Friday, July 31, 2015

[californiadisasters] South Ops News & Notes Update (7/31/15-6:10PM)

*NOTE:

CNF = Cleveland National Forest
FRA = Federal Responsibility Area
ICT = Incident Command Team
IMT = Incident Management Team
NIMO = Northwest Incident Management Team
PL = Preparedness Level
SHF = Shasta-Trinity National Forest
SNF = Sierra National Forest
SQF = Sequoia National Forest
SRA = State Responsibility Area
TCU = Tuolumne-Calaveras Unit CALFIRE

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07/31/2015 - 6:10 p.m.

Cabin CA-SQF-002313, Tulare County, Update
Golden Trout Wilderness area
FRA
2,000 Acres, 0% contained, heavy timber
No structure threats.
CA Interagency IMT Team 1 (McGowan) inbriefed at 1000 hrs this morning and will assume command at 0600 August 1, 2015.
Fire is in a no retardant and no mechanical equipment zone.
A 6 hour hike is required for ground resources to reach fire.
Trails within the fire area have been closed by Forest Order.
Wilderness Permits are being examined to confirm permittees have been contacted or evacuated.

Willow, CA-SNF-001689, Vegetation Fire, Madera County, Update
Willow Canyon Dr. X Rd 274 – North Fork area
FRA/SRA
4,394 Acres, heavy brush and timber, 40% Contained
South Central Sierra Interagency IMT (Cooper) is in Unified Command with CAL FIRE (Smith)
Evacuations remain unchanged.
Structure protection of Cascadel, Central Camp, and Bass Lake subdivisions.
An Evacuation Center has been established in Oakhurst at the Oakhurst Community Center.
Critical resources requested are needed to abate imminent structure threat by building contingency line
and providing structure protection.
Fire growth as offset containment progress explaining the lack of increase in containment percentage.

Big Creek CA-TCU-007806, Tuolumne County, Update
Location: Sprague Rd E x Highway 120 east of the community of Groveland
State DPA, FRA
204 acres, timber, 45% contained
25 structures were evacuated. Crews are working to gain containment.
Threat to commercial timber, Hetch Hetchy Water and Power, PG&E infrastructure,
and Tuolumne Wild and Scenic River drainage.

Cutca, CA-CNF-002466, San Diego County, Update
Cutca Trail, Palomar Mountain
150 Acres, 90% Contained
Type 3 ICT (Forster/Hill)
No change in conditions.
This will be the final report, unless conditions change.
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07/31/2015 - 5:00 p.m.    Predictive services Podcast (weather) will be avaliable tomorrow at its regulary scheduled time.
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07/31/2015 - 1:00 p.m.

North Ops is PL4, MACS Mode3; vonTillow, River Complex SHF; Young, NorCal, Fork Complex SHF; Kurth, NorCal, Frog Fire MDF; Walker, SoCal, Mad River Complex SRF; Garwood, SoCal, Prepo to McClellan
Quisenberry's NIMO Team assigned to the SHF; Area Command Staged at McClellan
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07/31/2015 - 11:10 a.m.     The National Preparedness Level has increased to 3 due to increased fire activity.
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07/31/2015 - 8:00 a.m.

Cabin CA-SQF-002313, Tulare County, Update
Golden Trout Wilderness area
FRA
1,900 Acres, 0% contained, heavy timber
No structure threats.
CA Interagency IMT Team 1 (McGowan) has been mobed with a tentative inbrief at 1000 today at Springville Ranger Station.
Fire is in a no retardant and no mechanical equipment zone.
A 6 hour hike is required for ground resources to reach fire.
Approximately 22 youth campers voluntarily evacuated from their out camp at Lion Meadows back to their main camp.
                                                                                               Willow, CA-SNF-001689, Vegetation Fire, Madera County, Update
Willow Canyon Dr. X Rd 274 – North Fork area
FRA/SRA
4,394 Acres, heavy brush and timber, 30% Contained
South Central Sierra Interagency IMT (Cooper) is in Unified Command with CAL FIRE (Smith)
Evacuations remain unchanged.
Structure protection of Cascadel, Central Camp, and Bass Lake subdivisions.
To reduce the logistical complexities associated with travel distances the fire has been separated
into two geographic and one functional branch.
An Evacuation Center has been established in Oakhurst at the Oakhurst Community Center.

