Fortunately, this forecast and warning turned out to be totally false. There's been little to no wind here in the San Fernando Valley throughout Thursday night through Friday, and we have a slight on-shore flow (which is great). There's also solid high cloud cover, which is coming up from the south.
How could this particular forecast be so off? I'm loving it though, as it's been dry and windy for three weeks straight. I can only assume the winds are up in the desert and never made it this far west.
Jason
In a message dated 1/23/2014 5:12:57 P.M. Pacific Standard Time, kimnoyes@gmail.com writes:
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE SANTA CLARITA AND VENTURA VALLEYS FOR GUSTY EAST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS OF SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES FOR GUSTY EAST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY... .GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT TO EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE WARM AND DRY AIRMASS WILL COOL AND MOISTEN SOME LEADING TO IMPROVING HUMIDITIES OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. WITH HISTORICALLY DRY VEGETATION HOWEVER...AND HUMIDITIES MOSTLY STAYING BELOW 25 PERCENT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY...THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL COVER THE INLAND VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS WHICH HAVE THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF LONG-DURATION GUSTY WINDS. CAZ236-240830- /O.EXB.KLOX.FW.W.0003.140124T1400Z-140125T0400Z/ SANTA YNEZ VALLEY- 259 PM PST THU JAN 23 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM PST FRIDAY FOR GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOS ANGELES/OXNARD HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM PST FRIDAY. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ON FRIDAY. STRONGEST WINDS AROUND NOON. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MINIMUMS 8 TO 15 PERCENT. * IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND VERY DRY FUELS WILL BRING EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR IF FIRE IGNITION OCCURS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING. && $$
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 259 PM PST THU JAN 23 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE SANTA CLARITA AND VENTURA VALLEYS FOR GUSTY EAST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS OF SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES FOR GUSTY EAST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY... .GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT TO EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE WARM AND DRY AIRMASS WILL COOL AND MOISTEN SOME LEADING TO IMPROVING HUMIDITIES OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. WITH HISTORICALLY DRY VEGETATION HOWEVER...AND HUMIDITIES MOSTLY STAYING BELOW 25 PERCENT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY...THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL COVER THE INLAND VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS WHICH HAVE THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF LONG-DURATION GUSTY WINDS. CAZ237-238-240830- /O.EXT.KLOX.FW.W.0003.140124T0800Z-140125T0400Z/ SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY- 259 PM PST THU JAN 23 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM PST FRIDAY FOR GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE EASTERN SAN LUIS OBISPO INTERIOR AND CUYAMA VALLEYS... * WINDS...SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH LATER TONIGHT THEN CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONGEST WINDS FRIDAY MORNING...AND OVER EASTERN VALLEYS AND HILLS. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MINIMUMS 8 TO 15 PERCENT. * IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND VERY DRY FUELS WILL BRING EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR IF FIRE IGNITION OCCURS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING. && $$
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 259 PM PST THU JAN 23 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE SANTA CLARITA AND VENTURA VALLEYS FOR GUSTY EAST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS OF SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES FOR GUSTY EAST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY... .GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT TO EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE WARM AND DRY AIRMASS WILL COOL AND MOISTEN SOME LEADING TO IMPROVING HUMIDITIES OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. WITH HISTORICALLY DRY VEGETATION HOWEVER...AND HUMIDITIES MOSTLY STAYING BELOW 25 PERCENT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY...THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL COVER THE INLAND VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS WHICH HAVE THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF LONG-DURATION GUSTY WINDS. CAZ244-245-288-240830- /O.EXT.KLOX.FW.W.0003.140123T2259Z-140125T0400Z/ VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS- SANTA CLARITA VALLEY- 259 PM PST THU JAN 23 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST FRIDAY FOR GUSTY EAST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE SANTA CLARITA AND VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS... ...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST FRIDAY FOR GUSTY EAST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE SANTA CLARITA AND VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS... * WINDS...EAST WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONGEST WINDS FRIDAY MORNING. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MINIMUM 10 TO 15 PERCENT. * IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND VERY DRY FUELS WILL BRING EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR IF FIRE IGNITION OCCURS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING. && $$
