Tuesday, September 30, 2014

[californiadisasters] CAL FIRE Situation Report For September 29, 2014





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Posted by: Kim Noyes <kimnoyes@gmail.com>


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[californiadisasters] Fire Weather Watches - SoCal & CenCal (9/30/14-PM)



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT  THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY  MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS DUE TO LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY NORTHEAST  WINDS...    .AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING AN  EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHWEST  CALIFORNIA STARTING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  IN ADDITION...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS  EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING...PEAKING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY  MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND UP TO 30 MPH  ACROSS THE VALLEYS. THE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DIMINISH SOME THURSDAY  AFTERNOON AND THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY  MORNING. HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND  CONTINUE FALLING THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD VALUES AT OR BELOW 10  PERCENT.    THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY  WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE  LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. THERE IS A  POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD  TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY MORNING. THE HOT AND  DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.    CAZ246-253-254-011700-  /O.CON.KLOX.FW.A.0008.141002T0700Z-141004T0200Z/  SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-  VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS / LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST-  LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS / ANGELES NATIONAL FOREST-  1252 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014    ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT  THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY  MOUNTAINS INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS FOR LOW HUMIDITIES  AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS...    * WINDS...POTENTIAL FOR NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25    MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH    THURSDAY MORNING. THE WINDS MAY DIMINISH SOME THURSDAY    AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.    * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER TEENS TO UPPER    SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY. POOR HUMIDITY    RECOVERIES ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE    DIGIT HUMIDITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY.    * TEMPERATURES...RISING INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S BY THURSDAY...    AND INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ON FRIDAY.    * IMPACTS...WITH EXTREMELY DRY FUELS IN PLACE...IF FIRE IGNITION    OCCURS THERE COULD BE RAPID SPREAD OF WILDFIRE THAT WOULD LEAD    TO A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...    A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS  ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR  FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD OF THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH. LISTEN FOR  LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS.    &&    $$

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA  1252 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014    ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT  THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY  MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS DUE TO LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY NORTHEAST  WINDS...    .AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING AN  EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHWEST  CALIFORNIA STARTING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  IN ADDITION...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS  EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING...PEAKING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY  MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND UP TO 30 MPH  ACROSS THE VALLEYS. THE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DIMINISH SOME THURSDAY  AFTERNOON AND THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY  MORNING. HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND  CONTINUE FALLING THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD VALUES AT OR BELOW 10  PERCENT.    THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY  WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE  LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. THERE IS A  POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD  TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY MORNING. THE HOT AND  DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.    CAZ244-245-288-547-548-011700-  /O.CON.KLOX.FW.A.0008.141002T0700Z-141004T0200Z/  VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-  SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-  LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-  1252 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014    ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT  THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY  VALLEYS FOR LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS...    * WINDS...POTENTIAL FOR NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25    MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH    THURSDAY MORNING. THE WINDS MAY DIMINISH SOME THURSDAY    AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.    * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER TEENS TO UPPER    SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY. POOR HUMIDITY    RECOVERIES ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE    DIGIT HUMIDITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY.    * TEMPERATURES...WIDESPREAD 90S THURSDAY...AND INTO THE LOWER    100S ON FRIDAY.    * IMPACTS...WITH EXTREMELY DRY FUELS IN PLACE...IF FIRE IGNITION    OCCURS THERE COULD BE RAPID SPREAD OF WILDFIRE THAT WOULD LEAD    TO A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...    A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS  ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR  FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD OF THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH. LISTEN FOR  LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS.
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD


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Posted by: Kim Noyes <kimnoyes@gmail.com>


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[californiadisasters] North Ops News & Notes Update (9/30/14-6PM)



