that Christmas is coming.
But on the other hand, if it's such a Duh, why are so few people prepared,
and why do the various governments and building owners do so little (and
worry so much about costs*)?
------------
* Costs:
1. Allegedly, it was the fear of spending money on a copter or two early in
the Station fire that cost millions of dollars and two lives.
2. According to one report, a batch of particularly devastating wildland
fires in Orange Co., CA, happened exactly where they'd been predicted by the
forestry expert(s) who pleaded for thinning/clean-up but whose pleas fell on
deaf ears because of the cost of the clean-up.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Louis N. Molino, Sr." <lnmolino@aol.com>
To: <californiadisasters@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Tuesday, March 15, 2011 1:21 AM
Subject: Re: [californiadisasters] Special Report: Big CA EQ Likely to
Devastate State
That's news? Duh my 5 YO granddaughter and he < 1 YO Brother could predict
that headline.
Louis N. Molino, Sr. CET
FF/NREMT/FSI/EMSI
Training Program Manager
Fire & Safety Specialists, Inc.
Typed by my fingers on my iPhone.
Please excuse any typos.
(979) 412-0890 (Cell)
(979) 690-7559 (Office)
(979) 690-7562 (Office Fax)
LNMolino@aol.com
Lou@fireworld.com
On Mar 15, 2011, at 0:27, Kim Noyes <kimnoyes@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
> Special report: Big California quake likely to devastate state
>
> By Peter Henderson – Mon Mar 14, 9:47 pm ET
> SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) – California will experience unthinkable damage
when the next powerful quake strikes, probably within 30 years, even though
the state prides itself on being on the leading edge of earthquake science.
>
> Modern skyscrapers built to the state's now-rigorous building codes might
ride out the big jolt that experts say is all but inevitable, but the
surviving buildings will tower over a carpet of rubble from older structures
that have collapsed.
>
> Hot desert winds could fan fires that quakes inevitably cause,
overwhelming fire departments, even as ancient water pipelines burst,
engineers and architects say.
>
> Part of the lesson from the disaster that hit Japan on Friday is that no
amount of preparation can fully protect a region such as California that
sits on top of fault lines.
>
> Even so, critics fear the state may have long skimped on retrofitting
older buildings. Yet the cost of cleaning up after a big quake is likely to
be much higher than the cost of even the most expensive prevention, they
warn.
>
> "Everybody is playing a gamble that something like this won't happen,"
said Dana Buntrock, associate professor of architecture, at the University
of California, Berkeley.
>
> Buntrock, like many others, sees California's past as a present danger.
The university is spending more than $300 million to retrofit and renovate
its ancient sports stadium, tucked into the hills overlooking the bay.
>
> "There are places where two walls that were aligned in the 1920s have
moved a half meter apart," she said.
>
> But the steps that the school is taking are not as common in California as
the overwhelming risks might suggest.
>
> The concrete high-rises that rose in the years after the 1906 San
Francisco earthquake were made without adequate reinforcing steel, while
homes and apartment complexes that are built atop of ground-floor parking
lots are among the most vulnerable structures in the state.
>
> Japan's 8.9 earthquake and the tsunami it unleashed destroyed entire
villages and left 10,000 or more dead. That sends shivers up the spines of
the engineers and architects who follow California's strategy to withstand a
big quake that experts say will surely hit the state one day.
>
> "The question is not if but when Southern California will be hit by a
major earthquake -- one so damaging that it will permanently change lives
and livelihoods in the region," according to a 2008 study by the United
States Geological Survey study.
>
> It predicted 2,000 deaths and $200 billion in damage from a 7.8 southern
California quake on the San Andreas Fault.
>
> Geologists say a big earthquake in California would probably top out at a
magnitude 8 as the state's fault structures are different from Japan's.
>
> A quake of the 7.8 magnitude in the USGS study would have about 30 times
less power than the one that struck Japan.
>
> Forecasters in 2008 saw a 99 percent chance of a 6.7 magnitude quake
within three decades, and 46 percent chance of a 7.5 or greater, with
Southern California the likely center.
>
> A monster California quake of magnitude 8 had only about a 4 percent
probability -- except in far Northern California and the Pacific Northwest.
That area has a 10 percent chance of experiencing a magnitude 8 to 9
quake -- Japan-sized -- in the next 30 years.
>
> A repeat of San Francisco's 7.9 magnitude quake in 1906 could take up to
about 900 lives, injure thousands and destroy 3,000 residential buildings, a
recent report for the city found.
>
> Even a smaller 7.2 quake would cause $30 billion in building damage, $10
billion more in additional costs -- and if fires sweep the city, damage
could rise by $4 billion, the report sponsored by the San Francisco
Department of Building Inspection concluded. About 27,000 of the city's
160,000 buildings would become unsafe to occupy.
>
> One of the authors of the report, geotechnical engineer Thomas Tobin,
reflected that the hot winds of Santa Ana winds blowing from the desert
into Los Angeles could intensify a disaster created by a southern California
quake.
>
> "If it happens to be a large earthquake on a hot, dry day with the wind
blowing, the losses could be huge," he said.
>
> <SNIP>
>
> View entire article here: http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/us_quake_california
>
> --
> Check out http://groups.yahoo.com/group/californiadisasters/
> Read our blog at http://eclecticarcania.blogspot.com/
> Visit me on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/derkimster
>
>
>
>
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