Friday, September 10, 2010

Re: [californiadisasters] NCSN seismic data - San Bruno explosion??

Direct answer to your question: Yes, there's a possibility. But a better
question would be, "What probability might there be...?"

Pretty much anything is possible, but a lot of the possible is
extraordinarily improbable. As a crude example, we know that it's possible
for a five-year-old to drive a car, but it has actually happened only very
rarely, so cops looking for a stolen car would not start out looking for a
five-year-old.

Two things I've heard Dr. Kate and/or her colleagues say on TV are important
for us to remember, lest we go off on conspiracy-theory or other tangents:

1. The human brain seeks order, patterns, and meaning, but this becomes a
problem where there is no order, pattern, or meaning.

2. (Invariable response to any question not directly on seismology): "That's
out of my area of expertise." (The lesson for us all is, don't say more than
you know. The true experts don't, but typically, those who know the least
say the most [and the loudest].)

And for Thursday evening, the answer to, "What happened?" was, "We don't
know."

For Friday, the question is, "How did it happen?", and the answer is again,
"We don't know."

I will say this much: Leaking gas (in a combustible concentration) and a
source of ignition obviously met. But that answer leaves a LOT unanswered.
We know that a large/powerful source of ignition was not necessary, only a
large area of combustible concentration of gas. Once the gas was ignited,
the area of gas and the volume coming from the source were major factors in
the amount of fire. Still, this leaves a LOT unanswered.


----- Original Message -----
From: <Infowolf1@aol.com>
To: <californiadisasters@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Friday, September 10, 2010 10:15 AM
Subject: Re: [californiadisasters] NCSN seismic data - San Bruno explosion??


any possibility, that someone knowing the leak so impending failure
was going on, decided to ignite it as a terrorist act?


In a message dated 9/10/2010 10:14:29 A.M. Pacific Daylight Time,
katehutton@gmail.com writes:


I doubt if an escalating failure, or even a slowly creeping slide, would
show up on a short-period seismometer. It will be interesting to see what
USGS Menlo Park has to say, if those lawyers don't get to them first ...

Kate


--
Check out _http://groups.yahoo.com/group/californiadisasters/_
(http://groups.yahoo.com/group/californiadisasters/)
Read our blog at _http://eclecticarcania.blogspot.com/_
(http://eclecticarcania.blogspot.com/)
Visit me on Facebook at _http://www.facebook.com/derkimster_
(http://www.facebook.com/derkimster)
Visit my Myspace at _http://www.myspace.com/kimusinteruptus_
(http://www.myspace.com/kimusinteruptus)
We have an Ebay store at _http://stores.ebay.com/K-K-Earthwerks_
(http://stores.ebay.com/K-K-Earthwerks)


------------------------------------

Be sure to check out our Links Section at http://groups.yahoo.com/group/californiadisasters/links
Please join our Discussion Group at http://groups.yahoo.com/group/californiadisasters_discussion/ for topical but extended discussions started here or for less topical but nonetheless relevant messages.Yahoo! Groups Links

<*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/californiadisasters/

<*> Your email settings:
Individual Email | Traditional

<*> To change settings online go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/californiadisasters/join
(Yahoo! ID required)

<*> To change settings via email:
californiadisasters-digest@yahoogroups.com
californiadisasters-fullfeatured@yahoogroups.com

<*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
californiadisasters-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com

<*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/

No comments:

Post a Comment