Sunday, August 18, 2013

Re: [Geology2] Re: your opinions



I homeschooled mine. There are issues with science but we got around that by joining with a few  other families for physics and biology lab. The homeschool groups are very good about providing ways for kids to get just as good an experience in science if not better than what they would get in school. I joined the Milwaukee Geological society and took my daughter to the meetings. She really enjoyed the field trips we took with that group and my yard is covered with rocks we picked up, many of them with fossils. 
 You are not kidding about the roadblocks in education. So many parents just want a babysitter and are not willing to put the work into acquiring better quality schools. Allison


From: fossrme <fossrme@yahoo.com>
To: geology2@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Sunday, August 18, 2013 1:43 PM
Subject: [Geology2] Re: your opinions

 
Have you noticed how bad the spelling and grammar is on the internet? Not that I'm any great shakes in that area but some of the errors in the articles and blurbs just jump right out. I think a lot of it is because of texting and not reading real literature in school. Even the newspapers have a problem with it now. I've had problems with the schools for a long time - my kids were bored with it, when it seems like it should be something interesting and exciting. Maybe I'm just naïve, but if I were starting everything over I would go into education as a career and try to come up with a better system. But there are some big roadblocks in that.

--- In geology2@yahoogroups.com, Allison Maricelli-Loukanis <allison.ann@...> wrote:
>
> Well. Yeah. Most of the public is not even aware of the standards to which scholars ought to be held. I remember in chemistry we were graded on how we wrote our findings down after a  lab activity. Our teacher was very particular. It was many years ago and I doubt that I could properly write out an experiment now. But the education of a scientist starts in high school. And many schools are really lax. With this new Common Core idiocy, you can bet America will start to lag seriously behind. All of you with kids in school should be seriously alarmed by the Common Core curriculum being launched in many states. My last one is a senior in high school but I really fear for the youth of this country. Allison
>
>
> ________________________________
> From: MEM <mstreman53@...>
> To: "geology2@yahoogroups.com" <geology2@yahoogroups.com>
> Sent: Saturday, August 17, 2013 11:18 PM
> Subject: Re: [Geology2] Re: your opinions
>
>
>
>  
> Let me firstly say that my comments on what it would take to become a climate expert was simply commentary on the scope of personal effort given the magnitude of articles to research. I didn't perceive anything anyone has said to be a challenge. The major theme of my reply was that I felt the focus was off kilter if CO2 was the sole focus. 
>
> Climatology is a moving train to keep abreast of valid science-based research that presents findings without bias.  I don't know if you are aware of the scandals throughout the scientific community as a whole regarding: falsified data, peer review which did no fact checking but simply read the abstract,  excluding alternate POV reviewers in order expedite getting published.  Without going into detail, I was trying to express that the debate is full of scandal and cheating so research can't be taken at face value-nor can the thousands of bloggs out there pro or con-- nor the media reports which attribute every unusual weather event as "global warming"--WRONG  it is weather --not climate. I just saw an article by a "science writer" that said that 2012 broke several "climate" records when what she meant was "weather" records.  This is lost on most of the public
>
>
>
> >________________________________
> > From: fossrme <fossrme@...>
> >
> >  <<<SNIP>>>
> >
> >
> >> One caution to your volcano contribution disclaimer.  Modern times have not seen the volcanism of the Southwest US and Middle East  20Kybp, Nor the Deccan and Siberian Traps.  That could quickly change the whole game.
> >C: It certainly would. We would be toast. From what I have read, that takes a while to get to full swing - thousands of years, so is not an immediate concern and as far as I know there are not any signs of it beginning now.
> >
> >R: Actually-- within the past 5-6 years a rift vent opened in Ethiopia overnight as in less than 24 hours-- which was several dozen miles long(80?) and a portion of it immediately filled with magma/lava( 12miles±?).  Nothing about this rift is different at the surface from the Triassic rift(190-200mybp) which extruded 1000± feet of basalt up an down the Hudson River Valley outside NYC( 300ft remain today above surface). We really don't know just how much basalt was extruded because most of it eroded into the gap between the North Americana nd Africa plates. It is my opinion that the major extrusive event has more likely than not already started. This riftting started before humans walked the planet!
> >
