backing and single tree torching
  • Suppression strategy is monitor/confine
  • Incident submitting one ICS-209 Thursdays at 1800

Cow, Vegetation Fire, Tulare County, Update
Golden Trout Wilderness, 13 miles west of Olancha
Federal DPA, FRA Inyo National Forest

  • 1,075 (+895) acres, grass and brush, 20% contained (+19% containment)
  • Active fire behavior with flanking, backing, and creeping
  • Suppression strategy is monitor/confine
  • Incident submitting one ICS-209 Thursdays at 1800

Kelty, Vegetation Fire, Mono County, Update
13 miles west of Benton
Federal DPA, FRA Inyo National Forest

  • 4 (+.5) acres grass and brush, 0% contained (-0% containment)
  • Minimal fire behavior with creeping and smoldering
  • Suppression strategy is monitor/confine
  • Incident submitting one ICS-209 Thursdays at 1800

Broder, Vegetation Fire, Tulare County, Update
Broder Meadow
Federal DPA, FRA Sequoia National Forest

  • 235 (+95) acres, grass and brush, 10% contained (-30% containment)
  • Moderate fire behavior with backing and creeping
  • Suppression strategy is monitor/contain
  • Reporting on incident once a week Thursdays at 1800
Source: https://gacc.nifc.gov/oscc/news.php
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[CaliforniaDisasters] North Ops News & Notes Update (8/31/2019-9:30AM)

Glossary: NOD = Northern California District BLM

Dates
Time
News and Notes
08/31/2019 0930 CA-NOD R-1 Fire: 3,340 acres grass and sage brush, 35% contained. Minimal fire behavior occurred overnight with a majority of the fire activity occurring on the southeast portion of the incident. California Type 2 IMT, Team 16 has assumed command of the incident.
08/30/2019 1800 CA-NOD R-1 Fire: 3340 acres grass and sage brush, 35% contained. Fire behavior was moderate today. Very rocky terrain with limited access is hampering suppression efforts. One historic cabin is threatened with three remote residential ranches under precautionary evacuation. 900 acres of Sage Grouse habitat has been burned. There is a continued threat to Sage Grouse habitat, grazing allotments, and prehistoric cultural resources. IMT 16 will assume command of the incident at 0600 tomorrow.
08/30/2019 0815 CA-NOD R-1 Fire: 1800 acres grass and sage brush, 15% contained. Fire is located 9 miles east of Eagle Lake. Fire behavior was moderate with flanking and torching. Very rocky terrain with limited access is hampering suppression efforts. One historic cabin is threatened with three remote residential ranches under precautionary evacuation. There is a threat to Sage Grouse habitat, grazing allotments, and prehistoric cultural resources. A type 2 short team has been ordered to support logistical needs.
Source:

Last update: August 31, 2019 9:36

Dates
Time
News and Notes
08/31/2019 0930 CA-NOD R-1 Fire: 3,340 acres grass and sage brush, 35% contained. Minimal fire behavior occurred overnight with a majority of the fire activity occurring on the southeast portion of the incident. California Type 2 IMT, Team 16 has assumed command of the incident.
08/30/2019 1800 CA-NOD R-1 Fire: 3340 acres grass and sage brush, 35% contained. Fire behavior was moderate today. Very rocky terrain with limited access is hampering suppression efforts. One historic cabin is threatened with three remote residential ranches under precautionary evacuation. 900 acres of Sage Grouse habitat has been burned. There is a continued threat to Sage Grouse habitat, grazing allotments, and prehistoric cultural resources. IMT 16 will assume command of the incident at 0600 tomorrow.
08/30/2019 0815 CA-NOD R-1 Fire: 1800 acres grass and sage brush, 15% contained. Fire is located 9 miles east of Eagle Lake. Fire behavior was moderate with flanking and torching. Very rocky terrain with limited access is hampering suppression efforts. One historic cabin is threatened with three remote residential ranches under precautionary evacuation. There is a threat to Sage Grouse habitat, grazing allotments, and prehistoric cultural resources. A type 2 short team has been ordered to support logistical needs.
Source: https://gacc.nifc.gov/oncc/news.php
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[CaliforniaDisasters] What If the Biggest Solar Storm on Record Happened Today?

Repeat of 1859 Carrington Event would devastate modern world, experts say.

On February 14 (2011) the sun erupted with the largest solar flare seen in four years—big enough to interfere with radio communications and GPS signals for airplanes on long-distance flights.

