[californiadisasters] Mother Nature Pulls a Fast One on Forecasters

The Los Angeles Basin has gone from a cool summer to a record hot day in the fall and is headed for the wettest December on the books. And there are no easy explanations, experts say.

By Hector Becerra and Catherine Saillant, Los Angeles Times  

December 21, 2010

For a region often ridiculed for the sameness of its weather, Los Angeles can point to 2010 as proof that it, too, deals with the extremes of Mother Nature.

It was substantially cooler than average this spring and summer. Then in late September, Los Angeles registered its hottest day ever recorded. Now, Southern California is in the throes of a rainstorm that could result in its wettest December on record.

The sharp changes have even veteran forecasters scratching their heads and searching for answers. Many forecasters had predicted the region would have a dryer than normal winter.

"Just when you think you have Mother Nature figured out, she sticks a finger in your eye," said Bill Patzert, a climatologist for the Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

There are no easy answers for the strange weather this year, scientists say. In general, as the globe warms, weather conditions tend to be more extreme and volatile, Patzert said.

More than 5 inches of rain have already fallen in downtown Los Angeles this month, and the record of 8.77 inches for December is within reach. Mammoth Mountain has already recorded the highest December snow levels ever.

After four days of pounding rain, another major storm is expected to hit Los Angeles on Tuesday and last through Wednesday night. Then another storm is expected to settle in over the Christmas weekend.

Until now, Patzert and other forecasters had been predicting a La Niña winter, defined by cooler than normal temperatures in the Pacific and lower than average rainfall in Southern California. Jamie Meier, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Oxnard, said it's too early to assume that the region's traditionally wettest months, January, February and March, will be similarly rainy. But with this month's storms, Los Angeles' rainfall is already well above average.

Meier noted that this year has also been marked by a lack of hot, dry Santa Ana winds. That, combined with several fall storms, has resulted in a conspicuous lack of major brush fires that often occur in October and November.

"We get a bad rap when it comes to having boring weather," Meier said. "But we've had quite a varied season, from record-breaking heat to getting a heavily frontloaded rainfall year."

Monday marked the fifth day of heavy rains and snow across California. Kern County was among the hardest-hit areas, and officials declared a state of emergency. Authorities evacuated 2,000 residents from the small farming town of McFarland as floodwaters threatened homes.

"About 400 to 500 houses are in danger of flooding around there," said spokesman Sean Collins of the Kern County Fire Department. "What we have there is quite a lot of farmland with ditches and drainages and canals. Without knowing, 100% it is quite possible one of the ditches either ran over or one of the banks broke."

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View entire article here: http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-1221-weather-extremes-20101221,0,217372,full.story

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