One guy cut his Mexican Rivera Honeymoon cruise short by several days to come back to the City for my last Snowmegeddon experience in 2002.
I met him several times at fire department functions as he was also a big fire buff he was a total Nerd Geek Bill Nye the Science guy right to a bow tie on air. Great guy to BS with over a beer too.
Louis N. Molino, Sr. CET
FF/NREMT/FSI/EMSI
Training Program Manager
Fire & Safety Specialists, Inc.
Typed by my fingers on my iPhone.
Please excuse any typos.
(979) 412-0890 (Cell)
(979) 690-7559 (Office)
(979) 690-7562 (Office Fax)
LNMolino@aol.com
Lou@fireworld.com
On Feb 26, 2011, at 16:30, newnethboy <kef413@gmail.com> wrote:
> Pardon, Lin, but I don't understand what you're disagreeing with.
>
> You are clearly agreeing with Kim's original remarks about how forecasting
> is different/difficult here. But you seem to be focusing on the forecasters
> and how they do their jobs, whereas my comments concerned the TV people (the
> "bimbage").
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Lin Kerns" <linkerns@gmail.com>
> To: <californiadisasters@yahoogroups.com>
> Sent: Saturday, February 26, 2011 10:31 AM
> Subject: Re: [californiadisasters] Re: Admin Read: Stop Shooting the
> Messenger
>
>
> Disagree on the weather folks in the east. After living most of my life in
> the midwest/south and then spending 5 years in SoCal, my weather geekiness
> zoned in on one very differing factor in weather prediction. That factor was
> mentioned briefly by Kim in his initial email on the subject--that weather
> systems entering the coastal ranges are very hard to predict, thanks to the
> topography. Storm systems are like fires in that no two are alike; and add
> into the mix the terrain, which is like no other part of the US and you've
> got a squirming tiger that appears to have a mind of its own. Not only do
> you have orographic lifting, which is like a rebound effect with the
> precipitation, but you have a system interacting with the jetstream and any
> pressure systems in the area that cannot discern the gentle rise of land.
>
> Once that system crosses the Rockies, the weather becomes easier to predict
> based upon any number of interactions that occur. For example, a system
> moves into the midwest and encounters Gulf moisture, but even the added mass
> of contributing factors does not hinder good forecasting. Our weather
> centers have become very efficient over the years, thanks to technology and
> those predictable, well understood interactions that occur and have occurred
> for hundreds of years. Weather prediction in the rest of the country is
> almost mathematical. I would say we are at the 80% point on accuracy, which
> is far better than what it was when I was a kid.
>
> When I first moved to CA, I was hard on the forecasters, too, but once I
> understood the random mix of elements involved, I became more appreciative.
> Give 'em a break--just ignore the brash tv front people who bounce across
> the screen, all Hollywood, and remember the real work of those hard working
> meteorologists behind the scenes.
>
> Lin
>
> On Sat, Feb 26, 2011 at 3:13 AM, newnethboy <kef413@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>>
>>
>> Two reactions:
>>
>> 1. I know from my (not extremely current) exposure that the TV weather
>> people in the East are not fundamentally different, but even so, here in
>> CA,
>> the weather is such, and the people are such, that the levels of hype here
>> are much greater than elsewhere. I mean, seriously, if we have a half-inch
>> of rain, all the TV stations have "Live Storm Watch" coverage at least on
>> par with the coverage your lot give to a true blizzard.
>>
>> If we get snow into the populated areas Saturday, I can pretty much
>> guarantee we'll have live continuing, pre-emptive news coverage. (But of
>> course, that hasn't happened since 1949, so it really would be news.)
>>
>> 2. NWS does, in fact, provide "spot forecasts" when/where needed, e.g. for
>> commanders of major fires. (I don't know the circumstances under which
> that
>> sort of service can be obtained.)
>>
>> Via the Web, I can get a "pinpoint forecast" which is allegedly for about
> a
>> one-mile square around the coordinates I enter. (The actual present
>> readings, though, are from about 15 miles away in my case.)
>>
>>
>> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: "Daithi" <dboconnor1@earthlink.net>
>> To: <californiadisasters@yahoogroups.com>
>> Sent: Friday, February 25, 2011 10:08 PM
>> Subject: [californiadisasters] Re: Admin Read: Stop Shooting the Messenger
>>
>> Kim:
>>
>> I will fully agree about not shooting the messenger. NWS does the best
> they
>> can with the available data and usually their best is very good but
> weather
>> is still not an exact science.
>>
>> TV weather people sometimes do seem to get a bit overexcited about a storm
>> as a big story.
>>
>> As to the private weather services I was a EMA director for 27 years and
> my
>> city subscribed to a private weather service. What was the benefit to us?
