[californiadisasters] Weighing Costs, Benefits of West Coast Quake Warning System

The California prototype has been able to detect a few small earthquakes and send out warning signals

Updated 8:08 AM PDT, Mon, Mar 14, 2011

The magnitude 8.9 earthquake that ruptured the seafloor off Japan was the first major test of the nation's $1 billion investment in earthquake early-warning technology.

Follow: Conan Nolan in Japan

Similar systems could be installed in California, scientists said, but it would be expensive.

There's another consideration -- what to do with the information.

"It has to be a very clear message, and people have to know what to do with the information," said John Vidale, director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network at the University of Washington.

The rising death toll in Japan underscores the limitations of a warning system. Alerts are most valuable to those in communities distant from the epicenter. For those near Ground Zero, like the Japanese coastal cities flattened by tsunami waves, there's not enough time to sound the alarm.

Even 15 or 20 seconds can be enough time for people to dive under a table, for train operators to hit the brakes and for factories to shut down production lines, said Tom Jordan, director of the Southern California Earthquake Center.

"In my book, every second counts," he said.

Along with the U.S. Geological Survey, Jordan and a consortium of colleagues have been fine-tuning and testing a prototype warning system in California for years. Rolling it out statewide would cost $100 million, he said.

In Japan, where earthquake preparedness is woven into the fabric of life, the government spares little expense to protect its citizenry.

"For every 10 seismic stations we buy (in the United States), they buy a thousand," Cal Tech geophysicist Egill Hauksson said.

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View entire article plus video here: http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/West-Coast-Quake-Warning-System-117931214.html?__source=Newsletter-Daily

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