> >
> >Only in the past 10 years have we started inventorying underwater volcanoes and black smokers.
> >
> >C: I don't have any data on emissions. I was referring to the information in the citation from Skeptical Science and something contained in the Plimer interview saying that it came from a recent USGS study, and that it included undersea emissions.R: Fair enough-- it is a moving train and I no longer keep up with the details like I used to--however we are finding more smoker fields weekly.
> >
> >>
> >> I do stand corrected regarding my assessment that it "seems about right" Â and may I suggest that you'll wade through the several 10s of millions of articles on the net and decide which ones you believe or do not believe. Â
> >C: Ididn't challenge your statement. There is nothing wrong with saying "it seems about right", I do it all the time. If we can't make off the cuff WAGs during conversation what a bore it would be. But if I were writing an article making as controversial and argumentative a statement as Plimer did I would realize, as any reputable scientist does, that it should depend on facts that are presented at the time.
> >R: Agreed
> ><<<SNIP>>>
> >Not that I would place any confidence in anyone's climate model, as so far there have been what 78(?) attempted Climate Prediction models and NONE of them has proved accurate when past climatological data was run back through them to check for validation.  Some one pointed out that climate is not uniform and extreme highs and extreme lows of whatever is being measured make the scene look "average".  Super computers coming on line each day will help isolate regional climates forcing on adjacent and ultimately world climate.  Part of that will be identifying the true heat budget of the globe and how it moves about the environment.C:Good info. I'm wondering what you mean when you say none of the climate models has proved accurate. Accuracy is a matter of degree.
> >
> >R: Ha Ha  Punny...degrees--get it?  Accuracy is more than "degrees" but well defined statistical measures on whether to accept or reject a model.  What I mean is that no model so far has captured reality with enough "fit" to be endorsed as suitable for forecasting the future.  Keep in mind that a 5% generic error this decade can become a 10% error -- just arithmetically but curves usually follow algebraically.  No model captures the majority of the 60-70 plus known climate forcing cycles ( solar output, precession, wind and current migration etc.) And more are being discovered monthly.  I am skeptical that any chart you've seen on model suitability isn't skullduggery.  If you know the history of the first IPCC model used to predict Al Gore's figures was tweaked until it got the numbers the IPCC staffers wanted.  The whole model was fiction used to back up a predetermined outcome.  That is NOT a valid predictive model.
> >
> >C: I've seen a graph comparing several model predictions with observed temperatures where they matched pretty well. Can you give us a rundown on that?
> >
> >R:  The last summation I recall (which was recent) was that none of the climate models fell within the confidence interval any better than chance.  None of them predicted the cooling trend of the past 2 decades.  See my original comment below.
> >
> >> Water and methane have been more or less in balance because we are not adding them directly to the atmosphere in significant quantities, so they aren't causing much temperature change. It is the CO2 that is going up and as it increases it forces increases in these other gases which are multiplyers of the CO2 increases. If we stabilize the CO2 we stabilize the temperature.
> >
> >R1:  Humm seems like we are again focusing on CO2 and the point of my previous comments was that that way too simplistic.  Somewhere in the bowels of academia is a study which showed CO2 levels to be several times today's levels yet the global temperature was lower than today.  Again without understanding all the forcers and how they feedback, focus on CO2 alone is misplaced effort and If I may say so--wasted karma.
> >
> >
> >R2: We humans may not be but weather cycles are-- note droughts and variation in snowfall and hurricanes. (I think cattle are a major methane generator. I am not going to fact check cattle population changes) An expressed concern with rising ocean temperatures the methane hydrate deposits--which are held in place largely by pressure are there in a fragile balance and subject to sublimation.
> >
> >
> >I've no inclination to debate the "un-debatable"-- true unbiased research is buried in millions of pages of uninformed/parroted opinions so underpinning comments with "references" is futile more or less but I understand the obligation to do so If I were taking sides. Â I do know from my climate studies that CO2 in the environment doesn't behave simplistically like it does in the lab owing to unaccounted for feed backs/forcers. Â I've said before that we are only now getting the computing power to model the atmosphere GHGs--Of which water vapor and methane are far larger players than CO2. Â Once again is the issue stabilizing CO2 or is it stabilizing global temperatures and therefore climate specifically sea levels? Â Suppose we cut Atmospheric CO2 in half and we find ourselves under ice caps in 30 years or we find all the ice caps have still melted and Kansas is beachfront property--whomever was "right" has a hollow victory.
