California on track to complete early earthquake warning system by 2016, state senator says

October 20, 2014 | By Dibya Sarkar

Emergency officials in California say that an early warning system, which could give anywhere from 10 seconds to a minute's notice before an earthquake hits, is expected to be completed in 15 months, according to a state senator who held a hearing on the issue last week.

Sen. Alex Padilla said state emergency management officials told him that the system is on track to be delivered by January 2016, Emergency Management reported in an Oct. 17 article. The Associated Press reported in an Oct. 15 story that Padilla held a hearing where a panel of state officials said an early warning system would save lives and minimize damage.

Although Padilla sponsored a bill last year – subsequently signed into law by Gov. Jerry Brown – that mandated development of the estimated $80 million system, state and federal officials had already begun construction of the system before the bill was signed into law.

The ShakeAlert system is a demonstration early warning system that began sending alerts to California test users in January 2012, according to a recent U.S. Geological Survey publication (pdf).

The system detects earthquakes using 400 existing high-quality ground motion sensors, which are part of the California Integrated Seismic Network. Federal and state partners built this network, which is one of seven regional networks that make up a national seismic system.

The California system detects seismic waves, determines the maximum expected shaking and then sends alerts to electronic systems and devices before the quake arrives, USGS said.

"Early warning is possible because information can be sent through communication systems virtually instantaneously, whereas seismic waves travel through the shallow Earth at speeds ranging from one to a few kilometers per second (0.5–3 miles/sec)," according to the USGS publication. "This means that the shaking can take some seconds or even minutes to travel from where the earthquake occurred to where you are."

The ShakeAlert system did provide users with about five to six seconds notice before the La Habra earthquake March 28 and the South Napa earthquake Aug. 24, but USGS said the system still needs further development and testing to make it "sufficiently reliable."

In a Sept. 2 press release, Padilla said the technology is proven.

"Japan, Mexico and China all have systems that work," he said. "More than 50 million Japanese received early warnings via an app on their cell phones prior to the massive 9.0 Tohoku, Japan, quake in 2011. Millions more downloaded the app after the quake so they could receive early warnings prior to strong aftershocks."

More than 75 million Americans across 39 states live in areas at risk for earthquakes – with the highest risk on the West Coast, according to USGS.

"In the next 30 years, California has a 99.7 percent chance of a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake and the Pacific Northwest has a 10 percent chance of a magnitude 8 to 9 megathrust earthquake on the Cascadia subduction zone," according to ShakeAlert.org.

Last week, California officials held exercises across several communities so they can become better prepared for future earthquakes.

For more:
- read the Emergency Management article about the California system
- read The AP story on Padilla's hearing
- read Alex Padilla's press release about an early-warning system
- download the U.S. Geological Survey publication on ShakeAlert (pdf)

http://www.fiercehomelandsecurity.com/story/california-track-complete-early-earthquake-warning-system-2016-state-senato/2014-10-20