SACRAMENTO FIRE WEATHER ANNUAL SUMMARY - 2010
A cool, wet spring set the stage for a quiet northern California fire season in 2010. Storms moved through the region almost weekly in April and May. Average temperatures throughout the region were 3.4 degrees below normal in April and 4.0 degrees below normal in May. Some locations in the mountains and foothills received 5 to 6 inches more precipitation than normal in May. 1000-hr fuels stayed wet into the summer. Below 1000 feet, grasses cured two to three weeks behind schedule (early May). The May rains caused a second crop of grasses to poke up below 2000 feet as Chemise and Manzanita fuel moistures ran well above normal. Fuel moistures experienced big spikes in May, then remained above average through early August.
Northern California had a beautiful summer. Low pressure generally remained anchored over the Pacific Northwest. Below normal sea surface temperatures persisted off the central California coast. As low pressure systems shifted inland, they brought cooler ocean air with them. July and August temperatures were two to three degrees below normal in the central valleys. There were only 14 days that exceeded 100 degrees in Sacramento last summer (the normal is 22). Gusty southwest winds frequently occurred in the mountains and through the Delta. Their impact was mitigated by moist fuels and cool temperatures. A persistent southwest flow aloft kept monsoonal moisture and instability shunted away from northern California. A front did spark some lightning fires in late June. Most of these were not in our area; remaining confined to Modoc and Lassen counties.
An offshore low pressure system produced a round of thunderstorms with about 500 lightning strikes across northern California August 14 – 15. Again, most of the lightning was north and east of our area and no Red Flag products were necessary. Gusty southwest winds prompted the issuance of Red Flag Warnings for the Burney Basin (zone 214) on August 17th, 20th and 25th. The Lassen Park area (zone 268) was included in the warning on the 25th. Fuel moistures finally fell to near normal levels in August but a period of wet weather brought them back up in September. There were some gusty north winds in early October that prompted the issuance of Red Flag Warnings. By the end of the October, a series of upper level disturbances brought cool temperatures and widespread showers to the region.
35,674 acres burned in northern California in 2010. This was the lowest amount since 1998 and is only 24% of the 15-year average of 151,065 acres. This average does not factor in the extreme 2008 fire season data. In the last 17 years, only 1998 (33,182 acres burned), 1995 (20,605 acres) and 1997 (19,401 acres) had less wildfire activity than 2010.
The Bar Fire began on 8/1. The cause is still under investigation. The fire was in the Plumas NF in the Feather River Canyon north of Highway 70. It forced the closure of highway 70 and threatened several structures as it grew to over 1,000 acres. Full containment was achieved on 8/11.
The Caribou Complex was a complex of four separate fires that began on 8/14 in the Plumas NF. The cause of these remains under investigation. The fires forced the closure of portions of highway 70 as they collectively grew to over 400 acres. Full containment was achieved on 8/16.
The Baseline Fire started on 8/20 in Placer County near the city of Roseville. It spread rapidly in grass, burning over 400 acres; prompting evacuations and threatening structures. The fire was contained later that day. The cause remains under investigation.
The Pinecrest Fire was started by lightning in the Stanislaus National Forest in late August. The fire initially grew to 288 acres, but rocky terrain and higher than normal fuel moisture limited its growth. The fire grew to 811 acres by September 7th. It posed no threat to the public and was allowed to burn itself out in a remote area. STO continued to receive spot forecast requests from this fire into late September.
The Indian Fire was a man made fire at the north end of the Indian Valley Reservoir in Lake County. The fire started on 8/24 and grew to 363 acres. It was suppressed two days later.
The Ballard Fire in Yuba County was a man made fire ignited in Yuba County on 8/27. A type II team was dispatched to this fire, which burned in steep and rocky terrain in the north Yuba drainage within the Tahoe NF. The fire was fully contained by 8/31. It grew to 1300 acres at its peak.
The Wetsel Fire was a small man made fire that was ignited in Placer County 9/2. It remained smaller than 200 acres and was extinguished by the Amador/El Dorado unit the following day.
The Black Fire was another man made fire that began 9/24 in the El Dorado NF. It was quickly extinguished by Grass Valley CAL-FIRE before it could exceed 200 acres.
In general, above average fuel moistures kept fires that did manage to start from growing too fast. The quiet season across much of the country also allowed resources to be kept close to home; making for a fast response time in 2010.
<SNIP>
Red Flag Warning verification can be subjective, especially with regard to dry lightning. To verify as a correct warning for winds and RH, we refer to the matrix agreed upon by the California Wildfire Coordinating Group (CWCG):
STO verified all but one of the Red Flag Warnings issued in 2010. There was one missed event for gusty winds in the Burney Basin. This resulted in a POD of 0.92, which is similar to 2009 (0.95) and 2008 (0.98). STO continues to do a good job with low RH /
gusty wind Red Flag Warnings. The October Red Flag Warnings were issued with no preceding Fire Weather Watch and only 4.6 hours of lead time. Lead time was better in August (20.5 hours). The June warnings had 6.1 hours of lead time. Overall lead time averaged 10.5 hours. This is down from the previous three years (20.4, 21.6 and 21.5 hours for 2009, 2008 and 2007 respectively). The reduced lead time was probably due to the limited number of events.
STO issued no Red Flag Warnings for dry lightning in 2010. There were no missed lightning events.