> >> Human selfish interests and skepticism over bad science have tainted the "effort" and nothing effective will be developed in the next 50 years which will control "CO2 levels". period. Â While plants are "greener" and temperate regions are greening more (pro) ocean acidification is endangering coral reef communities( some of us think)( con). Â I think the biggest threat finding solutions is the "tunnel vision focus"- on CO2 for it stifles finding out how it really behaves in the environment--not simply the atmosphere -or lab or in the computer etc. Â Take a simple survey with all the pro or con AGW proponents by asking them just what is the mechanism of the "green house effect" and 99% of them will give you a wrong answer. Â ( Hint 99% of CO2's heat conversion contribution is within 3 -4 meters of the ground). Â Oceanic CO2 is an almost entirely different player but owing to the exchange of gas to and from the hydrosphere it has to be factored in.
> Â This is one of the reasons one cannot make a one on one calculation of a heat gradient attributable to atmospheric CO2.>C: Why does the fact that heat conversion is within 3-4 meters of the gound mean it is not a problem? That process happens continually during the day and the hot air rises so there is a continual circulation of that heat through the atmosphere.
> >
> >R: I didn't say it was or wasn't. I was illustrating a point.
> >
> >
> >C: What is the correct answer to the question of what it the mechanism for the greenhouse effect?R:  I am sure it can be found on the net and I'll leave it to those who are so inclined to hit the science books.  It would take more time than I have and others have covered the topic in more depth than I could.
> >
> >
> >> My next to final thought is do your own research on research--that after you give up your day job, pay $10's of thousands for journal subscriptions and devote 24/7 to sorting through the noise-- pro or con and then you can speak with bona fide authority.I can't speak with "bona fide" authority, on climate change but I know a little about it and can ask about things that don't make sense to me and point out the problems that I see. I'm trying to learn something. If you are going to take every question I have on what you say to be a challenge to your authority then we are going to have a rough time because I'm not going to stop. I don't have to agree with you - you are only one voice and there are many others with your credentials who have different opinions than yours. That is the nature of science.
> >
> >R:I've not really expressed an opinion on climate change/global cooling/warming per se. I've only cautioned against believing that the science was settled.  This has come to fruition as fraud and game play has been discovered,  Much of the justification used in the original IPCC report has been found faked, fudged or outright wrong. We have in just ten years gone from Global Warming  to Oops Climate Change now to  Ahhh Global Cooling-- We might see and Ice Age return in 30 years. I don't know which if any will lay out in my life time.  I do have a belief--I think that real science following scientific principles has taken a back seat to politics.  I know that the EU has wholesale abandoned the Green Agenda owing to all the scandal and yet again there is major disruption to the energy infrastructure as the EU finds themselves pulling the plug on alternate energy after pulling the plug on fossil fuel and nuclear power plants.  One result is that
> pensioners in England are buying up old books--not to read but to burn in their stoves for warmth.  Al Gore himself said that lying was ok if it got us talking.  He should know as he made $52 Million a year as Chief partner of a now defunct carbon exchange bank in London.  There are costs-even lives at stake for not having true , valid facts to make decisions by.  That is my perspective and I am off the soap box now on why it makes sense to put science back in the lead and let them find out what is really going on.
> >
> > I have tried to share some of the unresolved issues which make taking sides a bit like judging the
> outcome of  movie before intermission.  Ok I will make a prediction--all this climate debate will be overcome by intervening events which no model can anticipate and we will all here be dead by the time the debate plays out.
> >
> >Eman
> >
> >PS:  That said--I am really up to my behind here in real life issues and I can't respond nor can I look through my files for citations on things I have mentioned. If it is important to anyone Google will have to be your research assistant.  Best of Luck  Choose wisely!
> >
>





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