Big Creek CA-TCU-007806, Tuolumne County, Update
Location: Sprague Rd E x Highway 120 east of the community of Groveland
State DPA, FRA
204 acres, timber,34% contained
25 structures were evacuated. Crews are working to gain containment.
Threat to commercial timber, Hetch Hetchy Water and Power, PG&E infrastructure,
and Tuolumne Wild and Scenic River drainage.

Cutca, CA-CNF-002466, San Diego County, Update
Cutca Trail, Palomar Mountain
150 Acres, 85% Contained
Type 3 ICT (Forster/Hill)
No change in conditions.
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07/30/2015 - 7:00 p.m.

Cabin CA-SQF-002313, Tulare County, Update
Golden Trout Wilderness area
FRA
800 Acres, 0% contained, heavy timber
No structure threats.
CA Interagency IMT Team 1 (McGowan) has been mobed with a tentative inbrief at 1000 tomorrow at Springville Ranger Station.
Fire is in a no retardant and no mechanical equipment zone.
A 6 hour hike is required for ground resources to reach fire.
Nine campers were evacuated by helicopter from Pecks Cabin, private property within wilderness area,
back to Peppermint Helibase.
Reduction in acreage is due to improved visibility.
                                                                                                                        Willow, CA-SNF-001689, Vegetation Fire, Madera County, Update
Willow Canyon Dr. X Rd 274 – North Fork area
FRA/SRA
3,383 Acres, heavy brush and timber, 30% Contained
South Central Sierra Interagency IMT (Cooper) is in Unified Command with CAL FIRE (Smith)
Evacuations remain unchanged.
Structure protection of Cascadel, Central Camp, and Bass Lake subdivisions.
To reduce the logistical complexities associated with travel distances the fire has been separated
into two geographic and one functional branch.
An Evacuation Center has been established in Oakhurst at the Oakhurst Community Center.

Big Creek CA-TCU-007806, Tuolumne County, Update
Location: Sprague Rd E x Highway 120 east of the community of Groveland
State DPA, FRA
204 acres, timber, 5% contained
25 structures were evacuated. Crews are working to gain containment.
Threat to commercial timber, Hetch Hetchy Water and Power, PG&E infrastructure,
and Tuolumne Wild and Scenic River drainage.

Cutca, CA-CNF-002466, San Diego County, Update
Cutca Trail, Palomar Mountain
150 Acres, 85% Contained
Type 3 ICT (Forster/Hill)
No change in conditions.
--------------------------------------------
07/30/2015 - 8:30 a.m.

Big Creek CA-TCU-007806, Tuolumne County, Update
Location: Sprague Rd E x Highway 120 east of the community of Groveland
State DPA, FRA
150 acres, timber, 5% contained
Dangerous Rate of Spread
Threat to structures on Sprague Road and Hells Hollow Road, evacuations in progress
Road closure on Highway 120

Cabin CA-SQF-002313, Tulare County, Update
Location: Golden Trout Wilderness area
FRA
350 Acres, 0% contained, heavy timber
No structure threats.
Fire is in a no retardant and no mechanical equipment zone.
A 6 hour hike is required for ground resources to reach fire.

Cutca, CA-CNF-002466, San Diego County, Update
Cutca Trail, Palomar Mountain
150 Acres, 80% Contained
Type 3 ICT (Forster/Hill)
No change in conditions.
                                                                                                                        Willow, CA-SNF-001689, Vegetation Fire, Madera County, Update
Willow Canyon Dr. X Rd 274 – North Fork area
FRA/SRA
3,383 Acres, heavy brush and timber, 30% Contained
South Central Sierra Interagency IMT (Cooper) is in command
Evacuations remain unchanged.
Structure protection of Cascadel, Central Camp, and Bass Lake subdivisions.
Significant growth to the north past 7 Rock and to the south toward Peckinpah Creek
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07/29/2015 -     6:30 p.m.

