then they're worse than nothing.
It will be interesting to see where Japan's seawalls failed to keep the
tsunami out but kept the receding water in.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Louis N. Molino, Sr." <lnmolino@aol.com>
To: <californiadisasters@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Thursday, March 17, 2011 10:32 AM
Subject: Re: [californiadisasters] California's faults are not like Japan's
Sendai had a seawall. I think. BTW so did Galveston, Texas.
Louis N. Molino, Sr. CET
FF/NREMT/FSI/EMSI
Training Program Manager
Fire & Safety Specialists, Inc.
Typed by my fingers on my iPhone.
Please excuse any typos.
(979) 412-0890 (Cell)
(979) 690-7559 (Office)
(979) 690-7562 (Office Fax)
LNMolino@aol.com
Lou@fireworld.com
On Mar 17, 2011, at 11:54, Kim Noyes <kimnoyes@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
> None of us knows all the facts on this yet, but I will say this much: I'm
rather surprised and curious as to why there was no sea wall protecting
those back-up generators when the Japanese have sea walls built along other
sections of their coast.
>
> As to Diablo and global warming: that 85 foot bluff should do fine with
rising sea waters.... nobody is suggesting that the seas will rise 85 feet
over the next 20 years by which time the plant will have been shut down.
>
> Due caution is a good thing and avoiding "failures of the imagination" to
quote the 9/11 report is good.
>
> However, to breathlessly suggest Diablo Canyon's 85 foot bluffs are gonna
get swallowed in the next 20 years while the plant's final run plays out is
not supported by the climatological and oceanographic science.
>
> As to the plant needing to be hardened on the inside to withstand greater
shaking, neither of us knows if that is true or not but I'm sure that is
going to have to be looked at again and in no small measure due to the
grandstanding of our two dauntless senators.
>
> Kimmer
>
>
> On Thu, Mar 17, 2011 at 9:45 AM, Patricia J Akers <delachenaie1@yahoo.com>
wrote:
>
> In the event in Japan the tsunami is the primary cause of the reactors
failures that are being seen. It is noted in the following story that
Diablo is cited at being 85 ft above sea level. This will change as climate
change is creating higher sea levels.
>
>
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/west-coast-nuke-plants-are-they-safe-2011-0
3-14
>
> The Japanese plants were hit by waves at 23 feet. The earthquake(s) were
not responsible for the damage that has led to the current scenario.
>
> Part of the problem in both cases is governments relying upon
seismologists and geologists under contract with the respective utility
companies to provide factual information. The research provided under these
private contracts is commonly woven into official maps and public releases
about the plants. It must be assumed because of the contractual demands of
the utilities that this information is commonly weighted in the utility's
favor.
>
> Hosgri has been known to generate earthquakes at 7.3, and Diablo is built
to withstand a 7.5. We have the environmental groups to thank for at least
this level of protection. PG&E's consultants maintained that this level of
protection was unnecessary. Originally it was to be built with a safety
factor at 6.8 because most construction in California is required to
withstand a 6.8. Personally Diablo should be upgraded to increase its
safety ratio. Two tenths on the scale appears to be far too low of a safety
range.
>
> Reasonableness sometimes falls on the upper portion of statistical
analysis when millions of people are at risk. Japan is a very poignant
example as this event unfolds. It was argued that greater protection was
just too expensive, and unwarranted...sound familiar?
>
> And to the authors of the press release from PG&E that generated the above
story and the one cited by Lin, 7.3 is not a large earthquake?
>
> I see a spider spinning a web. We do not need a nominative subjective
assessment of danger.
>
> Patricia
>
>
>
> From: Lin Kerns <linkerns@gmail.com>
> To: Geology2 <geology2@yahoogroups.com>; California Earthquake Forum
<californiasearthquakeforum@yahoogroups.com>; CaliforniaDisasters
<californiadisasters@yahoogroups.com>
> Sent: Thu, March 17, 2011 8:11:03 AM
> Subject: [californiadisasters] California's faults are not like Japan's
>
>
> California's faults are not like Japan's
>
> Geology offshore of and in California would make such a massive temblor
unlikely, seismologists say
>
>
> By David Sneed | dsneed@thetribunenews.com
> When the Japanese earthquake occurred last week, an area the size of
Maryland ruptured on the fault.
>
> To duplicate that kind of a quake in California would require a rupture
along a very long length of a fault — and that geology does not exist in the
faults closest to Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant, says Tom Brocher,
director of the U.S. Geological Survey's Earthquake Science Center in Menlo
Park.
>
> Similarly, seismologists are not aware of any faults farther offshore that
could produce a large quake or tsunami. "There are some offshore structures,
but they are not the plate-boundary features that you see off of Japan or
the Pacific Northwest," Brocher said Wednesday.
>
> Seismologists are unsure whether a newly discovered fault near Diablo
Canyon and a larger fault offshore are connected and could produce a
potentially large earthquake if they went off in tandem.
>
> The Japanese fault is shaped like a ramp that dips beneath the country at
a shallow angle, with a large area of contact between two tectonic plates.
In contrast, California's faults are thin ribbons that extend vertically
into the ground, creating a fault zone about 10 miles deep.
>
> "We just don't think there is any way we can get a magnitude-9 quake in
this part of the state," Brocher said. "The faults are just not long
enough."
>
> The closest subduction fault is the Cascadia that runs down the coast of
the Pacific Northwest into Northern California.
>
> The longest fault in the state is the San Andreas, which runs about 580
miles, including through the northeast part of San Luis Obispo County.
>
> In order for the San Andreas to generate a massive earthquake, it would
have to rupture along most of its length. This is considered unlikely
because a section in the middle around Parkfield regularly has many small
earthquakes, and that relieves some of the pressure.
>
> By comparison, the Hosgri Fault offshore of Diablo Canyon nuclear power
plant is about 120 miles long. The newly discovered Shoreline Fault near the
plant is 15 miles long.
>
> "The Hosgri Fault is just not long enough to give you one of the
mega-quakes," Brocher said. Similarly, earthquakes along faults such as
those in California do not displace the huge amounts of ocean water needed
to create a powerful tsunami.
>
> "The Hosgri is a very vertical fault," Brocher said.
>
> Seismologists have learned a lot about the faults around Diablo Canyon
since the 1980s, when Diablo Canyon was built, Brocher said.
>
> They were initially unsure of the Hosgri Fault's exact characteristics
because it was newly discovered, he said.
>
> Original estimates of the Hosgri showed a quake potential of 7.0 to 7.5
magnitude.
>
> At a recent meeting of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission in San Luis
Obispo, PG&E seismologists announced that they are reducing the quake
potential to the 6 to 6.5 magnitude.
>
> NRC officials at the meeting said they are studying the PG&E re-analysis
and hope to announce whether they can verify it by the end of the year.
>
> Brocher said his agency has not been asked to review the PG&E report
submitted to the NRC. However, the USGS does update its seismic mapping on a
regular basis and includes new information that has been scientifically
vetted, he said.
>
> Source
>
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