Thursday, July 31, 2014

[californiadisasters] Flood Watch For Private Earthen Dam In Yuba Co. (7/31/14-PM)



...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR A PRIVATE  EARTHEN DAM IN YUBA COUNTY ALONG LITTLE DRY CREEK...    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SACRAMENTO HAS ISSUED A    * FLOOD WATCH FOR A PRIVATE EARTHEN DAM IN YUBA COUNTY ALONG    LITTLE DRY CREEK.    * UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT    * YUBA COUNTY AND LOCAL OFFICIALS HAVE REPORTED THE POSSIBLITY OF    FAILURE OF A PRIVATE EARTHEN DAM ALONG LITTLE DRY CREEK IN YUBA    COUNTY. SEVERAL HOMES IN THE AREA HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED BY LOCAL    LAW ENFORCEMENT OF THE POTENTIAL DAM FAILURE. FLOODING WOULD    OCCUR IN RURAL AREAS SOUTH OF THE DAM AND POSSIBLY TOWARDS    SPRING VALLEY ROAD IN YUBA COUNTY.      PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...    BE PREPARED TO QUICKLY EVACUATE OR MOVE QUICKLY TO HIGHER GROUND  SHOULD A FLOOD WARNING BE ISSUED. PEOPLE DOWNSTREAM OF THE DAM IN  THE AREA OF THE FLOOD WATCH SHOULD MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND  OTHER NEWS OUTLETS FOR UPDATES TO THIS SITUATION. A FLOOD WATCH  ASSOCIATED WITH A DAM MEANS THERE IS AN ISSUE OR SIGNIFICANT  PROBLEM AT THE DAM THAT THE DAM OWNER IS ADDRESSING. IF THE DAM  WERE TO FAIL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WOULD UPGRADE THIS WATCH  TO A FLASH FLOOD WARNING.    &&    INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA  WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWS.SACRAMENTO  WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSSACRAMENTO


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[californiadisasters] Whoa Nelly It's Hot!

I'm working at Heritage Ranch and it is 111 degrees snd smoky hazy.

Sent from my iPhone


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Posted by: Kim Noyes <kimnoyes@gmail.com>
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[californiadisasters] On Jan 1, none of CA in worst drought cat. (D4); this week 58% is in D4





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[californiadisasters] South Ops News & Notes Update (7/31/14-9:10AM)



Date

Time

News and Notes

07/31/2014

0910

The El Portal fire made a one-half to three-quarter mile run in the Crane Creek area.

Two small spots were detected in front of the head of the fire. Both spots have been

lined and controlled. Smoky conditions challenged air resources.

Smoke on the northwest side of the fire obscured viewing of the fire perimeter.

 

The Dark Hole fire had a wetting rain on it today.

Thunderstorms have increased the threat of lightning. Poor relative humidity

recovery above the thermal belt will lead to active fire behavior tonight.

 

The upper waterfall in Eaton Canyon will be closed to the public Friday to keep

 people from scrambling up nearly vertical rock walls to get to it, the U.S. Forest

Service announced today. "This health and safety closure of the area surrounding

the upper waterfall only applies to Forest Service lands," Nathan Judy of the U.S.

Forest Service. Anyone caught in the off-limits area, encompassing about 84 acres,

will be subject to fines up to $5,000 and/or six months in jail.

 

Yesterday, approximately 846 lightning strikes occurred from the Sierra Crest South

to slightly south of Bishop. No large fires were detected as a result. Some precip accompanied

Fire Fighters continue to monitor situation.  

07/31/2014

0850

French, CA-SNF-001619 Rock Creek Campground, Madera County

Location: Rock Creek Camp Ground- Madera County

FRA

7,024 acres, 10% Contained

Central Sierra (Cooper's) Type 2 IMT team in command

28 structures remain threatened.

Road closures remain in effect for the section of 4S81 between Redinger Overlook and Arch Rock.

 

El Portal Fire, CA-YNP-0083 Yosemite National Park, Mariposa Co.

