Japan's New Quake Forecast: 320,000 Could Die in Worst Case

By Yoree Koh

: Agence France-Presse/Getty Images; Tosashimizu city, Kochi prefecture, located in Japan's southern island of Shikoku, would be affected if a magnitude 9.0 earthquake occurs in the Nankai trough, according to a government report released Aug. 29.

The Japanese government on Wednesday released a worst-case scenario for a massive earthquake off the country's Pacific Coast that would far surpass the impact of last year's devastating temblor.

As many as 320,000 people could be killed if a magnitude 9.0 earthquake occurs in the 460 miles of water that stretch along the lower half of the country's Pacific coastline, it said. Last year's 9.0 earthquake and tsunami in northeastern Japan claimed about 19,000 lives.

In its 195-page report, a government panel examined scenarios based on the season and time of day in which when an earthquake might strike. The most severe projection assumes the earthquake would occur on a winter night with winds of 8 meters per second.

In that case, about 82,000 deaths would be due to collapsing buildings, it said, while another 10,000 would be claimed by fires or falling debris. Around 70%, or about 230,000, would be lost to a tsunami projected to reach as tall as 34 meters (111 feet).

Forecasts issued nine years ago for an earthquake in the same region predicted 25,000 deaths and a tsunami of no higher than 20 meters (66 feet).

While the latest projections are chilling, the report does not give any details on the likelihood of such an outcome.

Indeed, the purpose of the report, like other projections issued since last year, is to assume a worst-case scenario to help municipalities with disaster preparedness.

The panel said that the death toll could be cut by 80% if residents evacuate within 10 minutes of the tsunami alert. Shock and a lack of urgency slowed evacuation procedures in the hour between the earthquake and tsunami last March.

In a reminder of last year's earthquake, residents in the tsunami-hit northeast were jolted awake early Thursday morning by a magnitude 5.6 quake.

The Japan Meteorological Agency said it was an aftershock of the historic temblor and that it will be on alert for further activity. No tsunami warning was issued.

According to JMA data, 809 aftershocks stronger than magnitude 5 have occurred since the earthquake last year. About 220 struck on March 11 of last year alone. Thursday morning's quake was the sixth to occur this month.