As solar storms go, the Valentine's Day flare was actually modest. But the burst of activity is only the start of the upcoming solar maximum, due to peak in the next couple of years.

"The sun has an activity cycle, much like hurricane season," Tom Bogdan, director of the Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colorado, said earlier this month at a meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Washington, D.C.

"It's been hibernating for four or five years, not doing much of anything." Now the sun is waking up, and even though the upcoming solar maximum may see a record low in the overall amount of activity, the individual events could be very powerful.

In fact, the biggest solar storm on record happened in 1859, during a solar maximum about the same size as the one we're entering, according to NASA.

That storm has been dubbed the Carrington Event, after British astronomer Richard Carrington, who witnessed the megaflare and was the first to realize the link between activity on the sun and geomagnetic disturbances on Earth.

During the Carrington Event, northern lights were reported as far south as Cuba and Honolulu, while southern lights were seen as far north as Santiago, Chile. (See pictures of auroras generated by the Valentine's Day solar flare.)

The flares were so powerful that "people in the northeastern U.S. could read newspaper print just from the light of the aurora," Daniel Baker, of the University of Colorado's Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, said at a geophysics meeting last December.

In addition, the geomagnetic disturbances were strong enough that U.S. telegraph operators reported sparks leaping from their equipment—some bad enough to set fires, said Ed Cliver, a space physicist at the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory in Bedford, Massachusetts.

In 1859, such reports were mostly curiosities. But if something similar happened today, the world's high-tech infrastructure could grind to a halt.

"What's at stake," the Space Weather Prediction Center's Bogdan said, "are the advanced technologies that underlie virtually every aspect of our lives."

Solar Flare Would Rupture Earth's "Cyber Cocoon"

To begin with, the University of Colorado's Baker said, electrical disturbances as strong as those that took down telegraph machines—"the Internet of the era"—would be far more disruptive. (See "The Sun—Living With a Stormy Star" in National Geographic magazine.)

Solar storms aimed at Earth come in three stages, not all of which occur in any given storm.

First, high-energy sunlight, mostly x-rays and ultraviolet light, ionizes Earth's upper atmosphere, interfering with radio communications. Next comes a radiation storm, potentially dangerous to unprotected astronauts.

Finally comes a coronal mass ejection, or CME, a slower moving cloud of charged particles that can take several days to reach Earth's atmosphere. When a CME hits, the solar particles can interact with Earth's magnetic field to produce powerful electromagnetic fluctuations. (Related: "Magnetic-Shield Cracks Found; Big Solar Storms Expected.")

"We live in a cyber cocoon enveloping the Earth," Baker said. "Imagine what the consequences might be."

Of particular concern are disruptions to global positioning systems (GPS), which have become ubiquitous in cell phones, airplanes, and automobiles, Baker said. A $13 billion business in 2003, the GPS industry is predicted to grow to nearly $1 trillion by 2017.

In addition, Baker said, satellite communications—also essential to many daily activities—would be at risk from solar storms.

"Every time you purchase a gallon of gas with your credit card, that's a satellite transaction," he said.

But the big fear is what might happen to the electrical grid, since power surges caused by solar particles could blow out giant transformers. Such transformers can take a long time to replace, especially if hundreds are destroyed at once, said Baker, who is a co-author of a National Research Council report on solar-storm risks.

The U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory's Cliver agrees: "They don't have a lot of these on the shelf," he said.

The eastern half of the U.S. is particularly vulnerable, because the power infrastructure is highly interconnected, so failures could easily cascade like chains of dominoes.

"Imagine large cities without power for a week, a month, or a year," Baker said. "The losses could be $1 to $2 trillion, and the effects could be felt for years."

Even if the latest solar maximum doesn't bring a Carrington-level event, smaller storms have been known to affect power and communications.

The "Halloween storms" of 2003, for instance, interfered with satellite communications, produced a brief power outage in Sweden, and lighted up the skies with ghostly auroras as far south as Florida and Texas.

Buffing Up Space-Weather Predictions

One solution is to rebuild the aging power grid to be less vulnerable to solar disruptions.

Another is better forecasting. Scientists using the new Solar Dynamics Observatory spacecraft are hoping to get a better understanding of how the sun behaves as it moves deeper into its next maximum and begins generating bigger storms. (See some of SDO's first sun pictures.)

These studies may help scientists predict when and where solar flares might appear and whether a given storm is pointed at Earth.