Location: Near Highway 140 and community of El Portal,

FRA

CIIMT 5 (Joseph).

3,900 Acres, 34% contained.

Big Oak Flat Road was opened today.

Community of Foresta remains evacuated.

Fire behavior continues to be active burning in steep terrain with

potential for falling tree and sages which are threats to fire fighters.

Values at risk major high voltage electrical transmission lines remain threaten,

community of Foresta. Archeology and cultural sites T&E species habitat and watershed. 

 

Dark Hole Fire, CA-YNP-0057, Yosemite National Park, Mariposa Co.

Location Yosemite Creek south of Tioga Rd, 1.5 miles south of Yosemite Creek CG

FRA

CIIMT 5 (Joseph)

647 acres, 5% contained

Yosemite Creek campground remains closed.

Low to minimal fire activity with only isolated tree torching.

Thunderstorm threat had diminished.

Potential for isolated runs and single and small group torching in northerly

direction due to topographical alignment.

MIST tactics are being deployed as necessary.

Source: http://gacc.nifc.gov/oscc/predictive/intelligence/news_notes/news.php


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[Geology2] Earthquake Plot Thickens in Pacific Northwest





Earthquake Plot Thickens in Pacific Northwest




Posted: 30 Jul 2014 12:00 PM PDT

Summary: Nearly forgotten research from decades ago complicates the task of quantifying earthquake hazards in the Pacific Northwest, according to a new report from scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey, the University of Washington, and other universities

Contact Information:

Leslie  Gordon, USGS ( Phone: 650-329-4006 ); Hannah Hickey, UW ( Phone: 206-543-2580 );




SEATTLE, Wash. — Nearly forgotten research from decades ago complicates the task of quantifying earthquake hazards in the Pacific Northwest, according to a new report from scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey, the University of Washington, and other universities.

The report focuses on the Cascadia subduction zone—a giant active fault that slants eastward beneath the Pacific coast of southern British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, and northern California. Geologic studies in the past three decades have provided increasingly specific estimates of Cascadia earthquake sizes and repeat times. The estimates affect public safety through seismic provisions in building design and tsunami limits on evacuation maps.

The new report does not question whether the Cascadia subduction zone repeatedly produces enormous earthquakes. What the report asks instead is how much geologists can say, with confidence, about the history of those earthquake going back thousands of years. How big was each of the earthquakes? Did they occur twice as often along one part of the subduction zone as another? The report concludes that extracting such details from deep-sea sediments is more complicated than was previously thought.

The report reappraises sediment cores that were collected near the foot of the continental slope offshore Washington. A subset of cores from this area underpins influential estimates of Cascadia earthquake size and recurrence that were published in 2012. The new report points to confounding evidence from a much larger suite of cores that were collected and first analyzed by University of Washington and Oregon State University scientists in the late 1960s and early 1970s.

Those Nixon-era cores were the work of researchers unconcerned with earthquakes. Plate tectonics was then such a new idea that scientists were just beginning to recognize the Cascadia subduction zone as a tectonic plate boundary. The sediment cores were collected to learn about turbidites—beds of sand and mud laid down by bottom-hugging, sediment-driven currents that infrequently emerged from submarine canyons onto the deep ocean floor. Not until a 1990 report would turbidites be reinterpreted as clues to Cascadia earthquake history.

"Rethinking turbidite paleoseismology along the Cascadia subduction zone" is freely available online in Geology, a leading Earth-science journal. The authors are Brian Atwater (U.S. Geological Survey), Bobb Carson (Lehigh University), Gary Griggs (University of California Santa Cruz), and Paul Johnson and Marie Salmi (University of Washington).