Statistically, POD is the ratio of warned events to total events. So if
A= the # of correct warnings
B= the number of incorrect warnings
C= the number of events not warned
Then POD = A / (A+C)
FAR is the ratio of warnings without an event to total warnings: B / (A+B)
CSI = A / (A+B+C)
<SNIP>
The CSI of .857 for Red Flag Warnings was much improved from 2009 (.614). With no Red Flag issues for dry lightning to worry about, STO had a remarkable FAR of .008.
STO issued seven zone based Fire Weather Watches in 2010; down from 40 in 2009 and 117 in 2008. Six of the seven watches verified with an average lead time of 26.7 hours. This is down from 31.5 hours in 2009.
SPOT FORECASTS ISSUED FOR THE YEAR 2010
WFO Sacramento issued 409 spot forecasts last season; our third highest total ever and similar to the 435 issued in 2009. 2008 remains number one overall with 517 spot forecasts. We saw an increase in the number of wildfire spots (110 vs. 82) in 2010. This was largely due to the Pinecrest Fire in the Stanislaus National Forest, which was allowed to burn from early August into September. The number of prescribed burn spot forecast requests dropped to 266 from 304 the previous year. October (68) and November (47) continue to be the busiest months for prescribed burning spot forecasts. However, June (44) made a close run for the second busiest month this year.
While October and November of 2010 were fairly steady with prescribed burning spot forecast requests; their numbers were well down from the previous year. October of 2009 had 85 spot requests vs. 68 this year; and November's 44 RX spots were down from 80 a year ago.
<SNIP>
There was an increase in prescribed burning spot requests from local municipalities in 2010, as well as from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife. Again, note the higher number of wildfire spot requests headed by the Stanislaus National Forest. It looks like the forests and CAL-FIRE did less burning in 2010 than in 2009. Removing the extreme fire season numbers of 2008, we had seen a steady increase in spot forecast requests from 2007 (364), 2006 (324), 2005 (269) and 2004 (234).
<SNIP>
WFO Sacramento had an average spot forecast completion time of 37.4 minutes in 2010 (wildfire spots). This was a little slower than 2009 (31.7 minutes), but better than 2008's completion time average (46.5 minutes).
INCIDENT METEOROLOGIST DISPATCHES FOR 2010
Sacramento fire weather participated in 2 IMET dispatches in 2010. Many IMETs saw no activity this year because it was such a quiet fire season across the country. IMET trainee Steve Goldstein was dispatched to the Tecolote Fire northwest of Las Vegas, N.M. on June 18th; then transferred to the Schultz Fire near Flagstaff, AZ on June 22nd. STO provided 15 days of IMET support in 2010, down from 36 days in 2009 and 47 days in 2008.
Steve Goldstein became a certified IMET on the Schultz Fire in July, giving WFO STO three certified IMETS. The breakdown of WFO STO IMET dispatches including incident name, dates dispatched and fire weather district of the incident is as follows:
<SNIP>
FIRE WEATHER TRAINING ASSIGNMENTS IN 2010
Sacramento fire weather participated in 14 teaching assignments in 2010, down from 23 in 2009 and similar to the 13 that occurred in 2008. Jason Clapp was a huge help this year, teaching four "Basic Fire Behavior" S-290 courses. Mike Smith also taught two S-390 courses, two S-490 courses and an S-590 Advanced Fire Behavior course. WFO Sacramento continues to be a big help to state and local agencies that must comply with the S-290 wildland fire fighting course.
Special thanks go to Mike Smith, who continues to shoulder a large teaching workload each year.
The courses taught, locations, agency served and instructors follow:
Course Name Location Date Agency Served Instructor
Wldnd Fire Calc S-390 Magalia 1/19-1/20 CALFIRE Mike Smith
Basic Fire Behavior S-290 Grass Vly 2/08-2/09 CALFIRE Jason Clapp
Adv Wldnd Fire Calc S-490 McClellan 2/23-2/24 USFS Mike Smith
Basic Fire Behavior S-290 Consumnes 3/01-3/02 Various Mike Smith
Fire Dept.
Basic Fire Behavior S-290 McClellan 3/02-3/03 USFS Jason Clapp
Adv Fire Behavior S-590 Tucson 3/08-3/19 Various Mike Smith
Basic Fire Behavior S-290 Cameron Pk 3/30-3/31 CALFIRE Jason Clapp
Basic Fire Behavior S-290 Auburn 4/05-4/06 CALFIRE Jason Clapp
Wldnd Fire Calc S-390 Cameron Pk 4/06-4/07 CALFIRE Mike Smith
Adv Wldnd Fire Calc S-490 Ione 4/13-4/14 CALFIRE Mike Smith
Basic Fire Behavior S-290 Vacaville 5/24-5/25 USFS Mike Smith
Basic Fire Wx Refresher Polock Pines 5/26 USFS Mike Smith
Basic Fire Behavior S-290 Paradise 6/07-6/08 USFS Mike Smith
Basic Fire Behavior S-290 Sonora 6/15-6/16 CALFIRE Mike Smith
Source: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sto/2010FireWxVerificationReport.pdf
--
Check out http://groups.yahoo.com/group/californiadisasters/
Read our blog at http://eclecticarcania.blogspot.com/
Visit me on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/derkimster
__._,_.___
No comments:
Post a Comment