MOUNTAIN FIRE: Firefighters bracing for dangerous weather
| BY JOHN ASBURY AND BRIAN ROKOS | PE.COM | |
The Mountain Fire has been burning very actively since daybreak, and firefighters are bracing for unpredictable and potentially dangerous weather Friday, July 19.
"We have a very unstable atmosphere, and what that does, it allows the fire the ability to develop into its own thunderstorm," said fire behavior analyst Dennis Burns, who likened conditions to those that led to the deaths of 19 hotshot firefighters in Arizona last month.
Conditions "are a concern right now. A serious concern," said Burns, a captain with the Livermore-Pleasanton Fire Department who is advising the interagency task force fighting the Mountain Fire.
In the Arizona fire, erratic winds turned the flames on the crew members who were batting the fire with hand tools, Burns said.
Today's conditions at the Mountain Fire are making firefighters more vigilant, he said, noting that officials won't put crews in a place where the fire could outpace their ability to control it.
The fire was mapped early Friday mapped at 24,818 acres -- a growth of about 2,000 acres over the previous 24 hours -- and remains 15 percent contained. The northwest front remains about 2 1/2 miles from the town of Idyllwild, which has been evacuated since Wednesday night.
The northern head is burning in the San Jacinto Wilderness and is moving toward the Skunk Cabbage Meadow.
On the east side of the fire, the flames are about two miles south of Palm Springs. Forest Service officials said the fire has run out of fuel as it moved into the desert and the Agua Caliente Indian Reservation. The tribe said Thursday that about one-quarter of the fire — 6,000 acres — was on tribal land.
On the fire's south border, about 200 hotshots were working in the Morris Ranch area, where a ridge line above the Train's End community flared up briefly Friday morning, sending up a black chimney of smoke. The dozen homes at the end of Morris Ranch Road have been evacuated since Wednesday.
About 15 percent of the fire's footprint has been surrounded by containment lines. Those are on the west side where the fire broke out Monday.
WEATHER WORRIES
What worries Burns most is not the fire on the ground; it's what is thousands of feet in the air.
The smoke column is so high — reaching 25,000 to 30,000 feet — that the smoke has frozen at the top. What can happen next, Burns said, is that the ice and moisture can get so heavy that they fall and generate winds of 40-50 mph. Those winds could cause embers to blow up to a mile away.
"The fire could burn 1-2 mph, and that outpaces the firefighters' ability to actually control that fire," Burns said. "We won't put firefighters out in front of the fire where the potential for that exists."
Instead, crews will work on the sides of the fire so that if the winds increase dramatically, firefighters can make it to safety, Burns said.
"The 19 firefighters who died in Arizona were under vey similar conditions as we are today," Burns said. Among those firefighters were two Hemet natives, Chris MacKenzie and William Warneke.
Burns added that the tragedy at the Yarnell Hill Fire in Arizona, where erratic winds turned the flames on the crew members who were batting the fire with hand tools, is not changing how fire commanders in Idyllwild are operating.
"We always consider that potential," Burns said. "But it's in the back of our minds. It makes us a little more vigilant. We are crossing all of our T's and dotting all of our I's."
Burns has two adult daughters, and he likened this fire's behavior to that of a 14-year-old girl.
"It's an angry fire. It's throwing a tantrum," Burns said. "It's doing what it wants to do, and our actions are having a minimal effect on it. We're trying to at least calm it down a little bit right now by using aircraft, but where it's located, it's not safe to put firefighters out in front of it."
Firefighters around Idyllwild will be on watch through the weekend, as monsoonal conditions are in the forecast. Thunderstorms are not guaranteed to bring the relief of rain, but potentially just lightning and winds.
There is a 20 percent chance of rain Friday and a 30 percent chance Saturday through Monday, according to the National Weather Service.
INTERACTIVE MAP: Areas affected by Mountain Fire
FRIDAY'S FIREFIGHT
More than 3,300 firefighters are working on the Mountain Fire, along with19 helicopters and 10 fixed-wing aircraft including a DC-10 tanker and two C-130J cargo planes that have been specially outfitted to carry retardant.
Overnight Thursday into Friday, hand crews worked in temperatures below 50 degrees and higher humidity to cut new containment lines to head the fire away from Idyllwild, while a night-flying helicopter dropped water.
A bulldozer line has been cut through Hurkey Creek and several division squads of firefighters are nailing the western edge and battling back flames.
As the afternoon wears on, fire officials warn that the smoke column could aid in producing thunderstorms or strong down draft winds, causing flames to spread rapidly.
No additional structures have burned since Monday. The majority of the damage was in the Apple Canyon/Bonita Vista area. Those residents were allowed to return home Thursday night.
Highway 74 was reopened. And Highway 243, which had been under a soft closure since Wednesday night -- meaning people with proof of residency would be allowed up to retrieve belongings -- reopened between Banning and Pine Cove, but is now under a hard closure between the nature center and the junction with Highway 74.
The cost of fighting the Mountain Fire is now estimated at $8.6 million.
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