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Posted by: Kim Noyes <kimnoyes@gmail.com>



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[californiadisasters] Red Flag Warnings - NorCal (7/31/14-AM)



WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST-  CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY-  SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT  SHASTA-MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY-  UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY-  SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-  WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST-  SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN  LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES-  511 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014    ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO  11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR  FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280...281...284...285...617...621...622...  623...624 AND 625...    * AFFECTED AREAS: FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280...281...284...285...    617...621...622...623...624 AND 625...    * THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON    AND EVENING...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.    * OUTFLOW WINDS...30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.    * IMPACTS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COMBINED WITH EXISTING VERY    DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN MANY FIRE STARTS IN A SHORT PERIOD    OF TIME. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE    THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FIRE SPREAD IS LIKELY IN AREAS THAT DO    NOT RECEIVE WETTING RAIN.    * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...    A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS  ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF  STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL  CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.    &&    $$    SK  VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
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Posted by: Kim Noyes <kimnoyes@gmail.com>


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[californiadisasters] North Ops News & Notes Update (7/31/14-7AM)



Date
Time
News and Notes
07/31/2014
0700
CA-MEU Lodge Fire: 83 acres, 23% contained. Fire is located in BLM Heritage Wilderness, 5 miles north of Branscomb. Planned actions include constructing handline, mop-up, patrol and protect wilderness and watershed.
07/31/2014
0700
CA-LMU 3-7 Day Fire: 300 acres, 0% containment. Rapid rate of spread. Long range spotting up to 1/4 mile. Erratic winds due to passing thunderstorms. Threat to the community of Day, CA and commercial timber lands.
07/31/2014
0700
CA-BTU Web Fire: 389 acres, 70% contained. Expected containment 08/01/2014.
07/31/2014
0700
CA-AEU Sand Fire: 4,240 acres, 95% contained. Transfer of command back to the local unit will occur at 1000 today. Expected containment 08/02/2014.
07/31/2014
0700
National Weather Service - Medford has issued a Red Flag Warning in effect from 1400 this afternoon through 2300 this evening for abundant lightning with dry fuels for fire weather zones 280...281...284...285...617...621...622...623...624 and 625. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/firewx/cafw/rfwwarningsbycwa.php?pil=XXXRFWMFR
Source: http://gacc.nifc.gov/oncc/predictive/intelligence/news_notes/index.htm


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Posted by: Kim Noyes <kimnoyes@gmail.com>


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[californiadisasters] Major California reservoirs below 50% capacity as drought wears on



Major California reservoirs below 50% capacity as drought wears on

By Veronica Rocha - Los Angeles Times
July 23, 2014

Most of California's major reservoirs are now less than half-full -- or at what officials call a "seriously low" level -- but that's still nowhere near the historic lows set in 1977, the state's driest year on record.

The latest report released Wednesday by the California Department of Water Resources shows 10 of the state's 12 major reservoirs below 50% of their total capacity, with some nearing just 20%.

"They are not historical levels, but they are seriously low," department spokesman Ted Thomas said.

But when all 12 of the major reservoirs are combined, the average is at 60%, Thomas said. That's puts the state in a far better position than it was 37 years ago, when a crippling drought brought the statewide reservoir average down to 41%.

As of Wednesday, the largest federal reservoir in California at Lake Shasta was only at 36% capacity, which is 4.5 million acre-feet of water, he added.

The Sierra snowpack -- which provides most of California's drinking water -- was at 32% of its average annual depth this winter. And some climatologists say there's a chance that the strong El Nino weather pattern that had been hoped for may not materialize.

Reservoir levels may continue to drop if the three-year drought persists, Thomas said.

"The more we use, the less there is," he said.

The lack of rain has already pushed nearly 80% of California into "extreme" and "exceptional" drought conditions, the highest categories of dryness, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor map.

Officials are trying to retain current reservoir levels by cutting back on water shipments to local agencies, Thomas said. That, in turn, has prompted agencies and property owners to tap underground aquifers, which have also taken a hit.

Meanwhile, agencies across the state have been pushing conservation measures, which have become increasingly mandatory. Last week, state officials approved a $500 fine for water wasters.

Gov. Jerry Brown on Monday signed a bill that prohibits homeowners associations from imposing fines on residents who stop watering their lawns in an effort to conserve water.

The law, however, does not apply to fines imposed by local governments, some of which have been issuing citations.