Big Creek CA-TCU-007806, Tuolumne County, New
Location: Sprague Rd E x Highway 120 east of the community of Groveland
State DPA, FRA
Start Time: 1630
10 acres, timber, 0% contained
Dangerous Rate of Spread
96 degrees,14% RH, wind NW @ 8, increase with gusts to 12
Threat to structures on Sprague Road and Hells Hollow Road, evacuations in progress
Road closure on Highway 120
VLAT requested by IC

Cabin CA-SQF-002313, Tulare County, New
Location: Golden Trout Wilderness area
FRA
Start Time: 1529
180-200 Acres, 0% contained, heavy timber
90 degrees, 16%RH, wind SE 2mph, gusts to 15mph
No structure threats.
Fire is in a no retardant zone.
A 6 hour hike is required for ground resources to reach fire.

Cutca, CA-CNF-002466, San Diego County, Update
Cutca Trail, Palomar Mountain
167 Acres, 80% Contained
Type 3 ICT (Forster/Hill)
Continue to hold and improve existing line, continue to look for spot fires.
Continue with backhaul, suppression and road repair.
                                                                                               Willow, CA-SNF-001689, Vegetation Fire, Madera County, Update
Willow Canyon Dr. X Rd 274 – North Fork area
FRA/SRA
2,077 Acres, heavy brush and timber, 30% Contained
South Central Sierra Interagency IMT (Cooper) is in command
Evacuations remain unchanged.
Evacuation advisory reissued to residents of Cascadel Woods.
Additional road closures are in effect due to the fire's progression today.
----------------------------------------------
07/29/2015 - 7:40 a.m.

Cutca, CA-CNF-002466, San Diego County, Update
Cutca Trail, Palomar Mountain
167 Acres, 75% Contained
Incident has transitioned to a CNF Type 3 organization (Forster/ Hill) today at 0600.
A close out with Wakoski is planned for 1000.

Willow, CA-SNF-001689, Vegetation Fire, Madera County, Update
Willow Canyon Dr. X Rd 274 � North Fork area
FRA/SRA
2,077 Acres, heavy brush and timber, 30% Contained
South Central Sierra Interagency IMT (Cooper) is in command
Evacuations remain unchanged
----------------------------------------------
07/28/2015 - 6:00 p.m.

Cutca, CA-CNF-002466, San Diego County, Update
Cutca Trail, Palomar Mountain
167 Acres, 75% Contained
SOCAL IMT #3 Wakoski remains in command of the incident
SOCAL IMT #3 is tentatively scheduled to transition with a local Type 3 organization Wednesday, July 29th at 0600.

Willow, CA-SNF-001689, Vegetation Fire, Madera County, Update
Willow Canyon Dr. X Rd 274 � North Fork area
FRA/SRA
1,739 Acres, heavy brush and timber, 30% Contained
South Central Sierra Interagency IMT (Cooper) is in command
Evacuations remain unchanged
A community meeting is planned for tonight at 1900 hours
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07/28/2015 - 7:50 a.m.

Cutca, CA-CNF-002466, San Diego County, Update
Cutca Trail, Palomar Mountain
167 Acres, 75% Contained
SOCAL IMT #3 Wakoski remains in command of the incident
SOCAL IMT #3 is tentatively scheduled to transition with a local Type 3 organization Wednesday, July 29th at 0600.

Willow, CA-SNF-001689, Vegetation Fire, Madera County, Update
Willow Canyon Dr. X Rd 274 � North Fork area
FRA/SRA
1,739 Acres, heavy brush and timber, 5% Contained
South Central Sierra Interagency IMT (Cooper) is in command.
Evacuations remain unchanged.
Smoke continues to impact Mammoth, Inyo County and the San Joaquin Valley.