>> NWS provides forecast for larger general areas so has larger ranges for
>> arrival times of the storm and precipitation e.g. "The storm will reach
>> eastern Massachusetts between 4pm and 10pm and bring 6 to 12 inches of new
>> snow"
>>
>> Government agencies may have DPW workers who work 7 to 3 every day. We
> need
>> to know whether to send people home and have them come back at 10 or keep
>> them on duty paying overtime the whole time. If you send them home they
>> might not get back through the snow. Keep 200 truck drivers on overtime
>> with no snow and you have spent a lot of money and you don't need them
>> until
>> an hour before the storm to start your salt laydown. The private services
>> can localize more and provide narrower windows for storm start, better
>> estimates of accumulation and precipitation rate. I know my DPW people
>> thought the private service was money well spent to save the city money.
>>
>> Funny story about forecast errors. Several years ago I was at a NWS
>> training session for EMA directors from coastal Massachusetts. A big
>> t-storm arrived just before the start time and then the head warning
>> meteorologist for the region arrived soaked to the skin, no rainjacket, no
>> umbrella. He arrived laughing about himself getting caught in the rain and
>> made the point about not being perfect.
>>
>> --- In californiadisasters@yahoogroups.com, Kim Noyes <kimnoyes@...>
>> wrote:
>>>
>>> Achtung Gruppe!
>>>
>>> This has been on my mind for awhile and I have been waiting for the
> right
>>> time to speak and the right words to share.
>>>
>>> There has been a lot of talk here on this list for some time about SoCal
>>> weather forecasts that don't pan out and disparaging remarks about the
>>> performance of the forecasters.
>>>
>>> The attitude seems to be that the forecasters are incompetent fools who
>>> failed at their otherwise easy jobs.
>>>
>>> These comments seem to be based upon the false assumption that weather
>>> forecasting is easy and is an exact science if in the hands of competent
>>> forecasters.
>>>
>>> This could not be further from the truth.
>>>
>>> Weather forecasting will always be suffused with a significant degree of
>>> uncertainty.
>>>
>>> More so in a region bordered by ocean to the west from whence the
> weather
>>> comes and upon which there are few weather reporting stations which are
>>> essential to accurate weather forecasts.
>>>
>>> In fact, west of our coastline the only weather reporting stations are
> on
>>> buoys and weather reports from ships.
>>>
>>> Our weather forecasters are for the most part intelligent and
>> well-educated
>>> people doing the very best they can with what they have to work.
>>>
>>> Remember, too, that they have to hedge their bets and error on the side
>> of
>>> caution and if in doubt over-forecast as opposed to under-forecast.
>>>
>>> Nobody gets hurt from being overly alarmed and overly cautious about the
>>> weather but they certainly can be harmed from being inadequately warned
>> and
>>> under-prepared.
>>>
>>> It is a fact of nature that the transverse ranges of Southern California
>> are
>>> not only a geographical boundary but seem to function as a sort of
>>> meteorological boundary as well.
>>>
>>> Weak to marginal storms coming from the north seem to not hold their own
>>> south of this east-west trend of mountains which are the metaphoric
>>> "crumpled up fender" of the Pacific Plate colliding with the North
>> American
>>> Plate at the Big Bend in the San Andreas Fault Zone.
>>>
>>> Only the more vigorous storms coming from the north or storms coming
> more
>>> from the west or southwest (in other words, subtropical moisture) seem
> to
>>> make it to Southern California to drop significant rain.
>>>
>>> While it is true that not a few LA TV market news outlets employ
>> "bimbage"
>>> to read the weather as "eye candy" to attract the age 18-36 male
>>> demographic, even these silicone-implanted talking heads are reading
>>> forecasts created elsewhere by professional weather-forecasting agencies
>>> staffed by real weather forecasters.
>>>
>>> The one fault with the current system that I find is that often these
>>> private weather agencies such as The Weather Channel, in contrast to
>> NOAA's
>>> National Weather Service, are based outside the local area and lack a
>> long
>>> experience with the nuances and complexities of our local weather.
>>>
>>> I would trust a forecast by NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard way more than
> anything
>>> from The Weather Channel or any news outlet employing a private weather
>>> forecasting agency not based in California to generate their TV weather
>>> forecast.
>>>
>>> I feel we've belabored the issue of weather forecasts that don't pan out
>> and
>>> how much the local weather forecasters suck to the point of beating a
>> dead
>>> horse so let's cool it, gang.
>>>
>>> Acknowledging on the DISCUSSION list something to the effect that "thank
>> god
>>> that mega-storm didn't pan out or bad things would have happened" is
> fine
>>> but let's stop cheap-shoting our local weather forecasters.
>>>
>>> We certainly don't pick on Cal-Tech for not warning us every time there
>> is
>> a
>>> damaging Southern California earthquake not preceded by a Level A alert.
>>>
>>> Kim Patrick Noyes
>>> List-Oberfurher
>>>
>>> --
>>> Check out http://groups.yahoo.com/group/californiadisasters/
>>> Read our blog at http://eclecticarcania.blogspot.com/
>>> Visit me on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/derkimster
>>> Visit my Myspace at http://www.myspace.com/kimusinteruptus
>>> We have an Ebay store at http://stores.ebay.com/K-K-Earthwerks
>>>
>>
>>
>>
>
>
>
> --
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>
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>
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