Source: http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-california-reservoirs-below-capacity-20140723-story.html


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[californiadisasters] Bay Area Winemakers Say Another Year Without Rain Would Be "Devastating"



Bay Area Winemakers Say Another Year Without Rain Would Be "Devastating"

By Joe Rosato Jr.


Thursday, Jul 31, 2014 • Updated at 5:50 AM PDT

Winemaker Dan Naumann paced along his vineyards in the Santa Cruz Mountains, ignoring the vast startling views of Silicon Valley below - eyes fixed on his grape leaves. He gingerly extended a branch of one vine, pointing out the crimson leaves.

"This is what drought will do to you," Naumann said brushing the leaves. "Eventually they'll crinkle up on you."

Like everyone in agriculture, Naumann is nervous. Another winter with little rain has taken its toll on those who depend on nature's irrigation. As a "dry farmer" in unincorporated Cupertino, Naumann's irrigation is supplied 100 percent by Mother Nature.

"The most important thing we need is the soothing sound of raindrops during the winter," he said.

Like many Bay Area winemakers, Naumann expects to make it through this year with a decent harvest and quality wines. Next year, he's not so sure. While this year has been a tough one for agriculture, another year without rain could be devastating.

"We would drop one third of the fruit," Naumann said. "That's what we're anticipating next year if we get minimal amount of rain."

Naumann expected the rest of the Bay Area wine industry to make similar cuts to its fruit crops if it doesn't get the rain it needs. He said that could drive prices up 20 to 30 percent.

Just past downtown Livermore, where browning lawns are now more common than green ones, winemaker Jim McGrail surveyed his sprawling vines with the look of a man before a firing squad.

"If you don't get water," McGrail said, "these grapes die, the fruit dies, we as a community die."

McGrail only lays only some of the blame with nature, the rest he's reserved for state leaders who he said need to come up with a better system for storing rain during wet years.

"We put people on the moon," he said. "We do heart transplants and there's absolutely no reason we don't have water."

Naumann produces about 700 cases of merlot and cabernet sauvignon a year - and considers himself a boutique winemaker. But from his hilltop perch overlooking the valley, Naumann strangely seemed to be looking up.

"We'll make it through," he said. "Eventually Mother Nature will get us our rain back."

Source: www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/Wary-Bay-Area-Winemakers-Eye-Next-Year-269295241.html



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Posted by: Kim Noyes <kimnoyes@gmail.com>


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[californiadisasters] "Exceptional" Drought Expands to More Than Half of California



The most significant expansion of exceptional drought occurred in the northern part of the state

By Jonathan Lloyd

Thursday, Jul 31, 2014 • Updated at 7:09 AM PDT

Exceptional drought conditions expanded this week to include more than half of California, marking a significant increase over just one week for a state in the middle of a third-consecutive dry year.

"Exceptional" drought conditions expanded to more than 58 percent of California, a 22-percent increase over last week's U.S. Drought Monitor report. The weekly report categorizes drought severity into abnormally Dry (D0), Moderate (D1), Severe (D2), Extreme (D3) and Exceptional (D4).

At the start of the year, no part of the state was under the Exceptional category. But that figure increased steadily after the state completed its warmest and third-driest winter on record.

SoCal Water Waste

PHOTOS SoCal Water Waste

Exceptional drought spread significantly in the northern part of the state over the past week. Previously, the most severe conditions were confined to the a large swath of the Central Coast and Central Valley.

"Drought indicators point to the fact that conditions are not appreciably better in northern California than in central and southern sections of the state," according to the U.S. Drought Monitor report. "In addition, mounting evidence from reservoir levels, river gauges, ground water observations, and socio-economic impacts warrant a further expansion of exceptional drought (D4) into northern California."

 

Drought Timeline

Storage in California's 154 intrastate reservoirs -- those that are entirely within the state -- was at 60 percent of the historical average at the end of June. The record low is 41 percent of average, which occurred in June 1977.