"Improved predictions will provide more accurate forecasts, so [officials] can take mitigating actions," said Rodney Viereck, a physicist at the Space Weather Prediction Center.

Even now, the center's Bogdan said, the most damaging emissions from big storms travel slowly enough to be detected by sun-watching satellites well before the particles strike Earth. "That gives us [about] 20 hours to determine what actions we need to take," Viereck said.

In a pinch, power companies could protect valuable transformers by taking them offline before the storm strikes. That would produce local blackouts, but they wouldn't last for long.

"The good news is that these storms tend to pass after a couple of hours," Bogdan added.

Meanwhile, scientists are scrambling to learn everything they can about the sun in an effort to produce even longer-range forecasts.

According to Vierick, space-weather predictions have some catching up to do: "We're back where weather forecasters were 50 years ago."



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[CaliforniaDisasters] Updated Event: 1986 Aeroméxico 498 Crash Anniversary - Saturday, 31 August 2019 #cal-invite

1986 Aeroméxico 498 Crash Anniversary

When:
Saturday, 31 August 2019

Where:
Cerritos - Los Angeles County

Organizer: Kim Patrick Noyes

Description:

The 1986 Cerritos midair collision was a plane crash that occurred in southern California over the Los Angeles suburb of Cerritos on Sunday, August 31, 1986. Aeroméxico Flight 498, a McDonnell Douglas DC-9, was clipped in the tail section by N4891F, a Piper PA-28-181 Archer owned by the Kramer family, while descending into Los Angeles International Airport, killing all 67 on both aircraft and an additional fifteen on the ground. Eight on the ground also sustained minor injuries from the midday crash.

Blame was allocated equally between the Federal Aviation Administration and the pilot of the Piper. No fault was found with the DC-9 or the actions of its crew.

On Sunday, August 31, 1986 at about 11:46 am PDT, Flight 498 began its descent into Los Angeles with 58 passengers and six crew members on board. At 11:52 am, the Piper's engine collided with the left horizontal stabilizer of the DC-9, shearing off the top of the Piper's cockpit and decapitating Kramer and both of his passengers. The heavily damaged Piper fell onto an empty playground at Cerritos Elementary School.

The DC-9, with all of its horizontal stabilizer and most of its vertical stabilizer torn off, inverted and immediately entered a dive. It slammed into a residential neighborhood at Holmes Avenue and Reva Circle in Cerritos, crashing into the backyard of a house at 13426 Ashworth Place, exploding on impact. The explosion scattered the DC-9's wreckage across Holmes Avenue and onto Carmenita Road, destroying four other houses and damaging seven more. All 64 passengers and crew on board the DC-9 were killed, and fifteen people on the ground; a fire added to the damage.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1986_Cerritos_mid-air_collision

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[CaliforniaDisasters] On This Date In California Weather History (August 31)

2017: Strong thunderstorms struck the Inland Empire in Wildomar, Corona and Colton.
A gust of 65 mph was reported in the Temescal Valley.
Downburst thunderstorm winds toppled trees and power lines in Wildomar.
Lightning struck a transformer in Colton, knocking out power.
Damage was incurred in mobile homes in east Corona.

2013: Potent monsoonal thunderstorms impacted transportation across the Mojave Desert.
Interestate-15 was shut down in both directions due to flashflooding.
An auto got stuck in the road on Hwy 190 at Scotty's Castle Road.
Hwy 190 was closed at Death Valley Junction due to flashflooding.
Hwy 190/Hwy 136 junction near Keeler closed due to flashflooding.
Multiple instances of water and debris across roads in Landers.

2007: A severe thunderstorm in Lake Elsinore produced severe winds, which downed trees, power lines and caused roof damage.
Another heavy thunderstorm hit Wrightwood and produced a debris flow that damaged roads along Sheep Creek and trapped motorists.
This was the first of 3 consecutive days (also 9.1 and 9.2) of flash flooding in Wrightwood.
Other thunderstorms dropped a blanket of hail over vast areas between Big Bear Lake and the San Gorgonio Wilderness.
A significant accumulation of small hail was seen for many days at the top of Mt. San Gorgonio.

1998: Thunderstorm wind at 45 knots from the east swept into the Paradise Cove area along the south shore of Lake Isabella.   
Downed powerlines sparked a grass fire (Yankee  Fire) that subsequently burned 1,100 acres at a cost to suppress of $1M.  
There was one injury due to smoke inhalation. 
Moored boats and jet skies were endangered by the high wind at docks along the south shore. 
FlashFlood Warning erroneously issued in conjunction with Severe Thunderstorm Warning ... no verification on the FFW. 
Blowing dust was observed by several trained spotters at points east of the lake and along the south side of the lake.   
The Yankee Fire was contained on 9/2/98.

