...DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION... SYNOPSIS... THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS EXPANDED THE EXTREME DROUGHT /D3/ INTO THE MEDFORD HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AND EXPANDED THE SEVERE DROUGHT /D2/...THE MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/...AND ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS /D0/. THE AREAS OF EXTREME DROUGHT /D3/ ARE EXTREME EASTERN MODOC COUNTY IN CALIFORNIA AND A SMALL AREA IN SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY IN OREGON. THE AREAS LISTED AS SEVERE DROUGHT /D2/ ARE SOUTHERN LAKE AND EXTREME SOUTH EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTIES IN OREGON AND ALL OF MODOC COUNTY IN CALIFORNIA EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION. THE AREAS LISTED AS MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ ARE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LAKE AND SOUTH EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTIES IN OREGON AND EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY IN CALIFORNIA. THE AREAS LISTED AS ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS /D0/ ARE SOUTH EASTERN JACKSON...SOUTH WEST TO NORTH EASTERN KLAMATH AND NORTH WESTERN LAKE COUNTIES IN OREGON AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY IN CALIFORNIA. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT HAS MADE A LIST OF COUNTIES WHICH ARE DESIGNATED FOR 2012 CROP DISASTER LOSSES. THE LIST IS SEPARATED INTO PRIMARY AND CONTIGUOUS COUNTIES. MODOC AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES IN CALIFORNIA AND KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES IN OREGON ARE LISTED AS PRIMARY COUNTIES WHILE JACKSON...JOSEPHINE AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES ARE LISTED AS CONTIGUOUS COUNTIES ON THE LIST. IN MODOC COUNTY IN CALIFORNIA THERE IS A SHORTAGE OF STOCKWATER SUPPLIES AND DIMINISHED PRODUCTION ON RANGELANDS. WILDFIRES HAVE SPREAD MORE READILY DUE TO THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS. THIS HAS LED TO LOST FORAGE LAND OVER THE LAST TWO TO THREE YEARS AND A LOSS OF APPROXIMATELY 100 HEAD OF CATTLE. CLIMATE SUMMARY... ACCORDING TO THE NRCS...AS OF AUGUST 30...FOR YEAR TO DATE PRECIPITATION THE ROGUE AND UMPQUA BASINS ARE AT 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL...THE KLAMATH BASIN IS AT 94 PERCENT OF NORMAL...LAKE COUNTY IS AT 81 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND MODOC COUNTY IS AT 69 PERCENT OF NORMAL. AREAS WEST OF THE CREST OF THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS WERE ALREADY CARRYING A DEFICIT AT THE END OF THE RAINY SEASON. WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SUMMER THE AREA HAS DRIED OUT SIGNIFICANTLY. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... THE ONE MONTH OUTLOOK LISTS THAT MODOC COUNTY IN CALIFORNIA AND KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES IN OREGON ARE EXPECTING EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL...NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE REST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL. EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL...NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXIST OVER ALL BUT NORTHERN LAKE...NORTHERN KLAMATH...NORTHWEST JACKSON...AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES WHERE THERE IS AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... THE OUTLOOK IS FOR A MODERATE EL NINO PATTERN TO DEVELOP OVER THE COMING MONTHS. EL NINO DOES NOT BRING A LOT OF INCREASED SEASONAL PREDICTABILITY TO THE IMPACTED AREA WHEN THE SIGNAL IS MODERATE OR LESSER. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME TENDENCY FOR SNOW LEVELS TO BE HIGHER AND SNOWPACK TO BE LESSER THAN NORMAL IN OREGON DURING MOST EL NINOS. IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THERE IS LESS LIKELIHOOD FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING MOST EL NINOS. WE ARE CURRENTLY IN THE DRY SEASON WHERE VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION FALLS. THE POTENTIAL FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS PARTICULARLY WORRISOME. RESERVOIRS ARE GENERALLY HOLDING AT ROUGHLY 50 PERCENT FULL WITH ONE OR TWO STILL ABOUT 70 PERCENT FULL. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THE NEXT PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED IF AND WHEN THE AREA CLASSIFIED AS EXTREME DROUGHT /D3/ CHANGES OR IF THE DROUGHT IMPACTS WORSEN SIGNIFICANTLY. && RELATED WEB SITES... NWS WFO MEDFORD...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU U.S. FARM SERVICE AGENCY...HTTP://WWW.FSA.USDA.GOV CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...HTTP://CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE...HTTP://NRCS.USDA.GOV ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER DROUGHT MONITOR U.S. BUREAU OF RECLAMATION NORTHWEST RIVER FORECAST CENTER CALIFORNIA NEVADA RIVER FORECAST CENTER NATURAL RESOURCE CONSERVATION SERVICE 4H PROGRAM REPRESENTATIVE MODOC COUNTY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... PLEASE REFER ALL QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS TO... WFO MEDFORD, OR 4003 CIRRUS DRIVE MEDFORD, OR 97504 PHONE: 541-773-1067 W-MFR.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV $$ BTL/SKH/NSK WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD--
Source: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?prod=XXXDGTMFR&wfo=MFR
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