Monday, November 16, 2015

Re: [californiadisasters] El Niño 'is here, and it is huge,' as officials rac...



I fail to see how it is a bust. There's a pretty damned good snowpack in NorCal lately and the storms keep coming through. Today we had some hard rains and even a tornado in a damaging tornado in the San Joaquin Valley. The ENSO event of 1997-1998 which is rather similar to this one did not begin assaulting California until the night of February 2nd into 3rd, 1998. It then proceeded to assault California for the rest of the month and then was done after that, but a lot happened in that month. All through the preceding Fall and especially into January 1998 folks started snarikly talking about "El No-Show" and wondering what happened. Be careful what you wish for! I don't agree that one would think anything would have happened by now. Chaos Theory does not allow us to be that certain and even recent ENSO history undermines the validity of such skepticism.

Then there was the weaker ENSO event in Winter 2005 which dumped tons of rain across the state but it came gradually with few if any memorable disasters.

On Sat, Nov 14, 2015 at 9:17 PM, Fizzboy7@aol.com [californiadisasters] <californiadisasters@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
 

So far this El Nino has been another bust.   We are well into November and not one regular, soaking storm has hit SoCal yet.   They've all been "a chance of showers" or only enough spots to get the car dirty.   I know the bulk of our rain comes December-March, but we usually get something in Oct and Nov.   With the warm waters and all the hype, one would think at least one or two unique storms would have already brewed here.  Oh well.
 
Jason
 
In a message dated 11/14/2015 2:12:16 P.M. Pacific Standard Time, californiadisasters@yahoogroups.com writes:
 

El Niño 'is here, and it is huge,' as officials race to prep for winter



By Rong-Gong Lin II and Rosanna Xia | Los Angeles Times
November 14, 2015, 10:55 a.m.

l Niño continues to gain strength in the Pacific Ocean, climate experts said, with unusually wet conditions expected to hit California between January and March -- and perhaps into May.
 

On Thursday, the United Nations warned that more than 2 million people in Central America will need food aid due to a drought worsened by El Niño, which has caused significant failure in crop harvests. The storms that usually keep the jungles of southern Mexico and Central America wet shift northward to California and the southern United States during strong El Niño winters.

The Climate Prediction Center has forecast above-average precipitation for much of California between January and March.

<SNIP>



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Posted by: Kim Noyes <kimnoyes@gmail.com>


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