Date
Time
News and Notes
09/30/2014
1800
CA-ENF King Fire: 97,099 acres, 94% contained. The fire increased in fire behavior today with more smokes showing on the interior due to drying fuels.
09/30/2014
1800
CA-KNF Happy Camp Complex: 132,733 acres, 97% contained.
09/30/2014
0730
CA-ENF King Fire: 97,099 acres, 92% contained. California IMT1 - Team 1 (McGowan) will assume command of the entire incident effective 1800 tonight.
09/29/2014
1815
CA-ENF King Fire: 97,099 acres, 92% contained. Heat remains in the heavier fuels and the heavy duff that was sheltered from the rain under dense timber canopy. Mop up and patrol continues. Further demobilization of excess resources continued today.
09/29/2014
1800
CA-KNF Happy Camp Complex: 132,733 acres, 97% contained.
09/29/2014
1045
The National Interagency Coordination Center has lowered the National Preparedness Level to PL 1.
09/29/2014
0800
CA-ENF King Fire: 97,099 acres, 89% contained. California IMT1- Team 1 (McGowan) assumed command of Zone 2 at 0700 hours this morning. California IMT1 Team 5 (Giachino) remains in command of Zone 2. Fire spread has been halted due to recent precipitation, however heat remains in the heavier fuels. Interior fire activity and smoke production is expected to increase with warmer and drier weather this week.
09/29/2014
0800
CA-KNF Happy Camp Complex: 132,733 acres, 97% contained. Interior fuels continue to smolder.
Source: http://gacc.nifc.gov/oncc/predictive/intelligence/news_notes/index.htm


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Posted by: Kim Noyes <kimnoyes@gmail.com>


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[californiadisasters] On This Date In California Weather History (September 30)



2010: Fresno set a record high of 101° F beating the old record of 99° F set back in 1991.
This old record was the only record high maximum temperature that was below 100° F degrees for September.
All of the record high maximum temperatures for Fresno for the month of September are now in the triple digits.

2001:
Thunderstorms developed in mountains and inland valleys of Southern California each day starting on this day and ending on 10.1.
Flooding was reported in Beaumont.
One was killed by lightning at Cuyamaca Rancho State Park.

1988: Fresno set a high of 99° F, making it the only day during the month of September the city has never seen a triple digit high temperature.

1982: It was 49° F in Borrego Springs, the lowest temperature on record for September.
This also occurred on 9.27.1986 and 9.30.1971.

1980: The high temperature at Lovelock, NV was 90° F.

1971: Caribbean Sea Hurricane Irene crossed Nicaragua and reformed in the eastern Pacific as Hurricane Olivia.
Olivia recurved to the northeast and made landfall in central Baja California with rainfall of up to 1" in the southern deserts on this day and on 10.1.
This occurred during the La Niña of 1970-71.

1971:  4" of snow fell at Donner Memorial State Park.

1970: Drought in Southern California climaxed and hot Santa Ana winds blew starting on 9.25 and ending on this day.
Winds peaked at 60 mph at Cuyamaca.
The winds sparked the Laguna Fire, one of the largest in California history.
Eight were killed, 400 homes were destroyed, and 185,000 acres were burned as of 9.28 from Cuyamaca to Alpine.
In all, the fire consumed whole communities of interior San Diego County.
500,000 acres were burned and caused fifty million dollars in damage.

1950: Livermore had a low temperature of 35
° F.

1950: Fresno reached a chilly 37° F for a low temperature, establishing a record low for the month.
This is also the earliest low temperature in the season below 40° F on record in Fresno.
Frost was reported in the Fresno area as well for the earliest time ever.

1950: The morning low temperature at Reno, NV was 21° F.

1946: Woodfords recorded 1.27" of precipitation.

1946: A tropical storm moved northward into northern Baja California and dissipated with rainfall of up to 4" in the mountains on this day and exceeding 4" in the mountains on 10.1.
This occurred during the El Niño of 1946-47.

1932: Flash flood at Woodfords generated a 45-foot wall of water which killed 15 people and destroyed several locomotives.
Flash flooding also occurred in the Tehachapi Mountains

1932: Heavy rains starting on 9.28 and ending on 10.1 came from a dying tropical cyclone.
It brought flooding to parts of the mountains and deserts of Southern California.
4.38" of rain fell at Tehachapi in 7 hours on this day.
Floods in Tehachapi resulted in 15 deaths.