1998: Yuma, AZ, sets their all time record warm low temperature at 94° F.

1998: Strong thunderstorms developed each day starting on 8.29 and ending on this day.
1.5" of rain fell at Apple Valley, 0.77" fell in only 45 minutes at Wrightwood, and 0.68" fell in only 30 minutes at Forest Falls.
Homes and roads were flooded with 4'-6' of water in Hesperia and Apple Valley.
Rock slides occurred in Mill Creek.
Roads were flooded in Sugarloaf and Forest Falls.
Flash flooding was also recorded in Hemet.
Severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 86 mph hit Sage (south of Hemet).
Gusts of 50 mph were recorded at Rialto and gusts of 45 mph hit San Marcos.
Trees and power lines were downed. Fires were started by lightning near Barona Ranch.
Record heat occurred near the coast as well on these same days.
Temperatures hit 112° F in Yorba Linda, 110° F in Hemet and Riverside, and over 100° F in most of Orange County.
It was 114° F in Dulzura on 8.29.

1987: Thunderstorms moved into the southern portion of the San Joaquin Valley in Kern County from the Tehachapis.
Straight line wind damage occurred to several farm buildings.
5 dairy cows were killed and 7 injured.
Bakersfield recorded a wind gust of 49 mph from the south.

1986: High surf generated by Hurricane Javier, a onetime Category 4 hurricane southwest of Baja, arrived at the beaches Southern California just in time for an international surfing competition.
Waves as big as 15 feet were reported.

1977: The wettest August on record in San Diego ended on this day with 2.13".

1972: Hurricane Hyacinth moved as far west as 125 West before recurving to the northeast.
The remnants made landfall between Los Angeles and San Diego on 9.3 with winds of 25 mph and rainfall of up to one inch in the mountains from 8.29 to 9.6.
This tropical cyclone holds the distinction of traveling the farthest west before recurving and making landfall in Southern California.
This occurred during the El Niño of 1972-73.
Only 0.44" was measured in San Diego.

1967: Hurricane Katrina crossed the southern tip of Baja California, then traversed almost the entire length of the Gulf of California before making landfall again and rapidly weakening.
More than 2" of rain fell on 8.30 and on this day.
2" fell at La Quinta and the city was cut off for several hours.
150 homes were damaged by floods in Palm Desert and Indian Wells.
Numerous roads were washed out in the Coachella Valley.
The Fort Irwin road north of Barstow was flooded, isolating the army base on 8.30.

1964: Fresno received 0.25" of rain, making it the wettest August day ever.
Hanford also had its wettest day ever in August with 0.34" of rain.

1955: A prolonged heat wave started on this day and ended on 9/7.
It was 110° in LA on 9/1, an all-time record.
It was 98° in San Diego and 103° in Santa Ana on this day, both highest temperatures on record for August.
On 9/2 a reading of 120° was reported from Tujunga.
Four deaths and 57 cases of heat prostration were reported in the Los Angeles region.

1944: All-time record stretch of consecutive days with a high in the triple digits in Las Vegas, NV, ends at 66 days.

1939: Sea surface temperatures off the coast for the month of August were in the upper 70s, with some reports near San Diego of 80° F.
This occurred ahead of the tropical storms of the following month of 9.1939.

1928: It was 42° F in Escondido, the lowest temperature on record for August.

1889: LA recorded its greatest 24 hour rainfall amount for August at 0.61".

1887: Fresno had a record low of 50° F.
This is the oldest temperature record for Fresno still in the books.

Source: NWS Hanford, Las Vegas, Phoenix, & San Diego

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[CaliforniaDisasters] Video shot from air tanker as it drops on the R-1 Ranch Fire [VIDEO]

Posted on August 31, 2019
R-1 Ranch Fire air tanker drop

This is video shot August 29 from the Single Engine Air Tanker (SEAT) piloted by Jim Watson on the R-1 Ranch Fire 13 miles northeast of Susanville, California. He was working out of the Air Tanker Base at Chester, California. You may notice that the aircraft is following another SEAT that makes a drop ahead of him.


