Predicting and Managing Extreme Weather Events
This is a challenging time for the US and for US science. The economy, though it is beginning to show some positive signs, is still in bad shape. Extraordinary numbers of Americans
are without jobs. The public holds a record-low opinion of government. The integrity of the scientific process is being questioned, and pressure to reduce federal spending is fierce.
The irony is that the demand for services provided by agencies such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is at an all-time high and growing. Our ability to deliver those services
depends in part on our scientific enterprise. One significant
reason why demand for services is growing is the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Last year, new records were set in the US for tornadoes, drought, wind, floods, and wildfires. Heat records were set in every state. At one time last summer, nearly half of the country's population was under a heat advisory or heat warning. In late November, hurricane-force winds hit parts of Wyoming, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and California, with winds reaching 97 mph in Pasadena.1
We at NOAA wereable to predict most of the weather- and climate-related extreme events, but our capacity to continue to do so is seriously threatened by downward pressure on our budgets. Budgets
and politics threaten NOAA's ability to observe and model weather and climate events and to deliver information to the public. NOAA's abilities to fund and conduct research aimed at understanding
the causes of extreme weather and to improve the effectiveness of response to our warnings are all at great risk.
This article focuses on the unusual weather and climate patterns we've documented in 2011 and in previous decades and identifies several actions that would help us to better predict and manage them.
Succeeding in this tough environment will take innovative new approaches, a collaborative effort from the scientific community, and a broader appreciation for what is at risk.
Going to extremes
The number of events that produced on the order of $1 billion or more in damages in 2011 is the largest since tracking of that statistic began in 1980, even after damages are adjusted for inflation. NOAA estimates that there were at least 14 such events in 2011. (The previous record was nine, set in 2008; an average year would see three or four.) Collectively, the 14 events resulted in approximately $55 billion in damage.2 Furthermore, many events produced less than $1 billion in damage, but are not included in the tally, although they collectively represent additional significant financial losses. Why did we see such expensive damage last year? There are likely a
number of contributing factors, including upward trends in population and infrastructure, migration to vulnerable areas, and climate change. The contribution of each of these factors remains an important
research issue.
Of course, the economic losses are far from the full picture. Weather- and climate-related disasters in the US claimed more than 1000 lives in 2011, almost double the yearly average. For the victims,
each of the events was a huge tragedy. For our country, as for all countries, the events are an unprecedented challenge to the safety of our citizens, the bottom line for our businesses, and the smooth functioning of our society. Timely, accurate, and reliable weather warnings and forecasts are essential to our nation's ability to plan for, respond to, recover from, and prosper in the aftermath of disaster. Short-term forecasts are critical, but so are forecasts of slowly evolving events like prolonged droughts, snow and ice-melt flooding, and heat waves. We've emphasized how unusual 2011 was, but was it an anomaly or part of a broader change? Should we expect more of the same in the future? Globally, according to the insurance company Munich Re, the number of extreme meteorological and hydrological events, defined in terms of economic and human impacts, has more than doubled over the past 20 years.3
View the complete article online: http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/PT.3.1475
Debby Miles
KN6YAP
LACDCS
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