Saturday, February 26, 2011

Re: [californiadisasters] Re: Admin Read: Stop Shooting the Messenger

We have some stations which have some actual meteorologists, but we have at
least as many "entertainers".

Meanwhile, I think we can and should differentiate between "forecasters" and
"TV people", even when some are both.

----- Original Message -----
From: "Lin Kerns" <linkerns@gmail.com>
To: <californiadisasters@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Saturday, February 26, 2011 8:15 PM
Subject: Re: [californiadisasters] Re: Admin Read: Stop Shooting the
Messenger


> Ah! The term, ""TV weather people" was somewhat amorphous, as we have
actual
> meteorologists doing our forecasts here, like Louis mentioned; "bimbage"
> would've been a tad more precise. :-)
>
> Lin
>
> On Sat, Feb 26, 2011 at 4:30 PM, newnethboy <kef413@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> > Pardon, Lin, but I don't understand what you're disagreeing with.
> >
> > You are clearly agreeing with Kim's original remarks about how
forecasting
> > is different/difficult here. But you seem to be focusing on the
forecasters
> > and how they do their jobs, whereas my comments concerned the TV people
> > (the
> > "bimbage").
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Lin Kerns" <linkerns@gmail.com>
> > To: <californiadisasters@yahoogroups.com>
> > Sent: Saturday, February 26, 2011 10:31 AM
> > Subject: Re: [californiadisasters] Re: Admin Read: Stop Shooting the
> > Messenger
> >
> >
> > Disagree on the weather folks in the east. After living most of my life
in
> > the midwest/south and then spending 5 years in SoCal, my weather
geekiness
> > zoned in on one very differing factor in weather prediction. That factor
> > was
> > mentioned briefly by Kim in his initial email on the subject--that
weather
> > systems entering the coastal ranges are very hard to predict, thanks to
the
> > topography. Storm systems are like fires in that no two are alike; and
add
> > into the mix the terrain, which is like no other part of the US and
you've
> > got a squirming tiger that appears to have a mind of its own. Not only
do
> > you have orographic lifting, which is like a rebound effect with the
> > precipitation, but you have a system interacting with the jetstream and
any
> > pressure systems in the area that cannot discern the gentle rise of
land.
> >
> > Once that system crosses the Rockies, the weather becomes easier to
predict
> > based upon any number of interactions that occur. For example, a system
> > moves into the midwest and encounters Gulf moisture, but even the added
> > mass
> > of contributing factors does not hinder good forecasting. Our weather
> > centers have become very efficient over the years, thanks to technology
and
> > those predictable, well understood interactions that occur and have
> > occurred
> > for hundreds of years. Weather prediction in the rest of the country is
> > almost mathematical. I would say we are at the 80% point on accuracy,
which
> > is far better than what it was when I was a kid.
> >
> > When I first moved to CA, I was hard on the forecasters, too, but once I
> > understood the random mix of elements involved, I became more
appreciative.
> > Give 'em a break--just ignore the brash tv front people who bounce
across
> > the screen, all Hollywood, and remember the real work of those hard
working
> > meteorologists behind the scenes.
> >
> > Lin
> >
> > On Sat, Feb 26, 2011 at 3:13 AM, newnethboy <kef413@gmail.com> wrote:
> >
> > >
> > >
> > > Two reactions:
> > >
> > > 1. I know from my (not extremely current) exposure that the TV weather
> > > people in the East are not fundamentally different, but even so, here
in
> > > CA,
> > > the weather is such, and the people are such, that the levels of hype
> > here
> > > are much greater than elsewhere. I mean, seriously, if we have a
> > half-inch
> > > of rain, all the TV stations have "Live Storm Watch" coverage at least
on
> > > par with the coverage your lot give to a true blizzard.
> > >
> > > If we get snow into the populated areas Saturday, I can pretty much
> > > guarantee we'll have live continuing, pre-emptive news coverage. (But
of
> > > course, that hasn't happened since 1949, so it really would be news.)
> > >
> > > 2. NWS does, in fact, provide "spot forecasts" when/where needed, e.g.
> > for
> > > commanders of major fires. (I don't know the circumstances under which
> > that
> > > sort of service can be obtained.)
> > >
> > > Via the Web, I can get a "pinpoint forecast" which is allegedly for
about
> > a
> > > one-mile square around the coordinates I enter. (The actual present
> > > readings, though, are from about 15 miles away in my case.)
> > >
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Daithi" <dboconnor1@earthlink.net>
> > > To: <californiadisasters@yahoogroups.com>
> > > Sent: Friday, February 25, 2011 10:08 PM
> > > Subject: [californiadisasters] Re: Admin Read: Stop Shooting the
> > Messenger
> > >
> > > Kim:
> > >
> > > I will fully agree about not shooting the messenger. NWS does the best
> > they
> > > can with the available data and usually their best is very good but
> > weather
> > > is still not an exact science.
> > >
> > > TV weather people sometimes do seem to get a bit overexcited about a
> > storm
> > > as a big story.
> > >
> > > As to the private weather services I was a EMA director for 27 years
and
> > my
> > > city subscribed to a private weather service. What was the benefit to
us?
> > > NWS provides forecast for larger general areas so has larger ranges
for
> > > arrival times of the storm and precipitation e.g. "The storm will
reach
> > > eastern Massachusetts between 4pm and 10pm and bring 6 to 12 inches of
> > new
> > > snow"
> > >
> > > Government agencies may have DPW workers who work 7 to 3 every day. We
> > need
> > > to know whether to send people home and have them come back at 10 or
keep
> > > them on duty paying overtime the whole time. If you send them home
they
> > > might not get back through the snow. Keep 200 truck drivers on
overtime
> > > with no snow and you have spent a lot of money and you don't need them
> > > until
> > > an hour before the storm to start your salt laydown. The private
services
> > > can localize more and provide narrower windows for storm start, better
