I like to know what it is suppose to do with AZ we already don't know what rain is here in Phoenix.Fire season not looking good.
To: californiadisasters@yahoogroups.com; DailyBrief@yahoogroups.com; allthingshistory@yahoogroups.com
From: kimnoyes@gmail.com
Date: Tue, 22 Apr 2014 12:45:09 -0700
Subject: [californiadisasters] Get Ready For One Of The Worst El Niños Ever
Apr. 22, 2014, 11:52 AM
With apologies to Game of Thrones fans, there's a new climate menace on the prowl: El Niño is coming.
Statistically, this time of year has the least predictability at any time all year. But peering below the ocean's surface, water temperatures are already off-the-charts-hot. If that warm water makes it to the surface, the planet could be in line for one of the most intense El Niños ever recorded.
That would be enough to shift weather patterns worldwide and make the next couple of years among the hottest we've ever known. Earlier this month I wrote that taking into account current forecasts, El Niño could be the biggest global weather story of 2014. The new data shows that forecast is still on track. And that means El Niño could officially begin in a matter of weeks.
Recently people have been tweeting me questions like: "Will El Niño destroy my family's avocado plantation in Sweden?" or "Will El Niño finally banish the Eye of Sauron from the drought-stricken Mordor formerly known as Sacramento?"
While the answer to both of those questions is a qualified no, there are some parts of the world that have a relatively predictable weather signal when El Niño rolls around.
Animation courtesy NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
There have been only a handful of El Niño events in the last few decades, and in many cases it's difficult to generalize based on such a small sample size. Only once in the last 30 years—1998 (see above animation)—were subsurface water temperatures as warm as they are now. Which makes forecasting even more difficult. But by averaging all the recent El Niño events together, we can take a guess at the general trends for what the next few months might bring. (Since all the websites offering El Niño impacts seem to be based on a Microsoft Encarta CD-ROM from the late 1990s, I figured we needed an update.) Let this be your warning: Not all of these predictions will come to pass. Some surely won't. Frankly, I'm overgeneralizing a lot of nuance here. The below should be read as a tilt of the odds, not a black-and-white forecast. But it's grounded in the past, and given the current state of the ocean and atmosphere, it offers a good idea of how planet Earth might deal in 2014–15.
Here it is, your guide to the world on El Niño.
David McNew/Getty Images
The San Gabriel Reservoir water level remains dramatically low near the end of the rainy season when the waters of the San Gabriel River would normally have restored water reserves on March 12, 2007 in the Angeles National Forest near Azusa, California.
Anchorage: A warm, wet winter along the southern Alaska coast and a warm, dry winter in the interior. The Iditarod could have another rough go. One study shows that summer 2015 could be a big one for wildfires. Seattle: A warm winter, and especially warm waters offshore, could be tough for the Pacific Northwest salmon. Past El Niños have induced dramatic declines in the population of salmon, which found themselves caught by surprise as they migrated back south to spawn.
Portland, Ore.: A warm and dry winter throughout the Columbia River basin. Oregon's in a drought, too. It isn't nearly as dependent on snowpack as California is, but river levels could drop and ski areas could have another rough go. Southern Oregon's Mount Ashland ;didn't even open at all this year, the first time in its five-decade history.
San Francisco: Depending on El Niño, rains could return to drought-stricken Northern California. Or maybe they won't. There's great news if you're a Bay Area fisherperson: Tropical game fish like mahi, swordfish, and blue marlin have been spotted this far north during past El Niños.
Monterey: Coastal California is among the most susceptible places to landslides in the country. Heavy rains, like the ones that helped contribute to the Oso, Wash., disaster, could strike near here this winter.
Los Angeles: Car-bound Angelinos have another threat to worry about: potholes. During the last major El Niño, in 1998, a parade of pavement-crumbling storms helped skyrocket reports of bad roads by 400 percent.
This farm, in California's Central Valley: In the midst of the state's worst drought in half a millennium, agriculture in California is at the end of its rope. That has some farmers hoping for El Niño, which has been known to bring heavy rains and snow. Still, the deficits racked up over the last few years are so huge, even a deluge may not end the drought.
Boise, Idaho: With the jet stream's energy often split between Alaska and Southern California in El Niño years, places in the middle like Idaho get the short end of the stick. Plan to ski elsewhere this coming winter.
