Japan Meteorological Agency blows volcano eruption forecasts over 80% of the time
JIJI
- Oct 25, 2014
Less than 20 percent of volcanic eruption forecasts made by the Meteorological Agency have proved successful, it was learned Saturday.
According to data provided by the agency, a total of 21 eruption warnings have been issued for nine volcanos in the country since December 2007, but there have been only four actual explosions, showing how difficult it is to make successful near-term eruption forecasts.
There are 110 active volcanos nationwide, and alert levels have been raised to warn of possible explosions for 10 of them since the warning system was introduced about seven years ago. The agency data cover nine mountains, excluding Sakurajima in Kagoshima Prefecture, which erupts very frequently.
Among the nine, one of two eruption forecasts proved successful for Mount Meakan in Hokkaido, both forecasts for Mount Asama, which lies between Gunma and Nagano prefectures, and 1 in 4 for the Kirishima mountain range, straddling the prefectural border between Miyazaki and Kagoshima.
Officials at the agency's volcano division conceded that, despite the four successful forecasts, they remain unable to predict exactly where such an event will happen or how long it will continue.
The agency has never succeeded in predicting eruptions for the other six mountains. This includes the eruption of Mount Ontake on Sept. 27, the deadliest volcanic blast in postwar Japan.
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