1930: It was 46° in Palm Springs, the lowest temperature on record for September.

1921: 1.23" of rain fell in San Diego, the greatest daily amount on record for September.
1.5" fell on this day and on 10.1, the greatest 24-hour total on record for September.

1921: A tropical storm crossed the Baja peninsula southwest of Yuma, AZ, and moved up the Colorado River Valley.
Several stations along the Colorado River reported in excess of 3" of rain, including 3.65" at Yuma.
Other amounts included 1.5" at Flagstaff, 1.24" at Prescott, 0.68" at Tucson, and 0.56" at Phoenix, AZ.

1894: Fresno had its' coldest maximum on record for the month of September – the high this day reached only 56° F.

Source: NWS San Francisco/Monterey, Hanford, Reno, Phoenix, & San Diego

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Posted by: Kim Noyes <kimnoyes@gmail.com>


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[californiadisasters] On This Date In California Weather History (September 29)



1982: Greatest daily September snowfall on record in Reno, NV, with 1.5" measured.

1976: Pinnacles National Monument received 1.18" of rain.


1976:
Thunderstorms struck the central and southern San Joaquin Valley with up to 2-1/2" of rain falling in some areas.
Dramatic lightning displays were seen from Fowler to Delano and marble size hail fell in Visalia and Porterville.
The storm knocked out power to several thousand customers and also struck two F-106s airplanes operated by the Fresno Air National Guard causing burn marks on the planes. The heavy rain also caused a roof to collapse at a building under construction as well as flooded homes, businesses and streets.
It also caused additional damage to crops that were seriously affected by the rain associated with Tropical Depression Kathleen.

1970: Drought in Southern California climaxed and hot Santa Ana winds blew starting on 9.25 and ending on 9.30. Winds peaked at 60 mph at Cuyamaca.
The winds sparked the Laguna Fire, one of the largest in California history.
8 were killed, 400 homes were destroyed, and 185,000 acres were burned as of 9.28 from Cuyamaca to Alpine.
In all, the fire consumed whole communities of interior San Diego County.
500,000 acres were burned and caused $50 million in damage.

1965: The morning low temperature at Reno, NV was 23° F.

1946: A tropical storm moved northward into northern Baja California and dissipated.
Moisture from this system produced a particular cloudburst of 3" in 30 minutes in San Bernardino.
Around San Bernardino farmlands, orchards and vineyards were eroded and some roads were damaged.
Many homes were flooded.

1932: Heavy rains starting on 9.28 and ending on 10.1 came from a dying tropical cyclone.
It brought flooding to parts of the mountains and deserts of Southern California.
4.38" of rain fell at Tehachapi in 7 hours on 9.30.
Floods in Tehachapi resulted in 15 deaths.

1921: A tropical storm crossed the Baja peninsula southwest of Yuma, AZ, and moved up the Colorado River Valley.
Several stations along the Colorado River reported in excess of 3" of rain, including 3.65" at Yuma.
Other amounts included 1.5" at Flagstaff, 1.24" at Prescott, 0.68" at Tucson, and 0.56" at Phoenix, AZ.

1894: San Francisco received 0.68" of rain.

1890: 1.12" of rain falls in Fresno, tying the highest calendar day amount on record for the month of September last set on September 26, 1898.

Source: NWS San Francisco/Monterey, Hanford, Reno, Las Vegas, Phoenix, & San Diego

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Posted by: Kim Noyes <kimnoyes@gmail.com>


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[Geology2] The Volcanoes of Kamchatka





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Posted by: Lin Kerns <linkerns@gmail.com>



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Re: [Geology2] Raw footage of Mt. Ontake 09272014



Most experts are still calling it a phreatic eruption with ash and steam, but there are a few who are just as confused. Survivors have stated that large chunks of rock pelted them and killed some of the others. Still, there wasn't much of a warning and that is why geologists are saying it was phreatic in nature. One of the images I tweeted earlier today shows the lodge beneath the peak covered with inches of ash. Not all of the bodies have been retrieved; I think that once that happens a bigger picture will emerge.