Denver: Colorado Front Range snowstorms are significantly heavier during El Niño autumns and springs, though precipitation as a whole is roughly the same. A National Center for Atmospheric Research analysis shows a 20-inch snowstorm is roughly seven times more likely in an El Niño year than in a La Niña year. Neutral years—neither El Niño nor La Niña—are somewhere in between.
The Colorado River basin: Some good news! El Niño could help fill dwindling reservoirs and boost water supplies by bringing unseasonably heavy rains across the Southwest.
Texas: If this El Niño develops into a strong one, the Texas drought—nearly as severe as the one in California—could be a major beneficiary. Looking at past El Niños, a cool, wet winter in Texas is among the clearest signal in the United States, rainfallwise.
Kansas City, Mo.: If you're like me, you're already planning your World Series parties. If you're a baseball player based in the Midwest, there's a bit of a greater chance for rain during El Niño Octobers, so plan for rain delays accordingly. Teams with a deep bullpen, like, oh, this one, should fare better in the playoffs.
Chicago: This winter, folks in Chicago—near the epicenter of this winter's polar vortex-fueled cold air outbreaks—would have probably sold their souls for a hint of spring. El Niño could be the savior they've been seeking: According to legendary weatherman Tom Skilling, Chicagoland winters are predictably mild when El Niño's in force. That should reduce heating bills and incidence of snowball violence.
Green Bay, Wis.: The Frozen Tundra won't be quite as frozen this season. After one of the coldest games in NFL history this January, Packers fans can look forward to warmer temperatures in the season to come.
The Corn Belt: In sharp contrast to other major agricultural regions (India, Southeast Asia, Australia, Central America, Brazil), the U.S. Corn Belt could be in for a relatively mild summer. Near-average temperatures and slightly above-average rainfall could provide ideal growing conditions this summer, with farmers taking advantage of price spikes caused by shortages in other parts of the world. Midwest farmers could pay for it during summer 2015, though, if global temperature spikes as predicted. Poor corn harvests have been documented in Iowa in the year following El Niño.
New Orleans: One well-documented result of El Niño is fewer Atlantic hurricanes, and that's the forecast for this season, too. The United States is in the midst of a 3,000-plus day drought of major hurricane landfalls, the longest stretch on record since 1900, according to the Washington Post. A major hurricane is one with sustained winds greater than 111 mph. The last one to reach shore at that intensity was Hurricane Wilma on Oct. 24, 2005. There's a good chance that streak will live on in 2014. That's great news for the Gulf Coast.
Miami: Though the forecast is for a below-average hurricane season, seasonal predictions have been pretty much a crapshoot over the last decade. In an example meteorologists love to cite, 1992 was an El Niño year with below-average hurricane activity. It was also the year Hurricane Andrew devastated South Florida. Oh, by the way, El Niño also doubles the chances for winter tornadoes across Florida.
Atlanta: Across the Southeast United States, El Niño increases the risk of wintertime river flooding. On the bright side, it should reduce the chances of a return ofapocalyptic ice storms like the region faced this winter.
Washington, D.C.: How might El Niño affect the midterm elections? Crazy weather worldwide could keep the topic of climate change in the news, along with a planned $100 million climate-focused ad buy. With key Senate races in the fossil fuel-rich states of Alaska, Kentucky, and Louisiana, could climate be a wedge issue this year?
New York City: For the mid-Atlantic up to about New York City, weak or moderate El Niños typically bring snowier-than-average winters, due to the more energized southern branch of the jet stream. However, if this El Niño is especially strong, the supply of cold air—and with it, snow—may get shut off.
Boston: New England winters are typically warmer with an El Niño. Though hurricanes and snowstorms are relatively rare during strong El Niño years, nor'easter windstorms are nearly three times more likely, an NOAA study shows.
Toronto: During the last El Niño in 2010, winter was effectively canceled across Canada. That year, warm and dry weather helped Toronto record the lowest snow total in its history, according to Environment Canada.
Yellowknife, Northwest Territories: Ice Road Truckers may need a new game plan. Warm weather in far north Canada caused huge problems during an El Niño-fueled 2010, cutting off many rural communities from their frozen supply routes.
