She's guilty of one count of arson, a felony, by starting the first fire; two if she was charged with letting a fire get out of control. Being a minor, she'll get relatively light treatment in the court but it may follow her for a long time (records are routinely sealed). At the least, she'll go through a firestarter program (psych treatment) and be monitored closely (probably house arrest plus school since that is a fairly affluent area). Minors at her age (13) are generally considered as good rehabilitation cases; when the child is ~14-15, not as much. Any other miscreant action and she's toast (pun intended).
Appalling (but not uncommon) that it is a case of conflicting experts; it makes the FD look bad. It comes down to (for the jury) which one is more likable as opposed to facts; which is why the DA was being a jerk (valid question, phrased in ridicule to discredit regardless of the answer). Having said that, there is significant room for data error, therefore judgement; it's an art as well as a science. Not every piece of data can be collected resulting in a file bin called "stuff happens" (the unexplainable). That is exactly why the experts are called in for an opinion; any scientist can relate the known facts, experts know about the 'stuff' bin and draw from it (experience).
I've seen the aftermath of that day and came to one simpler conclusion: although the fires in the area that day were tragic, including loss of life; the folks living there (including my son and his wife, they sheltered in place, less than a mile away) simply got lucky. It could have been very easily been much worse; worse yet again if it had been in the traditional 'fire season' instead of early in the year. On a hot October day it would have swept the entire north county, stopping only when the wind stopped.
It was not just a case of "run away" for the residents; but which way and how fast because there were multiple simultaneous fires, all growing rapidly which limited the options (to the beach, it's SoCal, to the beach!). Although SoCal residents are well practiced in many things, a fire escape plan (like a tsunami plan) needs to be posted, often stated to remind and foremost on their minds. The highways they 'live' on may not be the best choices (closed or clogged) and surface streets are never free of traffic. Having a plan B through YYY would be a very wise decision.
Considering that the available resources were continually being drawn to other fires, the fire agencies did extremely well (adapt and overcome is the motto). Everyone was indeed fortunate that it wasn't worse than it was. That potential still exists; and not just in SoCal.
NOW is the time for your clearing (burning if allowed) and veg reduction. NOW NOW NOW! In a month it might be too late. Get to work!
Rick
Source:Investigator Says Traveling Ember Didn't Start Cocos Fire
By Andie Adams | NBC-TV San Diego
Published at 9:33 AM PDT on Mar 21, 2015An investigator testified Friday the flames started by a girl in her backyard could not have created the ember that sparked the Cocos Fire.
It was the battle of the experts as both the prosecution and defense brought in their own fire investigators, ending the second week of a 14-year-old girl's arson trial. The San Marcos teen, who NBC 7 is not identifying because of her age, faces four felony counts.
The prosecution alleges when the girl used a lighter to set a branch on fire in her backyard, it started the smaller Washingtonia Fire. An ember from that blaze then traveled nearly half a mile, igniting the destructive Cocos Fire, they say.
The defense's wildfire expert, Douglas Allen, testified Friday the Washingtonia Fire did not have enough loft to launch embers more than 200 feet, let along 11 times that distance. He said strong winds like the Santa Anas blowing that day -- May 13, 2014 – often bring embers to the ground.
"They have a much better chance of being lofted with less wind affecting the convection column," said Allen, referring to the rising column of smoke and ashes created by a fire.
Upon cross-examination, Allen admitted he has written that Santa Ana winds could spread embers more than a mile away. However, he maintained that while that statement is in general true, he does not believe that happened in this case.
Deputy District Attorney Shawnalyse Ochoa then tried to put the retired fire investigator's recent training into question. Asked when was the last time he took a wildland fire class, he said "I couldn't remember."
"What decade was that?" Ochoa asked.
"Was that a joke?" Allen replied laughing.
"No, sir," the prosecutor said.
"In the last decade," Allen testified.
Ochoa asked if he was familiar computer programs like Behave Plus or Wind Ninja – computer programs that help wildfire experts in their investigation. Allen said while familiar with them, he has not used them.
Earlier in the day, Cal Fire Behavior Analyst Tim Chavez took the stand, directly contradicting Allen. He said he has high confidence an ember from the Washintonia Fire started the Cocos blaze -- what the prosecution has been arguing.
Chavez told the court a computer system estimated the wind speeds that day were around 24 miles per hour. However, he said when you stand where the Cocos Fire started, there is a narrow gap in the topography that could have pushed the winds stronger that day, sending an ember from the Washingtonia Fire to the start of the Cocos Fire.
Defense attorney Ryan McGlinn asked about examples of the three fires Chavez had witnessed that saw an ember travel further than half a mile to start a fire and asked if the terrain matched that of the Cocos Fire.
The defense said the report on the Cocos Fire is based on a theory that doesn't match the same conditions of the Washingtonia Fire and that theory hasn't been proven.
The trial continues Monday.
www.nbclosangeles.com/news/california/-Investigator-Says-Traveling-Ember-Couldnt-Have-Started-Cocos-Fire-297111161.html
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