Source: http://gacc.nifc.gov/oscc/predictive/intelligence/news_notes/news.php

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Posted by: Kim Noyes <kimnoyes@gmail.com>

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[californiadisasters] July 31, 2015 - The Fire Situation Report

Special Friday edition of the statewide sit-rep from our CALFIRE friends:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7THLDXCgIg&feature=youtu.be

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[californiadisasters] Frog Fire LODD Yesterday - Modoc NF

Line-of-Duty Fatality Confirmed

Incident: Frog Fire Wildfire
Released: 1:02 hrs. ago

It is with great sadness we must confirm a Forest Service firefighter lost his life yesterday while responding to the Frog Fire northwest of Adin, California. The deceased is David "Dave" Ruhl of Rapid City, South Dakota. Search and rescue was conducted throughout the night until the firefighter was found this morning. Dave was on temporary assignment to the Big Valley Ranger District of the Modoc National Forest as an Assistant Fire Management Officer since June 14. Dave's permanent position is Engine Captain on the Mystic Ranger District of the Black Hills National Forest in Rapid City. The Forest Service is investigating this line-of-duty death. "This loss of life is tragic and heartbreaking," said Forest Supervisor, Amanda McAdams. "Please keep the family and all of our Forest Service employees in your thoughts and prayers during this difficult time." The Frog Fire southeast of Lava Camp on the Big Valley Ranger District started yesterday afternoon, exhibiting active fire behavior and growing to more than 800 acres by this evening with active spotting ahead of the fire front. Northern California Team 1 is expected to take over management of the fire tomorrow morning.

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Posted by: Kim Noyes <kimnoyes@gmail.com>

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[californiadisasters] On This Date In California Weather History (July 31)

2012: A strong thunderstorm produced heavy rain in the Split Mountain area of the Anza Borrego Desert.
A 15-foot wall of water rushed through Split Mountain Road in Fish Creek. Two hikers, a man and his son, were caught in the canyon, but were able to get to higher ground and were unharmed. Their pickup truck, however, was washed 1.5 miles down the canyon and destroyed.

1993: Fort Ross had a high temperature of 88° F.

1991: Monsoon flow spawned thunderstorms that drenched Ocotillo with 6" of rain in two hours.
Part of a store and a house were flooded and buried in mud and sand.
Imperial highway was washed out. Many daily rainfall records were set on this day.

1931: Fresno reached into the triple digits for the 28th time this month.
This tied a record for the most triple digit high temperatures in the month of July last set in 1906.

1922: Lemon Cove (Tulare Co.) reached 118° F for a high temperature.

1908: 15 day stretch of consecutive days with high temperatures of 110° F or greater in Bakersfield comes to an end.
This is the city's longest stretch of extreme heat on record.

1906: Every day this month in Bakersfield had a high temperature in the triple digits.
This is the only month on record where this has ever happened.

1891: Six day streak of consecutive days with high temperatures of 110° F or better in Fresno comes to end.
This is the longest such period of heat on record in Fresno.

Source: NWS San Francisco/Monterey, Hanford, & San Diego

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Posted by: Kim Noyes <kimnoyes@gmail.com>

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[Geology2] Earth's magnetic shield is much older than previously thought

Earth's magnetic shield is much older than previously thought

An older geomagnetic field suggests an early start to plate tectonics

Date:: July 30, 2015
Source:: University of Rochester
Summary:: Since 2010, the best estimate of the age of Earth's magnetic field has been 3.45 billion years. But now a researcher responsible for that finding has new data showing the magnetic field is far older.

An artist's depiction of Earth's magnetic field deflecting high-energy protons from the sun four billion years ago. Note: The relative sizes of the Earth and Sun, as well as the distances between the two bodies, are not drawn to scale.

Credit: Graphic by Michael Osadciw/University of Rochester

Since 2010, the best estimate of the age of Earth's magnetic field has been 3.45 billion years. But now a researcher responsible for that finding has new data showing the magnetic field is far older.

