Earthquake prediction may have taken a giant leap forward
Posted: Oct 27, 2014
A new study published in the journal Nature Geoscience may provide some of the best evidence yet for earthquake precursors. Spikes of sodium and hydrogen in well water warned of mounting strain before two recent Iceland earthquakes.
With help from collaborators in Iceland, a geochemist at Stockholm University in Sweden named Alasdair Skelton, checked the water content of a 330-foot-deep artesian well near the town of Hsavk every week between 2008 and 2013. Certain elements started rising four to six months before a magnitude-5.6 earthquake on Oct. 21, 2012. The pattern repeated before a magnitude-5.5 earthquake on April 2, 2013.
The Húsavík-Flatey Fault in Iceland. Mineral levels in groundwater near the fault changed before two earthquakes. (Alasdair Skelton)
But this isn't the first time well water has had chemical shifts before earthquakes on Iceland. Skelton also noted similar wiggles in 2002, when several metals in a deeper, hotter Hsavk well jumped a few weeks before a magnitude-5.8 earthquake and then sank back down. The study was published in August 2004 in the journal Geology.
No scientist or seismologist has ever been able to accurately predict an earthquake. Sure, we have all heard the stories about dogs and cats going crazy, birds crashing into buildings, and bugs disappearing hours or days before an event. But no one has discovered any reliable precursors to one of the most dangerous and destructive natural hazards on the planet.
The San Andreas Fault in California. The most active fault in the United States with the potential to harm many as nearly 50 million people are living within 100 miles of the system.
But this "discovery" in Iceland, may not be a discovery at all, more like confirming a previous rumor that has been roaming the ears of seismologists for decades. Scientists in Japan saw groundwater chemistry and radon levels shift before the 1995 Kobe earthquake and the 1978 Izu-Oshima earthquake. Similar swings appeared before a 1976 quake in Tangshan, China.
However, the difference with this earthquake than of its predecessors is that it happened on Iceland. Iceland is basically one big volcano which can toy with concentration of certain materials in ground water. Magma shifts can cause not only ground water fluctuations but can obviously cause earthquakes themselves. So are the sodium and hydrogen spikes caused by a magma shift which ultimately lead to an earthquake, or is it a precursor to all earthquakes? Or does it have anything to do with either one? These are the questions that don't have answers, and my never be known.
Area that could be affected by the dormant New Madrid fault. Considered Americas most dangerous fault line. Because of its recent discovery, buildings have not been built to withstand a large earthquake. The result of "the big one" happening here could be far more catastrophic than anything America has ever seen.
Regardless though, the findings are promising. Many scientists believe that earthquake prediction is impossible and cannot be done without significant technological advances. But the new findings may be just what the community needs to continue research that has been dormant for years. For all our sake, I hope it's not impossible because earthquake prediction could save countless lives in the future.
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