O.C. wildfire season? Normal, for now
May 24th, 2012, 7:59 am
Wildfire season is starting off in the "normal" range for Southern California, fire forecasters say, though that could mean several large wildfires in the region through the summer and fall.
And by midsummer, wildfire potential should rise as weather conditions change.
"It's not going to be until, probably, we get into later in the summer, in July and August — that's when we'll start to see an above-normal probability of getting some big fires," said Tom Rolinski, a meteorologist with the U.S. Forest Service's Fire Predictive Services group in Riverside. "That doesn't mean we're going to have more big fires. We're just saying the potential is there."
Last month, fire risk was declared above normal in large sections of the western United States for June, July and August by the National Interagency Fire Center's Predictive Services branch.
A bit ahead of schedule, large fires have recently erupted in Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado.
Parts of central and Southern California also were placed in the "above normal" column for July and August. Reduced snowpack in the Sierra and expanding drought conditions were major factors.
A slow start to wildfire season in Orange County still could mean the eruption of smaller fires through late May, such as this 3 1/2-acre blaze in Tustin on May 12. Photo courtesy Orange County Fire Authority.
In coastal Southern California, however, we're off to a slower start, though we could catch up quickly.
"Usually around mid to late May, we start seeing fire activity ramping up — usually small fires; sometimes we get a bigger grass fire," Rolinski said.
Like much of the state's, Orange County's rainfall remains well below average,with 6.3 inches since July 1. That is nearly seven inches below normal.
But repeated bouts of light rain affected the growth of wild plants, said George Ewan, wildland fire defense planner for the Orange County Fire Authority.
"It was damp off and on," Ewan said, through much of the winter and early spring. "We were getting storms every other week. It wasn't a great amount, but enough to keep the soil moisture up and allow the plants to come out."
As a result, he said, "we had two growing seasons this year."
Now that is translating into fuel for wildfires as once-green shoots turn brown.
"Orange County is in the process of drying out very rapidly," he said. "I would say, with the patterns going right now, we'll see a normal season to possibly a little bit more active."
Bump that up to "above normal" for the Santa Ana Mountains and foothills, said Fire Authority Capt. Marc Stone, who is encouraging residents in fire-prone areas of the county to get ready.
"We need to let people know they are in an area that is susceptible to fires," he said. "They need to protect their homes."
Orange County firefighters are now training for the wildfire season ahead.
"This time of year, they're really going through all their stuff to make sure everything is good to go," he said. "Everyone's got their wildland equipment checked out; they're doing hose lays, practicing with rigs."
And airborne firefighters have a new tool, he said: night-vision goggles, which will also require some training and practice.
That should allow helicopter pilots to continue fighting fires at night, rather than having to give up and try to regain lost ground in the morning.
"The pilots will be able to see any wires, electrical lines, topography, the contours of hills," Stone said. "Best of all, they'll be able to see the hot part of the fire.
"To be going through canyons, dropping water from 300-foot elevation, banking left, banking right, right through flames and smoke. It's like military combat."
View list of Orange County's worst wildfires
Find tips to prepare for wildfire on O.C. Fire Authority's "Ready, Set, Go" web page.
Source: http://sciencedude.ocregister.com/2012/05/24/o-c-wildfire-season-normal-for-now/172113/
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