Lin


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Posted by: Lin Kerns <linkerns@gmail.com>



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Re: [Geology2] Raw footage of Mt. Ontake 09272014



I'm confused: first, it looks a bunch like the video of the pyroclastic flow that killed the Krafts and Dr. Glick. And two, I thought that was a phreatic eruption the other day after initially believing it to be a pyroclastic flow, but this clearly shows a pyroclastic flow.


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Posted by: Kim Noyes <kimnoyes@gmail.com>



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[Geology2] An Utterly Terrifying Risk Assessment of California's Next Big Earthquake



An Utterly Terrifying Risk Assessment of California's Next Big Earthquake

The worst-case scenario means endless fires, impotent rescue services, and no water for months.

  • John Metcalfe
Image A fireman near Los Angeles searches for water in the aftermath of 1994's Northridge quake. (Associated Press)

Scientists don't know when California's next great earthquake will strike, but they do know just about everything else about it, and the potential ramifications are terrifying: impotent rescue services, widespread fires, and no fresh water for months.

And yet California officials haven't done much to prepare for such an immense disaster, said Lucy Jones, a seismologist at the U.S. Geological Service, at The Atlantic's CityLab 2014 summit in Los Angeles. "There's so much that science knows about what's going to happen, and we're seeing that not being used," she said.

Jones is working with the L.A. government to create a seismic-resilience plan, and she had a dire warning for other California cities that don't brace for the worst from the San Andreas fault. Behold, a couple of the most terrifying run-on sentences in existence:

"When the San Andreas earthquake happens in Southern California—and that's the most-likely big earthquake in the United States—we know that all of the transportation life lines, the electric systems, the water systems, the gas lines, that cross the San Andreas fault, exactly where they'll break and what will happen when they break. That hasn't gotten anybody to do anything about them. So here in Los Angeles, we get 85 percent of our water from outside the region—that means across the San Andreas fault—in aqueducts that will break, [and] we could tell you how many times they're going to break and that it's going to take 18 months to get them fixed again and we have six-months' supply of water on this side of the fault—when we're not in a drought and the reservoirs are full."

Perhaps Californians aren't taking the San Andreas fault as seriously as they should because of the awful, but not civilization-stalling damage from the last mega temblor, the 1994 Northridge earthquake. But that disaster was piddling compared to what the "Big One" could bode, said Jones.

"When we have the San Andreas earthquake, that earth fault will probably be about 20 to 30 times larger than the fault that produced the Northridge earthquake," she said. (That quake killed 57 people and caused roughly $20 billion in damages.) But San Andreas is a much longer fault, and that means it can release a ton more energy. "And then instead of having a half-million people receiving a strong shaking, we're going to have 10 million people receiving the same level of strong shaking."

An event of this magnitude will likely trigger a catastrophic situation for emergency responders. "When you have that many fires starting—because the fires are proportional to the number of houses receiving strong shaking—we run out of fire engines," Jones said. "We know we will not have enough fire engines to handle the fires. And mutual aid is going to have to cross that broken San Andreas to get to us.

"When you get to the very biggest earthquakes you've seen, these fires get completely out of control," she continued. "They were a problem but manageable in Northridge. In the Great (Kanto) Earthquake that hit Tokyo in 1923, 150,000 people died because basically the city burned down." (Note that in this modern age, that toll would be much lower.)