> > > estimates of accumulation and precipitation rate. I know my DPW people
> > > thought the private service was money well spent to save the city
money.
> > >
> > > Funny story about forecast errors. Several years ago I was at a NWS
> > > training session for EMA directors from coastal Massachusetts. A big
> > > t-storm arrived just before the start time and then the head warning
> > > meteorologist for the region arrived soaked to the skin, no
rainjacket,
> > no
> > > umbrella. He arrived laughing about himself getting caught in the rain
> > and
> > > made the point about not being perfect.
> > >
> > > --- In californiadisasters@yahoogroups.com, Kim Noyes <kimnoyes@...>
> > > wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Achtung Gruppe!
> > > >
> > > > This has been on my mind for awhile and I have been waiting for the
> > right
> > > > time to speak and the right words to share.
> > > >
> > > > There has been a lot of talk here on this list for some time about
> > SoCal
> > > > weather forecasts that don't pan out and disparaging remarks about
the
> > > > performance of the forecasters.
> > > >
> > > > The attitude seems to be that the forecasters are incompetent fools
who
> > > > failed at their otherwise easy jobs.
> > > >
> > > > These comments seem to be based upon the false assumption that
weather
> > > > forecasting is easy and is an exact science if in the hands of
> > competent
> > > > forecasters.
> > > >
> > > > This could not be further from the truth.
> > > >
> > > > Weather forecasting will always be suffused with a significant
degree
> > of
> > > > uncertainty.
> > > >
> > > > More so in a region bordered by ocean to the west from whence the
> > weather
> > > > comes and upon which there are few weather reporting stations which
are
> > > > essential to accurate weather forecasts.
> > > >
> > > > In fact, west of our coastline the only weather reporting stations
are
> > on
> > > > buoys and weather reports from ships.
> > > >
> > > > Our weather forecasters are for the most part intelligent and
> > > well-educated
> > > > people doing the very best they can with what they have to work.
> > > >
> > > > Remember, too, that they have to hedge their bets and error on the
side
> > > of
> > > > caution and if in doubt over-forecast as opposed to under-forecast.
> > > >
> > > > Nobody gets hurt from being overly alarmed and overly cautious about
> > the
> > > > weather but they certainly can be harmed from being inadequately
warned
> > > and
> > > > under-prepared.
> > > >
> > > > It is a fact of nature that the transverse ranges of Southern
> > California
> > > are
> > > > not only a geographical boundary but seem to function as a sort of
> > > > meteorological boundary as well.
> > > >
> > > > Weak to marginal storms coming from the north seem to not hold their
> > own
> > > > south of this east-west trend of mountains which are the metaphoric
> > > > "crumpled up fender" of the Pacific Plate colliding with the North
> > > American
> > > > Plate at the Big Bend in the San Andreas Fault Zone.
> > > >
> > > > Only the more vigorous storms coming from the north or storms coming
> > more
> > > > from the west or southwest (in other words, subtropical moisture)
seem
> > to
> > > > make it to Southern California to drop significant rain.
> > > >
> > > > While it is true that not a few LA TV market news outlets employ
> > > "bimbage"
> > > > to read the weather as "eye candy" to attract the age 18-36 male
> > > > demographic, even these silicone-implanted talking heads are reading
> > > > forecasts created elsewhere by professional weather-forecasting
> > agencies
> > > > staffed by real weather forecasters.
> > > >
> > > > The one fault with the current system that I find is that often
these
> > > > private weather agencies such as The Weather Channel, in contrast to
> > > NOAA's
> > > > National Weather Service, are based outside the local area and lack
a
> > > long
> > > > experience with the nuances and complexities of our local weather.
> > > >
> > > > I would trust a forecast by NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard way more than
> > anything
> > > > from The Weather Channel or any news outlet employing a private
weather
> > > > forecasting agency not based in California to generate their TV
weather
> > > > forecast.
> > > >
> > > > I feel we've belabored the issue of weather forecasts that don't pan
> > out
> > > and
> > > > how much the local weather forecasters suck to the point of beating
a
> > > dead
> > > > horse so let's cool it, gang.
> > > >
> > > > Acknowledging on the DISCUSSION list something to the effect that
> > "thank
> > > god
> > > > that mega-storm didn't pan out or bad things would have happened" is
> > fine
> > > > but let's stop cheap-shoting our local weather forecasters.
> > > >
> > > > We certainly don't pick on Cal-Tech for not warning us every time
there
> > > is
> > > a
> > > > damaging Southern California earthquake not preceded by a Level A
> > alert.
> > > >
> > > > Kim Patrick Noyes
> > > > List-Oberfurher
> > > >
> > > > --
> > > > Check out http://groups.yahoo.com/group/californiadisasters/
> > > > Read our blog at http://eclecticarcania.blogspot.com/
> > > > Visit me on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/derkimster
> > > > Visit my Myspace at http://www.myspace.com/kimusinteruptus
> > > > We have an Ebay store at http://stores.ebay.com/K-K-Earthwerks
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
> > --
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> >
> > Penguin News Today <http://penguinnewstoday.blogspot.com/>
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> > *The Gentoos are back! Come see them on live cam at:*
> > Gentoo Penguins of Gars O'Higgins Station,
> > Antarctica<http://wiinterrr.blogspot.com/>
> >
> >
> >
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> >
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> >
> >
>
>
> --
> Got Penguins?
>
> Penguin News Today <http://penguinnewstoday.blogspot.com/>
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> *The Gentoos are back! Come see them on live cam at:*
> Gentoo Penguins of Gars O'Higgins Station,
> Antarctica<http://wiinterrr.blogspot.com/>
>

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