<SNIP>
Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/el-nino-weather-2014-4
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Please join our Discussion Group at http://groups.yahoo.com/group/californiadisasters_discussion/ for topical but extended discussions started here or for less topical but nonetheless relevant messages.
To: californiadisasters@yahoogroups.com; DailyBrief@yahoogroups.com; allthingshistory@yahoogroups.com
From: kimnoyes@gmail.com
Date: Tue, 22 Apr 2014 12:45:09 -0700
Subject: [californiadisasters] Get Ready For One Of The Worst El Niños Ever
Get Ready For One Of The Worst El Niños Ever
Eric Holthaus, SlateApr. 22, 2014, 11:52 AM
With apologies to Game of Thrones fans, there's a new climate menace on the prowl: El Niño is coming.
New data released late last week added to the mounting evidence.
By Fall 2014: 75-80% chance we'll have El Niño. #IRIForecast #ENSO #climate #ElNino #ENSOQandA pic.twitter.com/yXmq2XTqgq
— francesco fiondella (@fiondella) April 17, 2014 To be declared an official El Niño, surface water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean must warm by half a degree Celsius averaged over three months and maintain that level for five consecutive three-month periods. That's an arbitrary definition, sure, but it gives us the ability to crunch the numbers on weather patterns that tend to associate with El Niños on a global scale.Statistically, this time of year has the least predictability at any time all year. But peering below the ocean's surface, water temperatures are already off-the-charts-hot. If that warm water makes it to the surface, the planet could be in line for one of the most intense El Niños ever recorded.
That would be enough to shift weather patterns worldwide and make the next couple of years among the hottest we've ever known. Earlier this month I wrote that taking into account current forecasts, El Niño could be the biggest global weather story of 2014. The new data shows that forecast is still on track. And that means El Niño could officially begin in a matter of weeks.
Recently people have been tweeting me questions like: "Will El Niño destroy my family's avocado plantation in Sweden?" or "Will El Niño finally banish the Eye of Sauron from the drought-stricken Mordor formerly known as Sacramento?"
While the answer to both of those questions is a qualified no, there are some parts of the world that have a relatively predictable weather signal when El Niño rolls around.
Animation courtesy NOAA Earth System Research LaboratoryHere it is, your guide to the world on El Niño.
North America
David McNew/Getty ImagesThe San Gabriel Reservoir water level remains dramatically low near the end of the rainy season when the waters of the San Gabriel River would normally have restored water reserves on March 12, 2007 in the Angeles National Forest near Azusa, California.
Portland, Ore.: A warm and dry winter throughout the Columbia River basin. Oregon's in a drought, too. It isn't nearly as dependent on snowpack as California is, but river levels could drop and ski areas could have another rough go. Southern Oregon's Mount Ashland ;didn't even open at all this year, the first time in its five-decade history.
San Francisco: Depending on El Niño, rains could return to drought-stricken Northern California. Or maybe they won't. There's great news if you're a Bay Area fisherperson: Tropical game fish like mahi, swordfish, and blue marlin have been spotted this far north during past El Niños.
Monterey: Coastal California is among the most susceptible places to landslides in the country. Heavy rains, like the ones that helped contribute to the Oso, Wash., disaster, could strike near here this winter.
Los Angeles: Car-bound Angelinos have another threat to worry about: potholes. During the last major El Niño, in 1998, a parade of pavement-crumbling storms helped skyrocket reports of bad roads by 400 percent.
This farm, in California's Central Valley: In the midst of the state's worst drought in half a millennium, agriculture in California is at the end of its rope. That has some farmers hoping for El Niño, which has been known to bring heavy rains and snow. Still, the deficits racked up over the last few years are so huge, even a deluge may not end the drought.
Boise, Idaho: With the jet stream's energy often split between Alaska and Southern California in El Niño years, places in the middle like Idaho get the short end of the stick. Plan to ski elsewhere this coming winter.
Denver: Colorado Front Range snowstorms are significantly heavier during El Niño autumns and springs, though precipitation as a whole is roughly the same. A National Center for Atmospheric Research analysis shows a 20-inch snowstorm is roughly seven times more likely in an El Niño year than in a La Niña year. Neutral years—neither El Niño nor La Niña—are somewhere in between.
The Colorado River basin: Some good news! El Niño could help fill dwindling reservoirs and boost water supplies by bringing unseasonably heavy rains across the Southwest.
