Friday, July 11, 2014

Re: [californiadisasters] Re:[OT} Yarnell recap



It was probably due to a variety of factors (including poor communications, poor management of air resources, your aforementioned firenado, a thunderstorm collapsing and sending out a gust front which was contrary to the prevailing wind direction, etc.) much like in a plane crash where if you take one link out of the chain of events nothing tragic happens. Government FUBAR on several fronts to be sure but there has also been this recurring question of why Granite Mountain moved from a safe place in the black and crossed a brushfield to fight fire in Yarnell when they were not instructed to do so. Some in the biz have suggested their boss as good as he was got stuck in a urban interface FF-ing mindset of trying to save homes given that they worked for the City of Prescott and that more traditional hotshot crews might not have made that same choice. I personally have no opinion on this matter.


On Fri, Jul 11, 2014 at 5:03 PM, Rick WA6NHC HappyMoosePhoto@gmail.com [californiadisasters] <californiadisasters@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
 

If the son has the talent of the father, he will do well.  The father has that rare talent, to draw the reader into the story and be a part of it (and the era).  THAT is why books are better than movies.

I won't be reading those particular books (and not because it triggers a nap like most reading).  For a current firefighter or someone interested in that line of history, they can enhance the dry facts learned in classrooms.  They bring humanity to the 'lessons learned', increasing understanding and depth.  But I'm no longer involved with that business and have spent a large part of my retirement trying to forget some of the stuff that happens/ed.  My involvement now is peripheral only because I left folks behind and because I still like to be aware of events around me (situational awareness).  My self introduction starts with "Once I was a Fire Captain; but now I feel MUCH better...".  The job was great, I have no complaints and most of the parts still function, but retirement is better. ;0)

But I'll admit that the books are probably more accurate than the initial Yarnell report (a prime example of many empty words, being evasive, careful, no blame finger pointing, in short a government CYA document that says/explains nothing in a lot of words).  I haven't spoken about this much, it's still too fresh to me (drove near there a few months ago and had a schedule to keep, so I didn't stop on scene but they were remembered). Befuddlement is what the government excels at, this report is an example.

I suspect that the final report version will include mention of a little understood effect now called Firenado which under extreme conditions the winds (and heat created fire cumulus) create a fire tornado.  Just prior to that occurrence, weird, extreme but explainable 'stuff' happens at ground level.  Short version:  No matter where they were on that slope when it happened, they were screwed, there was no safe haven or time to get there; it was simply an instantaneous unsurvivable environment.  It isn't fair, makes little sense to anyone and provides little comfort or 'lessons learned' (although the standard fire orders and 13 watch outs etc. will still be reinforced as they should be) and it frankly sucks.  On first view, the team did exactly what they were trained to do but events unfolded too quickly to react effectively and training wasn't enough.  The overwatch (overhead, air support, backup and overall support system) also failed, BIG TIME.  File it under "S" because Stuff happens; but LEARN from it; "Stuff" happens.  If there must be blame, call it ignorance (a curable disease best treated with education); no one knew enough.

There will also be some diatribe on improving communications, poor management skills (the overhead), additional training needed and similar (yada yada yada, S O S again).  It will all be carefully couched so that no one person or agency will take the blame, alone or shared, creating any liability for civil action.  The initial findings made this approach abundantly clear; no one aspect is the cause, stuff happens.

My dream is that a new lessons learned will evolve so this can never happen again; that real education happens.  The ever increasing risks (climate change and poor forest management resulting in more catastrophic fires) demand this.  The reality is far harsher as it drifts out of public awareness.  In this day and age, it is simply not excusable or acceptable to lose an entire crew or even one individual on any fire.  We can and MUST do better; if only for the surviving parents, spouses, siblings and children.  The costs are simply too high to be acceptable.

Yah, I may be a cynic on many things, but I've watched the human condition (and our government) for a long time and I've learned what to expect.  I'd be ecstatic to be wrong on this one. We'll see.

Rick



On 7/11/2014 3:16 PM, Bill wskrayen@gmail.com [californiadisasters] wrote:
 
Yes, he's the son. He has written books on the South Canyon Fire,  30 Mile Canyon fire, and the Esperanza fire.  They are well researched and documented books.  Based on some of what I've been reading, I guessing, he going to do one on the Yarnell Fire also.  His research already found there was no 30 min gap in radio comms.


I have" A River Runs Through It" also.  I agree with you, but the book is even better, as are the other 2 stories in the same book.  USFS 1919: The Ranger, the Cook, and a Hole in the Sky, from thebook was also made in to a movie, with Sam Elliot playing the ranger. 

William Krayenhagen
Stockton,Ca




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