New Zealand: An earthquake hotspot
- New Zealand is a globally a very seismically active area; 15,000 quakes each year
- Seismologists had predicted only a one in twenty chance Tuesday's quake would be so destructive
- Christchurch's 6.3 magnitude quake was an aftershock of a larger earthquake in September
(CNN) -- Scientists in New Zealand said there had been less than a one in twenty chance of Tuesday's earthquake being so destructive.
The fatal 6.3 magnitude quake that has damaged much of Christchurch on New Zealand's South Island was actually an aftershock of the 7.1 magnitude earthquake that struck the same area in September last year.
Seismologists for GNS Science had calculated on Monday that there was only a 35% chance of a 5.0 magnitude aftershock hitting the region in the near future, but only a 4% chance of a 6.0 or above aftershock.
"It's part of a sequence, so not uncommon, but this was so large it will have aftershocks of its own," said Dr. Bill Fry of GNS Science.
Tuesday's quake caused widespread damage as the epicenter was only around 3 miles (5 kilometers) below the earth's surface.
"Anything less than 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) deep is really shallow," said Fry.
Fry and his colleagues had been monitoring the region since the September 4 earthquake. That quake struck before dawn and authorities said the deserted streets at that time likely kept injuries to a minimum.
Most earthquakes happen away from the Christchurch region, said Fry, but in a country that experiences around 15,000 earthquakes each year, it wasn't completely unexpected, he said.
The majority of those quakes are hardly felt and do not damage property. On average New Zealand only experiences a few magnitude 6 earthquakes each year. Prior to Tuesday's quake the most damaging to hit the country was in 1931 near Hawke's Bay on the North Island.
The country is on the south western edge of the Ring of Fire, the ring of volcanoes and earthquakes that ring the Pacific ocean, and straddles the Pacific and Indian-Australian tectonic plates. Movement of the plates causes earthquakes across the country and volcanic activity in the North Island.
Christchurch is New Zealand's second biggest city on the eastern side of the South Island. The population of around 390,000 and enjoys a mild climate and close proximity to beaches and mountains.
Aftershocks are expected to continue to hit the Christchurch region in the coming days and weeks. The usual pattern is for a large aftershock followed by others of diminishing magnitude, said Fry.
"The country is very seismically active. We probably won't see another (aftershock) this big, but there is still a statistical chance," Fry cautioned.
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Desperation around collapsed PGG building
Christchurch earthquake
Family members gathered outside the PGG building on Cambridge Tce in central Christchurch are trying to stay hopeful that loved ones trapped inside will make it out alive.
The top three floors of the four-storey building completely collapsed in today's shallow 6.3 earthquake.
There were varying reports as to just how many people were trapped, but those at the scene reported there could be dozens unaccounted for.
Rescuers were using sledge hammers to get into the building and pull people out, as power to the city has been turned off.
A group of five people who were working for Marsh insurance assessors were the first to be freed.
They were trapped together and said they kept morale up by talking to each other.
Press reporter Martin van Beynen said the mood was still hopeful among families gathered outside the building.
''The mood is hopeful but sombre. People are teary eyed and hugging each other.''
David Hume was waiting for news of his wife of two years, Kathryn. He had not had any contact from her since the earthquake.
The financial planner was on the first floor of the building, he was at home and saw the collapsed building on television.
''I drove to the edge of town and ran from there. It's unbelievable how a new building like that can collapse.''
Wally Tower's wife Gwynn also works on the first floor, he has had no communication from her at all.
His son rang him from Australia after seeing the building on television.
Another woman arrived at the scene crying, ''My baby's in there''.
One man, who declined to be named, said his fiancé was trapped inside. The couple were due to marry on Friday.
Scott Wishheart's partner Anna Harris was working on secondment for Perpetual Plus on the first floor. He had not received a text message from her but another person helping at the scene had told him that contact had been made with her.
The army have cordoned off the scene and rescuers have set up three entry points into the building.
Ross Blackler was on the ground floor about to walk upstairs when the building came down.
''I headed for the doorway and the door came down on top of me. I had no choice. I just stayed on the ground and covered my head.''
''I'm so happy to be alive.''
David Sandeman, 71, was one of the first five rescued.
The five were trapped together on the fourth floor.
''We were trapped under furniture, with probably 12 inches of space. We're just so grateful the guys got up there when the building was rocking and rolling and dug us out.''
''I hope someone will buy me a Lotto ticket.''
Jeff McLay, 50, said they all kept reassuring each other they would be OK as they waited to be rescued.
''I didn't think that would ever be me,'' he said. ''It was pretty awful.''
He said about 60 people worked in the building in total.
''It's not good at all,'' he said.
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Quake shakes 30m tonnes of ice off glacier
8:03 PM Tuesday Feb 22, 201The magnitude 6.3 earthquake that devastated Christchurch was strong enough to shake 30 million tonnes of ice loose from Tasman Glacier at Aoraki Mt Cook National Park.
Passengers of two explorer boats were hit with waves of up to 3.5 metres as the ice crashed into Terminal Lake under the Tasman Glacier at the mountain.
Aoraki Mount Cook Alpine Village tourism manager Denis Callesen said huge icebergs formed in the lake, which were then rocked by massive waves for 30 minutes.
The danger to passengers could have been worse if not for safety proceedures put in place when it was suspected the area was becoming unstable, he said.
"We have procedures to deal with this type of event and for some time have stayed 800 metres away from the Terminal Face as we suspected it was becoming unstable," he said.
It was the third biggest amount of ice to fall in the history of the Terminal Lake, which is now over six kilometres long and two kilomtres wide in places, said Mr Callesen.
He said today's aftershock was the first quake felt at the Aoraki Mt Cook since the major quake last September.
- NZ Herald Staff
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