Texas: If this El Niño develops into a strong one, the Texas drought—nearly as severe as the one in California—could be a major beneficiary. Looking at past El Niños, a cool, wet winter in Texas is among the clearest signal in the United States, rainfallwise.
Kansas City, Mo.: If you're like me, you're already planning your World Series parties. If you're a baseball player based in the Midwest, there's a bit of a greater chance for rain during El Niño Octobers, so plan for rain delays accordingly. Teams with a deep bullpen, like, oh, this one, should fare better in the playoffs.
Chicago: This winter, folks in Chicago—near the epicenter of this winter's polar vortex-fueled cold air outbreaks—would have probably sold their souls for a hint of spring. El Niño could be the savior they've been seeking: According to legendary weatherman Tom Skilling, Chicagoland winters are predictably mild when El Niño's in force. That should reduce heating bills and incidence of snowball violence.
Green Bay, Wis.: The Frozen Tundra won't be quite as frozen this season. After one of the coldest games in NFL history this January, Packers fans can look forward to warmer temperatures in the season to come.
The Corn Belt: In sharp contrast to other major agricultural regions (India, Southeast Asia, Australia, Central America, Brazil), the U.S. Corn Belt could be in for a relatively mild summer. Near-average temperatures and slightly above-average rainfall could provide ideal growing conditions this summer, with farmers taking advantage of price spikes caused by shortages in other parts of the world. Midwest farmers could pay for it during summer 2015, though, if global temperature spikes as predicted. Poor corn harvests have been documented in Iowa in the year following El Niño.
New Orleans: One well-documented result of El Niño is fewer Atlantic hurricanes, and that's the forecast for this season, too. The United States is in the midst of a 3,000-plus day drought of major hurricane landfalls, the longest stretch on record since 1900, according to the Washington Post. A major hurricane is one with sustained winds greater than 111 mph. The last one to reach shore at that intensity was Hurricane Wilma on Oct. 24, 2005. There's a good chance that streak will live on in 2014. That's great news for the Gulf Coast.
Miami: Though the forecast is for a below-average hurricane season, seasonal predictions have been pretty much a crapshoot over the last decade. In an example meteorologists love to cite, 1992 was an El Niño year with below-average hurricane activity. It was also the year Hurricane Andrew devastated South Florida. Oh, by the way, El Niño also doubles the chances for winter tornadoes across Florida.
Atlanta: Across the Southeast United States, El Niño increases the risk of wintertime river flooding. On the bright side, it should reduce the chances of a return ofapocalyptic ice storms like the region faced this winter.
Washington, D.C.: How might El Niño affect the midterm elections? Crazy weather worldwide could keep the topic of climate change in the news, along with a planned $100 million climate-focused ad buy. With key Senate races in the fossil fuel-rich states of Alaska, Kentucky, and Louisiana, could climate be a wedge issue this year?
New York City: For the mid-Atlantic up to about New York City, weak or moderate El Niños typically bring snowier-than-average winters, due to the more energized southern branch of the jet stream. However, if this El Niño is especially strong, the supply of cold air—and with it, snow—may get shut off.
Boston: New England winters are typically warmer with an El Niño. Though hurricanes and snowstorms are relatively rare during strong El Niño years, nor'easter windstorms are nearly three times more likely, an NOAA study shows.
Toronto: During the last El Niño in 2010, winter was effectively canceled across Canada. That year, warm and dry weather helped Toronto record the lowest snow total in its history, according to Environment Canada.
Yellowknife, Northwest Territories: Ice Road Truckers may need a new game plan. Warm weather in far north Canada caused huge problems during an El Niño-fueled 2010, cutting off many rural communities from their frozen supply routes.
<SNIP>
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Check out http://groups.yahoo.com/group/californiadisasters/
Read my blog at http://eclecticarcania.blogspot.com/
My Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/derkimster
Linkedin profile: http://www.linkedin.com/pub/kim-noyes/9/3a1/2b8
Follow me on Twitter @DisasterKim
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Be sure to check out our Links Section at http://groups.yahoo.com/group/californiadisasters/links
Please join our Discussion Group at http://groups.yahoo.com/group/californiadisasters_discussion/ for topical but extended discussions started here or for less topical but nonetheless relevant messages.
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