But Californians can console themselves with one comforting thought: At least their past experiences with quakes have led to a much better-prepared infrastructure than, say, certain older cities on the East Coast. Here's Jones with the last word:

"I'll tell ya, I'd rather be in a big earthquake here than in Boston. It's not just that [the buildings] are old; they're brick. They're unretrofitted; the roofs are being held up by brick walls; and when you shake them in an earthquake the mortar dissolves and they're gone. We know those buildings are going to kill people. Now the last significant quake they had was in the 17th century... But they had a significant earthquake in the 17th century. They will again.

http://www.citylab.com/weather/2014/09/a-most-terrifying-risk-assessment-of-californias-next-big-earthquake/380934/
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Posted by: Lin Kerns <linkerns@gmail.com>



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[Geology2] Raw footage of Mt. Ontake 09272014




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[californiadisasters] King fire: rescue story

http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona/2014/09/28/wildfire-king-fire-helicopter-pilot-crew-rescue/16394813/

73,
Rick wa6nhc

Tiny iPhone 5 keypad, typos are inevitable

------------------------------------
Posted by: Rick Bates <happymoosephoto@gmail.com>
------------------------------------

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[Geology2] Why Japan’s deadly Ontake eruption could not be predicted



30 September 2014

Why Japan's deadly Ontake eruption could not be predicted

Mount Ontake, Japan's second-highest volcano, erupted killing at least 31 people on September 27. Since then, there has been feverish speculation about why tourists were on an active volcano and why the…

Author: Rebecca Williams

Lecturer in Volcanology at University of Hull

Phreatic eruption: Mount Ontake. EPA/Ministry of Land, Infrastructure

Mount Ontake, Japan's second-highest volcano, erupted killing at least 31 people on September 27. Since then, there has been feverish speculation about why tourists were on an active volcano and why the eruption wasn't predicted.

Mount Ontake (also known as Ontakesan) is a stratovolcano which last erupted in 1979-80 and 2007 (there was also a possible, unconfirmed eruption in 1991). Before this, there were no recorded historical eruptions at Mount Ontake.

Since the eruption in 1980, Ontake has been monitored by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). It has seismometers around the volcano to record volcanic tremors and instruments to measure any changes around the volcano. This would provide the JMA with signs that there was magma movement underneath the volcano and that perhaps an eruption was imminent. There had been a slight increase in volcanic tremors starting at the beginning of September. Why, then, was this eruption not predicted?

No warnings

Firstly, the ability to predict volcanic eruptions is an ambition that volcanologists are far from realising. Magma movement under a volcano will cause volcanic tremor, make the ground rise and fall and release gases such as sulphur dioxide. If these signs are monitored closely, then it may be possible to forecast that an eruption may be imminent.

Safe distance. EPA/Kimimasa Mayama
Click to enlarge

However, all of these things can also happen without any volcanic eruption. Knowing what these signs mean for an individual volcano relies on data collected during previous eruptive episodes, as each volcano behaves differently. Mount Ontake has only had two known historical eruptions and previous to the 1979 eruption, had not been monitored, so scientists here had no previous data to work with. Volcanic tremors are very common at active volcanoes and often occur without being associated with an eruption.

Secondly, the type of eruption that volcanologists think occurred at Ontake is one that does not cause the signals typically monitored at volcanoes. The images and videos captured by hikers on the volcano show that the ash cloud was mostly white, which can be interpreted to mean that the eruption was mostly steam.

The effects of the pyroclastic density currents, the flows of ash, and gas that flowed over the ground from the summit, suggest that they were low-temperature and low concentration. Both of these point to there being no magma directly involved in the eruption. Instead, it is likely water had seeped into the volcano and was superheated by magma within the volcano and flashed to steam causing what is known as a phreatic eruption. Phreatic eruptions occur without magma movement, hence the lack of precursor signals. The 2007 eruption was also phreatic and also occurred with little warning.

Power of nature

So, if an eruption like the one in Japan could not be predicted, should tourists have been allowed up Mount Ontake? Ontake is a place for religious pilgrimage, as well as a popular destination for hikers and climbers. This is quite common for volcanoes around the world; tourists flock to Kilauea, Hawaii to watch the lava flows, climb volcanoes in the Cascade Range, USA and even ski at volcanoes such as Ruapehu in New Zealand. A phreatic explosion such as the one seen at Ontake on Saturday is possible at all of these places.

There is something compelling about the power of nature, and the beauty of a volcano that draws people to them. Volcanoes are inherently dangerous places and there will always be risks to those who visit them. However, events like that at Ontake are thankfully rare. Laying the blame at the foot of either the hikers, or the authorities that allow tourists to visit active volcanoes would be misplaced.