John Tarduno, a geophysicist at the University of Rochester and a leading expert on Earth's magnetic field, and his team of researchers say they believe the Earth's magnetic field is at least four billion years old.

"A strong magnetic field provides a shield for the atmosphere," said Tarduno, "This is important for the preservation of habitable conditions on Earth."

The findings by Tarduno and his team have been published in the latest issue of the journal Science.

Earth's magnetic field protects the atmosphere from solar winds--streams of charged particles shooting from the Sun. The magnetic field helps prevent the solar winds from stripping away the atmosphere and water, which make life on the planet possible.

Earth's magnetic field is generated in its liquid iron core, and this "geodynamo" requires a regular release of heat from the planet to operate. Today, that heat release is aided by plate tectonics, which efficiently transfers heat from the deep interior of the planet to the surface. But, according to Tarduno, the time of origin of plate tectonics is hotly debated, with some scientists arguing that Earth lacked a magnetic field during its youth.

Given the importance of the magnetic field, scientists have been trying to determine when it first arose, which could, in turn, provide clues as to when plate tectonics got started and how the planet was able to remain habitable.

Fortunately for scientists, there are minerals--such as magnetite--that lock in the magnetic field record at the time the minerals cooled from their molten state. The oldest available minerals can tell scientists the direction and the intensity of the field at the earliest periods of Earth's history. In order to get reliable measurements, it's crucial that the minerals obtained by scientists are pristine and never reached a sufficient heat level that would have allowed the old magnetic information within the minerals to reset to the magnetic field of the later time.

The directional information is stored in microscopic grains inside magnetite- a naturally occurring magnetic iron oxide. Within the smallest magnetite grains are regions that have their own individual magnetizations and work like a tape recorder. Just as in magnetic tape, information is recorded at a specific time and remains stored unless it is replaced under specific conditions.

Tarduno's new results are based on the record of magnetic field strength fixed within magnetite found within zircon crystals collected from the Jack Hills of Western Australia. The zircons were formed over more than a billion years and have come to rest in an ancient sedimentary deposit. By sampling zircons of different age, the history of the magnetic field can be determined.

The ancient zircons are tiny--about two-tenths of a millimeter--and measuring their magnetization is a technological challenge. Tarduno and his team used a unique superconducting quantum interference device, or SQUID magnetometer, at the University of Rochester that provides a sensitivity ten times greater than comparable instruments.

But in order for today's magnetic intensity readings of the magnetite to reveal the actual conditions of that era, the researchers needed to make sure the magnetite within the zircon remained pristine from the time of formation.

Of particular concern was a period some 2.6 billion years ago during which temperatures in the rocks of the Jack Hills reached 475?C. Under those conditions, it was possible that the magnetic information recorded in the zircons would have been erased and replaced by a new, younger recording of Earth's magnetic field.

"We know the zircons have not been moved relative to each other from the time they were deposited," said Tarduno. "As a result, if the magnetic information in the zircons had been erased and re-recorded, the magnetic directions would have all been identical."

Instead, Tarduno found that the minerals revealed varying magnetic directions, convincing him that the intensity measurements recorded in the samples were indeed as old as four billion years.

The intensity measurements reveal a great deal about the presence of a geodynamo at the Earth's core. Tarduno explains that solar winds could interact with the Earth's atmosphere to create a small magnetic field, even in the absence of a core dynamo. Under those circumstances, he calculates that the maximum strength of a magnetic field would be 0.6 ?T (micro-Teslas). The values measured by Tarduno and his team were much greater than 0.6 ?T, indicating the presence of a geodynamo at the core of the planet, as well as suggesting the existence of the plate tectonics needed to release the built-up heat.

"There has been no consensus among scientists on when plate tectonics began," said Tarduno. "Our measurements, however, support some previous geochemical measurements on ancient zircons that suggest an age of 4.4 billion years."

