[californiadisasters] Chances of Prolonged La Niña More Than 50%

Weather expert sees lengthy water shortage

By Robert Krier

San Diego Union-Tribune

Wednesday, November 17, 2010 at 8:05 p.m.

Rain-robbing La Niña will not only visit this winter, but it may hang around like an unwanted house guest for another year — or longer. If it does, it could prolong water shortages for Southern Californians, many of whom are already saddled with restrictions on when and how much they can use their sprinklers, or wash their cars.

Klaus Wolter, a long-range forecaster who consults with the California Department of Water Resources to help set water-management strategies, said the current La Niña is one of, if not the strongest La Niña on record. The stronger the La Niña, the more likely it will last, he said.

"The odds are quite high that we won't see a short-lived La Niña," Wolter said in San Diego Wednesday. "The odds are higher than 50-50 (that it will continue).

"La Niña is fundamentally different (from El Niños). Events (of this size) have lasted two, even three years."

La Niñas are marked by extended periods of below-normal sea-surface temperatures in a large swath of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Those cool waters tend to change the path and intensity of winter storms. In a typical La Niña, the Pacific Northwest is wetter than normal, while Southern California stays dry.

Ironically, wet weather is forecast for the region this weekend. National Weather Service forecasters expect a half inch to an inch of rain near the coast by Monday. The rain should come in two pulses, the first Saturday morning or afternoon, the second Sunday afternoon or evening. Showers could continue through Monday morning. The mountains could get 2 to 2.5 inches of rain.

Wolter, who spoke at the Westin Hotel in the Gaslamp Quarter during a workshop on the winter outlook sponsored by the DWR, said the rain this weekend and the abnormally wet October in California and the Colorado River Basin, another major source of imported water for the region, will have little bearing on the coming months.

"As much as we rejoice with all this moisture, it doesn't mean much for the rest of the winter," said Wolter, who works for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Western Water Assessment Team and the University of Colorado. "The winter season is really what counts."

December, January and February are the key months in California, because 50 percent of the state's precipitation typically falls then. Wolter expects a dry winter in Southern California, with about even odds for a normal winter in the northern end of the state.

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View entire article here: http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2010/nov/17/chances-prolonged-la-nina-more-50/


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