Re: [californiadisasters] El Nino Diagnostic Discussion (June 2012)

All things being equal there would normally be a 33% chance of either El Nino, LA Nina, or No Nino so 50% is higher than baseline.

On Thu, Jun 7, 2012 at 12:35 PM, Rick Bates <HappyMoosePhoto@gmail.com> wrote:

 

When I was in Alaska I would routinely use NOAA weather radio for the forecast.  One pronouncement said: "The US Weather Service is predicting a 50% chance of above or below normal precipitation over the next year." 

 

I had to listen to it a few times to make sure it's what I really heard.  No it wasn't April, but it took a while to stop laughing. 

 

It's a null forecast, right/wrong no matter how you spin it.

 

Maybe it was just a slow 'news day' to them.  :oD

 

Rick

 

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From: Kim Noyes

Synopsis: There is a 50% chance that El Niño conditions will develop during the second half of 2012.

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