The magnetic field was of special importance in that eon because solar winds were about 100 times stronger than today. In the absence of a magnetic field, Tarduno says the protons that make up the solar winds would have ionized and stripped light elements from the atmosphere, which, among other things, resulted in the loss of water.

Scientists believe that Mars had an active geodynamo when that planet was formed, but that it died off after four billion years. As a result, Tarduno says, the Red Planet had no magnetic field to protect the atmosphere, which may explain why its atmosphere is so thin.

"It may also be a major reason why Mars was unable to sustain life," said Tarduno.

Story Source:

The above post is reprinted from materials provided by University of Rochester. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.

Journal Reference:

J. A. Tarduno, R. D. Cottrell, W. J. Davis, F. Nimmo, R. K. Bono. A Hadean to Paleoarchean geodynamo recorded by single zircon crystals. Science, 2015; 349 (6247): 521 DOI: 10.1126/science.aaa9114

University of Rochester. "Earth's magnetic shield is much older than previously thought: An older geomagnetic field suggests an early start to plate tectonics." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 30 July 2015. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/07/150730162010.htm>.

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New Simulations of 1811-1812 New Madrid Earthquakes Show Strong and Prolonged Ground Shaking in Memphis and Little Rock
Released: 7/30/2015

Computer simulations of earthquake shaking, replicating the quakes that occurred in 1811-1812 in the New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ), indicate that future large earthquakes there would produce major, prolonged ground shaking. The 1811-1812 events were some of the largest in the United States since its settlement by Europeans, and the NMSZ spans portions of seven states: Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee and Mississippi.

Scientists from the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, the U.S. Geological Survey, San Diego State University, AECOM (formerly URS Corporation), and the University of Memphis simulated a set of 20 hypothetical, yet plausible earthquakes located along two currently active faults in the NMSZ. The hypothetical earthquake scenarios range in magnitude from 7.0 to 7.7, and consider various possible epicenters.

"Based on our simulations, were the 1811-1812 earthquakes to repeat today, more than 8 million people living and working near the New Madrid seismic zone would experience potentially damaging ground shaking at modified Mercalli intensities ranging from VI to VIII," said Leonardo Ramirez-Guzman, lead author of the paper that appears in the July 30 edition of the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.

"Strong ground shaking in the greater Memphis metropolitan area could last from 30 seconds to more than 60 seconds, depending on the magnitude and epicenter of a potential seismic event," said Ramirez-Guzman, a professor at Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México and former USGS contract scientist.

The simulations also demonstrate the importance of fault rupture directivity (seismic energy focused along the direction of faulting), especially when combined with the wave channeling effects of the Reelfoot rift, a buried, northeast-southwest trending geologic valley in the NMSZ. In particular, future large earthquakes on the approximately 80-mile long NMSZ fault show strong shaking at vibration frequencies that pose a risk for mid-rise to high-rise buildings and tall bridges. This fault is thought to be responsible for the December 16, 1811 magnitude 7-7.7 earthquake. Some of the earthquake simulations showed strong shaking focused to the northeast as far as 100-200 miles away near Paducah, Kentucky and Evansville, Indiana, and to the southwest 150 miles toward Little Rock, Arkansas. An example of this earthquake shaking focusing effect can be seen here.

While it's not possible to know which direction a fault will rupture once an earthquake starts, knowing that there is an increased chance of strong shaking along these geologically-defined corridors is a valuable aid in better characterizing seismic hazard and minimizing earthquake risk.

Earthquakes pose a significant risk to nearly 150 million Americans. The USGS and its partners in the multi-agency National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program are working to improve earthquake monitoring and reporting capabilities via the USGS Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS). More information about ANSS can be found on the ANSS website.

Peak ground-motion variability for a magnitude 7.7 earthquake. Warmer colors indicate stronger ground motions. The stronger ground motions are extended further northeast and southwest caused by the channeling effect of the Reelfoot rift (RFR) The fault is displayed as a thick black continuous straight line, with the epicenter indicated by the triangle. (high resolution image 1.3 MB)

http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=4284#.VbuBHK1HaPV
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