The disappointing report comes just two days after new regulations, including a $500-per-day fine, went into effect for residents who waste water. The state's water resources agency approved the rules earlier this month, making it illegal for people to hose down driveways and sidewalks, waste water on their lawns or wash vehicles using a hose without a shut-off nozzle.

Gov. Jerry Brown, who declared a statewide drought emergency earlier this year, has asked Californians to reduce water use by 20 percent.  

Source: http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/California-Drought-Water-Supply-269378311.html?_osource=Newltr_Station_Hdlines_LA


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Posted by: Kim Noyes <kimnoyes@gmail.com>


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[californiadisasters] Teen Girl to Face Charges in Cocos Fire REDUX



The Cocos Fire in San Marcos was one of nine fires that burned 9,000 acres in San Diego County on the same day


Wednesday, Jul 30, 2014 • Updated at 8:41 PM PDT

A teenage girl accused of starting the devastating Cocos Fire faces multiple charges including four felonies and will undergo a mental evaluation.

The juvenile faces four felony charges and one misdemeanor in connection with the wildfire that destroyed close to 40 homes in San Marcos on May 14.

The charges include two counts of arson of an inhabited structure or property in which multiple structures were burned and two counts of arson of a structure or forest land in a reckless manner.

She also faces a misdemeanor of unlawfully allowing a fire to escape from one's control.

Superior Court Judge Aaron Katz delayed her arraignment until the minor undergoes an exam for mental competency at the request of her attorney.

The teenager wore her long, blonde hair down when she appeared Wednesday in San Diego County Juvenile Court.

She said only "Good morning" and looked at Judge Katz almost the entire time, according to pool reporters in the hearing.

At one point, she looked back at her parents with what was described as a blank stare.

"The charges are very serious charges," said Deputy District Attorney Shawnalyse Ochoa. "The minor is currently at home with her parents."

Judge Katz ruled the juvenile could be identified by first name only. He also ruled that the teen could not leave her home without her parents and must adhere to a 6 p.m. to 6 a.m. curfew.

The fire that sparked near Village Drive and Twin Oaks Road forced the evacuation of Cal State San Marcos and hundreds of other homes.

More than 20,000 acres were burned costing the City of San Marcos approximately $10.4 million in damage and firefighting costs.

The next hearing in Juvenile Court is scheduled for August 20.

NBC 7 is not showing images of the juvenile outside Wednesday's court hearing because it is our policy not to identify minors involved in a crime.


San Marcos resident Loretta Wasson has known the family involved for as long as she's lived in the community – 17 years.

"To actually say she did it on purpose… it just doesn't seem possible," Wasson said.

She recalled the day that she first saw smoke near her home, in an area she described as a gully between homes.

"All I saw was smoke," she said.

"That's when I saw the firefighters. One of the neighbors was out there with water trying to put it out."

Louie Ramirez recalls how he first spotted the smoke near his home while he was putting away dishes in his kitchen.

"I saw that tall pine in between those two yards on fire," he said describing how he went outside his home, using a cane, to alert his neighbors.

"And then somehow it jumped way up the hill," he said. "And there it went."

Ramirez said he remembers seeing young girls in the area when the fire first started, a fact that he told firefighters that day.

"I saw them running around like their tails were cut off," he said of the girls.

However, he was surprised to learn a teenage girl may soon be charged with arson in connection with the devastating San Marcos Fire.

On NBC 7's Facebook page, many are having a heated debate on whether the teenager should be tried in Juvenile Court or be tried as an adult.

Christyne Allyce Wallis of Oceanside posted, "She destroyed property, cancelled school, graduation and caused businesses to miss out on thousands of dollars in revenue. Not to mention to actual cost of putting the fires out. She deserves to be tried as an adult and her parents need to be held somewhat responsible."

However, there were other followers who said the teenager belongs in Juvenile Court.

"No child should be tried as an adult. Children are children and how do u decided who was adult enough to make a stupid decision," Ginger Bryce posted.

Source: www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/Teen-Girl-Faces-Charges-in-Cocos-Fire-San-Marcos-San-Diego--269234631.html



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