The events at Ontake were tragic. It's my opinion that it was a tragedy that could not have been predicted or prevented, given our current level of knowledge. It highlights the need to understand volcanic systems better. My thoughts are with the survivors, and the families of those who didn't make it.

https://theconversation.com/why-japans-deadly-ontake-eruption-could-not-be-predicted-32333?utm_content=buffercf577&utm
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[Geology2] Tooth buried in bone shows prehistoric predators tangled across land, sea



Tooth buried in bone shows prehistoric predators tangled across land, sea

Date:
September 29, 2014
Source:
Virginia Tech
Summary:
Before dinosaurs, it was thought the top aquatic and terrestrial predators didn't often interact. But researchers have discovered that the smaller of the two apex predators was potentially targeting the larger animal.








Teeth from phytosaurs, a reptile from the Triassic Period about 210 million years ago in what is now the western United States. The blue tooth on the left is a 3-D printed replica of a tooth embedded in the thigh bone of a rauisuchid, another Triassic period carnivore. The details of the tooth were digitally extracted using CT scans.
Credit: Virginia Tech



About 210 million years ago when the supercontinent of Pangea was starting to break up and dog-sized dinosaurs were hiding from nearly everything, entirely different kinds of reptiles called phytosaurs and rauisuchids were at the top of the food chain.

It was widely believed the two top predators didn't interact much as the former was king of the water, and the latter ruled the land. But those ideas are changing, thanks largely to the contents of a single bone.

In a paper published online in September in the German journal Naturwissenschaften, Stephanie Drumheller of the University of Tennessee and Michelle Stocker and Sterling Nesbitt, vertebrate paleontologists with the Virginia Tech's Department of Geosciences, present evidence the two creatures not only interacted, but did so on purpose.

"Phytosaurs were thought to be dominant aquatic predators because of their large size and similarity to modern crocodylians," said Stocker, "but we were able to provide the first direct evidence they targeted both aquatic and large terrestrial prey."

The evidence? A tooth. Not just any tooth, but the tooth of a phytosaur lodged in the thigh bone of a rauisuchid, a creature about 25 feet long and 4 feet high at the hip. The tooth lay broken off and buried about two inches deep in bone, and then healed over, indicating the rauisuchid survived the attack.

"Finding teeth embedded directly in fossil bone is very, very rare," Drumheller said. "This is the first time it's been identified among phytosaurs, and it gives us a smoking gun for interpreting this set of bite marks."

The researchers came across the bone by chance at the University of California Museum of Paleontology in Berkeley.

"It was remarkable we were able to reconstruct a part of an ancient food web from over 210 million years ago from a few shallow marks and a tooth in a bone," said Nesbitt. "It goes to show how careful observation can lead to important discoveries even when you're not seeking those answers.

"We came across this bone and realized pretty quickly we had something special," Nesbitt said. "There are many bones that get dug up, not all are immediately processed, prepared, and studied. No one had recognized the importance of this specimen before but we were able to borrow it and make our study."

The large rauisuchid thigh bone at the center of the research has the tooth of the attacker, which the researchers recreated using CT scans and a 3-D printer. Multiple bite marks indicate the creature was preyed upon at least twice over the course of its life, by phytosaurs.

"This research will call for us to go back and look at some of the assumptions we've had in regard to the Late Triassic ecosystems," Stocker said. "The distinctions between aquatic and terrestrial distinctions were over-simplified and I think we've made a case that the two spheres were intimately connected."


Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by Virginia Tech. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


Journal Reference:

  1. Stephanie K. Drumheller, Michelle R. Stocker, Sterling J. Nesbitt. Direct evidence of trophic interactions among apex predators in the Late Triassic of western North America. Naturwissenschaften, 2014; DOI: 10.1007/s00114-014-1238-3

Virginia Tech. "Tooth buried in bone shows prehistoric predators tangled across land, sea." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 29 September 2014. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/09/140929090610.htm>.

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