[californiadisasters] San Diego might have 'above normal' fire season

San Diego might have 'above normal' fire season

By Gary Robbins, UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER

Originally published August 11, 2010 at 6 a.m., updated August 11, 2010 at 12:42 p.m.

Forecasting is a dicey business. The atmosphere is complex, making it hard to model. So its easy for meteorologists and climatologists to miss the mark. But the predictions are important to consider, particularly when they involve public safety.

And that's what we have today.

State and federal forecasters say that the unusually cool weather San Diego has had since the start of April is finally going to warm up, with temperatures reaching or exceeding normal over the next week or two. And it appears that an emerging La Nina in the equatorial Pacific could make part of September and October warmer and drier than normal, increasing the risk of wildfires.

The good news: The wildfire danger should ease in late fall as a cool pattern returns.

"It seems likely conditions for will be met for a moderate La Niña condition to be declared by late September," says a new advisory by the Predictive Services Group at the South Zone Coordination Center in Riverside.

"The onset and severity of the La Niña will largely determine the fall weather patterns across the state. So far this summer, the lingering affects of the El Niño have

kept much of the state under a cool, onshore flow regime as low pressure remained over the Pacific Northwest.

"This pattern will likely give way to more of an amplified pattern this fall with high pressure developing over the Southwest. This would lead to above normal

temperatures for the September into early October timeframe. It is during that period when large fire potential may be highest for the season. Later this fall, cooler than normal weather may occur November into early December. In the past, some years with a quick transition to La Niña conditions have lead to an above average "monsoon season", but it appears this transition will occur too late to impact the summer convective season in California."

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View entire articlie here: http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/blogs/science-quest/

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