California is NOT prepared for the Big One: Experts say catastrophic fires and lack of water could 'cut lifelines' to megaquake survivors
- Report warns local officials as well as businesses need to 'face reality'
- Identifies several key areas that need to be addressed
- Aging infrastructure, water supplies and the risk of catastrophic fires
By Afp and Mark Prigg For Dailymail.com
Published: 11 July 2016
Beyond the sunshine, the palm trees and Hollywood, if there is one certainty in California, it's that a massive earthquake will strike at some point.
But when the Big One hits, a recent report says, the western state is ill-prepared and local officials as well as major businesses need to face that reality to 'prevent the inevitable disaster from becoming a catastrophe.'
Drafted by a group of business and policy leaders, the report identifies several key areas that need to be addressed before a quake as strong as a magnitude 8 happens, notably aging infrastructure, water supplies and the risk of catastrophic fires.
A major earthquake on the San Andreas, one of California's most dangerous faults, would cut most lifelines in and out of southern California, preventing critical aid from reaching some 20 million people and hampering recovery efforts, experts say.
THE SAN ANDREAS FAULT
The San Andreas system in Northern California consists of five major branches with an overall length of about 1,25O miles.
Experts say there is a 99 percent chance of a magnitude-6.7 earthquake or larger in the next 30 years in California because of the number of fault lines in the region.
The San Andreas Fault that forms the tectonic boundary between the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate is the biggest.
One of the biggest vulnerabilities, the report states, relates to the Cajon Pass, a narrow mountain pass where the mighty San Andreas Fault intersects with key lifelines, including freeways, railway lines, gas and petroleum pipelines as well as electric lines.
A major earthquake on the San Andreas, one of California's most dangerous faults, would cut most lifelines in and out of southern California, preventing critical aid from reaching some 20 million people and hampering recovery efforts, experts say.
It is commonly referred to as the 'Big One' a hypothetical earthquake of magnitude 8 or greater that is expected to happen along the San Andreas fault.
Such a quake is expected to produce devastation to human civilization within about 50-100 miles of the quake zone, especially in urban areas like Palm Springs, Los Angeles and San Francisco.
A major earthquake on the San Andreas, one of California's most dangerous faults, would cut most lifelines in and out of southern California, preventing critical aid from reaching some 20 million people and hampering recovery efforts, experts say. Here, a still from the film San Andreas shows a massive tsunami wave some believe could be triggered.
One of the biggest vulnerabilities, the report states, relates to the Cajon Pass (pictured), a narrow mountain pass where the mighty San Andreas Fault intersects with key lifelines, including freeways, railway lines, gas and petroleum pipelines as well as electric lines.
The quake would also rupture flammable pipelines, triggering explosions and fires that could burn out of control.
'Anything that comes into southern California has to cross the San Andreas Fault to get to us -- gas, electricity, water, freeways, railways,' said seismologist Lucy Jones, who acted as advisor for the Southern California Disaster Risk Reduction Initiative committee, which issued the report.
'Most of the water that we get has to cross the fault to reach us but when the earthquake happens, all of the aqueducts will be broken at the same time,' Jones, known as California's 'earthquake lady,' told AFP.
One of the biggest vulnerabilities, the report states, relates to the Cajon Pass, a narrow mountain pass where the mighty San Andreas Fault intersects with key lifelines, including freeways, railway lines, gas and petroleum pipelines as well as electric lines.
One of the biggest vulnerabilities, the report states, relates to the Cajon Pass (pictured). A major earthquake on the San Andreas, one of California's most dangerous faults, would cut most lifelines in and out of southern California, preventing critical aid from reaching some 20 million people and hampering recovery efforts, experts say.
She said one way to get around this dependency was to look at alternative water sources, including from contaminated aquifers beneath the Los Angeles area that could be cleaned up, albeit at a massive cost.
'The best defense against a broken aqueduct is to not need an aqueduct,' Jones said.
Installing automatic shutoff valves on natural gas and petroleum gas pipelines that run near the San Andreas Fault could also help prevent major fires, according to the report.
