Canada and the US Are Running the 'Largest' Earthquake Sim Ever

Written by

Kate Lunau

Motherboard Editor

June 7, 2016

In the last 3,500 years or so, at least seven catastrophic earthquakes have ripped through the Pacific Northwest along the Cascadia Subduction Zone, a 1,000-foot fault line that stretches from Vancouver Island to California. These sorts of monster quakes, of an Earth-shattering 9.0 magnitude or greater, have occurred at an interval of roughly every 400-to-600 years, according to the US Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Recent centuries have been peaceful, allowing cities like Seattle and Vancouver to thrive. The last megathrust quake of this kind was in 1700, so we're just about due for another. Such an earthquake, when it happens, will be the worst natural disaster in the history of either Canada and the US—and that's saying something.

From Tuesday through Friday, in Canada and the US, about 20,500 people from the military, various government agencies, medical personnel, and basically anybody involved in disaster preparedness are staging a massive exercise to get ready for The Big One. "This is the largest exercise ever for a Cascadia break," Lt. Col. Clayton Braun of the Washington State National Guard told The Associated Press.

It's being called the "Cascadia Rising" by US officials. Canada's name for their own version is the slightly less poetic "Pacific Quake 16."

"What was not anticipated [in Japan] was that large of a tsunami"

Officials are hoping the simulation will get people ready, or at least make them aware of the risk. In a 9.0 megathrust quake, it isn't just a shaking of the ground that will be a problem.

"You're going to have landslides," Ken Murphy, regional administrator for FEMA Region 10, told me. "Some of our beautiful soil is going to liquefy and turn to muck. You're going to have people on the coast affected by a tsunami."

One of the lessons learned from the 9.0 quake that rocked Japan in 2011 was the viciousness of the tsunami that came after, according to Michael Bostock, a professor of earthquake seismology at the University of British Columbia.

"Japan is about as well-prepared for an earthquake as anyone," Bostock said. "Most of the major infrastructure stood up well. What was not anticipated was that large of a tsunami," which wreaked all kinds of damage, and devastated the Fukushima nuclear plant.

While no evacuation drills are planned this time, Murphy said that the exercise will involve running scenarios on "communications capabilities, our situational awareness, determining what has happened, medical issues, transportation issues."

In Canada, federal and provincial reps are simulating the aftermath of an earthquake off the coast of southwestern BC, a Public Safety Canada spokesperson told me.

"This fictitious event calls for strong shaking lasting several minutes in areas of Greater Vancouver, Greater Victoria and central Vancouver Island," Mylène Croteau said in an email. "In addition, the scenario incorporates an earthquake-generated tsunami on the west coast of Vancouver Island minutes after the initial shock."

Governments are taking the threat of an earthquake seriously. In BC, schools are being upgraded to withstand a punishing quake. But we're still far from ready. Bostock said he's been trying to retrofit his own home to make it better able to withstand an earthquake, but he's had a hard time finding builders who specialize in seismic retrofitting, despite the perennial risk of an earthquake in BC. California, meanwhile, has introduced grants for people who want to retrofit their homes against them.

A megathrust earthquake is coming to the Pacific Northwest—it's just a matter of when. This week, tens of thousands of people are practicing a response, which is a promising sign. When it happens, millions of people will be affected.

"We have to be prepared for the fact that it could strike within our lifetimes," Bostock said.