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[CaliforniaDisasters] On This Date In California Weather History (August 30)

2012: Thunderstorms erupted in the mountains above Cathedral City.
Major flash flooding in Cathedral City included 1'-2' of rapidly moving water, closing several
roads.
Water forced mud and debris into several businesses in town, causing significant damage.
A thunderstorm produced 1.53" in one hour at March AFB in Riverside.
Flash flooding in Moreno Valley went into a few homes.
A rescue was needed to save a stranded motorist.
Several roads and freeways were closed because of water and/or mud.

2008:
A large and severe thunderstorm produced flash flooding and severe hail in the San Jacinto Mountains.
Flash floods up to three feet deep carried rocks and mud and covered many roads in Idyllwild-Fern Valley.
The storm dropped hailstones in size from marbles to walnuts (1.5" in diameter).
Hail injured two during an already progressing search and rescue operation at Suicide Rock.
These are the only documented injuries resulting from direct hail impact in California history.
Also, a helicopter made an emergency landing.
Another thunderstorm produced a minor flash flood in Forest Falls.

2007: Strong high pressure caused excessively hot temperatures to develop over the southern San Joaquin Valley during the end of August, 2007. 
Energy officials urged valley residents to conserve energy during this time period, between the 30th and 31st. 
The temperature at Meadows Field in Bakersfield hit 104° F. 
The nighttime heat index on the night of the 30th remained at or above 82 degrees.  These temperatures met critical criteria for heat advisory conditions in the San Joaquin Valley.
Latest in the season Fresno has ever had a low temperature of 80° F or better, low temperature for the day was 81° F.

2007: Strong monsoonal thunderstorms and lightning brought a tree down on South Santa Fe Street in Visalia and caused power outages in Visalia and Dinuba. 
A sidewalk and wrought-iron fence were damaged in Visalia.

1998: Strong thunderstorms developed each day starting on 8.29 and ending on 8.31.
1.5" of rain fell at Apple Valley, 0.77" fell in only 45 minutes at Wrightwood, and 0.68" fell in only 30 minutes at Forest Falls.
Homes and roads were flooded with four to six feet of water in Hesperia and Apple Valley.
Rock slides occurred in Mill Creek.
Roads were flooded in Sugarloaf and Forest Falls.
Flash flooding was also recorded in Hemet.
Severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 86 mph hit Sage (south of Hemet).
Gusts of 50 mph were recorded at Rialto and gusts of 45 mph hit San Marcos.
Trees and power lines were downed.
Record heat occurred near the coast as well on these same days.
Temperatures hit 112° F in Yorba Linda, 110° F in Hemet and Riverside, and over 100° F in most of Orange County.
It was 114° F in Dulzura on 8.29.

1998: The high temperature at Hawthorne, NV was 102° F.

1972: Hurricane Hyacinth moved as far west as 125 West before recurving to the northeast.
The remnants made landfall between Los Angeles and San Diego on 9.3 with winds of 25 mph and rainfall of up to one inch in the mountains from 8.29 to 9.6.
This tropical cyclone holds the distinction of traveling the farthest west before recurving and making landfall in Southern California.
This occurred during the El Niño of 1972-73.
Only 0.44" was measured in San Diego.

1972: A cloud burst associated with Tropical Storm Gwen off the coast of southern California dropped 0.99" of rain falling 14 miles southwest of Coalinga in the Bear Canyon Jupiter area resulting in flash flooding.

1968: Palo Alto had a high temperature of 101° F -- a record for the month.

1967: Hurricane Katrina crossed the southern tip of Baja California, then traversed almost the entire length of the Gulf of California before making landfall again and rapidly weakening.
More than two inches of rain fell on this day and on 8.31.
2" fell at La Quinta and the city was cut off for several hours.
150 homes were damaged by floods in Palm Desert and Indian Wells.
Numerous roads were washed out in the Coachella Valley.
The Fort Irwin road north of Barstow was flooded, isolating the army base on this day.

1967: A seven foot wall of water unleashed by thunderstorms swept down the Armargosa River(S. NV & E. CA) washing away trailers, automobiles and houses as well as drowning horses.

1966: The low temperature in Fresno plunged to 49° F, setting an all-time record low for the month of August.
This is also the earliest in the season Fresno has seen a low temperature in the 40's.

1957: It was 52° F in Palm Springs, the lowest temperature on record for August.
This also occurred on 8.27.1954.

1909: A heavy thunderstorm in the San Bernardino Mountains produced flood waters that damaged businesses in San Bernardino.

Source: NWS San Francisco/Monterey, Hanford, Reno, Las Vegas, Phoenix, & San Diego

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