Local resident inspects a buckled highway outside of Napa, California, after earthquake struck the area in the early hours of August 24, 2014: Drafted by a group of business and policy leaders, a new report found several key areas that need to be addressed, notably aging infrastructure, water supplies and the risk of catastrophic fires.
As for maintaining communication with the outside world once the Big One strikes and disrupts energy grids, Jones said solar power could be one answer.
Also addressed in the report is the vulnerability of many homes and buildings in southern California, where local communities have yet to follow the example of the city of Los Angeles in requiring that structures that risk collapsing be retrofitted.
In addition, experts say, building codes need to be reviewed to make sure that not only will structures not kill people but will remain standing and usable after a major quake.
'Today, we are building in a huge financial vulnerability,' Jones said. 'We are not going to kill people with these buildings but we are not going to be able to use them afterward and that's a big deal.
Margaret Harrington shops for supplies at Earthquake Supply Center in San Rafael, California, in 2014 ©Justin Sullivan (Getty/AFP/File)
THE CONSTANTLY MOVING FAULT
Near the San Andreas Fault System, the Earth's crust is constantly moving.
It's been thought that large-scale motion has gradually been occurring in the crust that straddles this fault system – now, a new study using GPS data has revealed 'lobes' of movement nearly 125 miles wide.
While the vertical component of GPS data has typically been ignored in tectonic studies on the fault, the researchers say these findings indicate it can be used to improve understanding of how these structures behave.
The crust surrounding the San Andreas Fault in Southern California is moving a few millimetres every year in wide lobes of uplift and subsidence, according to the study.
The crust surrounding the San Andreas Fault in Southern California is moving a few millimetres every year in wide lobes of uplift (red) and subsidence (blue). A new study using GPS data has revealed these 'lobes' of movement are nearly 125 miles wide
'For one to two percent more of the cost, we could most likely make buildings still usable.'
Computer simulations by the US Geological Survey (USGS) suggest that a magnitude 7.8 quake on the southern end of the San Andreas fault would cause shaking for some two minutes, killing at least 1,800 people, injuring 53,000 and causing $213 billion in damage.
The largest recorded earthquake in California was the 1857 Fort Tejon quake that ruptured the San Andreas for 225 miles (360 kilometers).
Scientists say pressure and seismic energy has since furiously been building along the fault, which constitutes the boundary between two moving tectonic plates -- the North American and Pacific plates.
'It is inevitable that we will have a big earthquake because that pressure needs to be released,' said Robert Graves, a seismologist with the USGS.
He said that given the certainty that disaster will strike, California needs to address head-on vulnerabilities to minimize the impact.
'We need to get people to recognize that an event like this is a community event and we are at the beginning of that process,' Roberts said.
'This is more than say me as an individual making sure my building is gonna be safe.
'If all the other buildings in my neighborhood are knocked down and the water delivery system and power aren't working, it won't matter that my building is safe,' he continued.
'So we are in this together.'
PLANS FOR THE 'BIG ONE'
Federal, state and military officials have been working together to draft plans to be followed when the 'Big One' happens.
These contingency plans reflect deep anxiety about the potential gravity of the looming disaster: upward of 14,000 people dead in the worst-case scenarios, 30,000 injured, thousands left homeless and the region's economy setback for years, if not decades.
Julian Lozos, an assistant geophysics professor at California State University, claimed there is a strong chance this quake will coincide with one along the adjacent San Jacinto fault line, which runs through more heavily-populated cities. Both fault lines are shown above
As a response, what planners envision is a deployment of civilian and military personnel and equipment that would eclipse the response to any natural disaster that has occurred so far in the US.
There would be waves of cargo planes, helicopters and ships, as well as tens of thousands of soldiers, emergency officials, mortuary teams, police officers, firefighters, engineers, medical personnel and other specialists.
'The response will be orders of magnitude larger than Hurricane Katrina or Super Storm Sandy,' said Lt. Col. Clayton Braun of the Washington State Army National Guard.
This haunting photograph shows people walking through rubble in San Francisco on 18 April 1906. Many people are worried that the city and LA, for example, would look like this again due to a massive quake
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