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 259 PM PST THU JAN 23 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE SANTA CLARITA AND VENTURA VALLEYS FOR GUSTY EAST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS OF SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES FOR GUSTY EAST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY... .GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT TO EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE WARM AND DRY AIRMASS WILL COOL AND MOISTEN SOME LEADING TO IMPROVING HUMIDITIES OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. WITH HISTORICALLY DRY VEGETATION HOWEVER...AND HUMIDITIES MOSTLY STAYING BELOW 25 PERCENT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY...THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL COVER THE INLAND VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS WHICH HAVE THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF LONG-DURATION GUSTY WINDS. CAZ251-252-240830- /O.CON.KLOX.FW.W.0003.140124T0800Z-140125T0400Z/ SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS / LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST- SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS- 259 PM PST THU JAN 23 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM PST FRIDAY FOR GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS... * WINDS...AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONGEST WINDS FRIDAY MORNING. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MINIMUMS 10 TO 15 PERCENT. * IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND VERY DRY FUELS WILL BRING EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR IF FIRE IGNITION OCCURS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING. && $$ KITTELL
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 259 PM PST THU JAN 23 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE SANTA CLARITA AND VENTURA VALLEYS FOR GUSTY EAST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS OF SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES FOR GUSTY EAST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY... .GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT TO EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE WARM AND DRY AIRMASS WILL COOL AND MOISTEN SOME LEADING TO IMPROVING HUMIDITIES OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. WITH HISTORICALLY DRY VEGETATION HOWEVER...AND HUMIDITIES MOSTLY STAYING BELOW 25 PERCENT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY...THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL COVER THE INLAND VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS WHICH HAVE THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF LONG-DURATION GUSTY WINDS. CAZ253-254-240830- /O.EXT.KLOX.FW.W.0003.140123T2259Z-140125T0400Z/ VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS / LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST- LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS / ANGELES NATIONAL FOREST- 259 PM PST THU JAN 23 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST FRIDAY FOR GUSTY EAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES... ...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST FRIDAY FOR GUSTY EAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES... * WINDS...AREAS OF NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH...BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MINIMUMS 8 TO 15 PERCENT TODAY...10 TO 20 PERCENT ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES 15 TO 30 PERCENT. * IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...MODERATELY LOW HUMIDITY...AND VERY DRY FUELS WILL BRING EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR IF FIRE IGNITION OCCURS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.___________________________________________URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA 1156 AM PST THU JAN 23 2014 ...VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND AREAS OF STRONG GUSTY EAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... .SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING AREAS OF STRONG GUSTY EAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY TO BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND THE INLAND VALLEYS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH. CAZ248-250-256>258-241215- /O.UPG.KSGX.FW.A.0002.140124T1200Z-140125T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KSGX.FW.W.0002.140123T2000Z-140125T0400Z/ SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE- SAN DIEGO COUNTY INLAND VALLEYS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE SAN JACINTO RANGER DISTRICT OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE TRABUCO RANGER DISTRICT OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE PALOMAR AND DESCANSO RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST- 1156 AM PST THU JAN 23 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST FRIDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN DIEGO HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST FRIDAY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * WINDS...EAST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MINIMUM HUMIDITY 6 TO 12 PERCENT TODAY AND 10 TO 15 PERCENT FRIDAY. POOR RECOVERIES TONIGHT. * TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. * OUTLOOK...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.Source: NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard & San Diego
___________________________________________
...VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND AREAS OF STRONG GUSTY EAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... .SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING AREAS OF STRONG GUSTY EAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY TO BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND THE INLAND VALLEYS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH. CAZ248-250-256>258-241215- /O.UPG.KSGX.FW.A.0002.140124T1200Z-140125T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KSGX.FW.W.0002.140123T2000Z-140125T0400Z/ SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE- SAN DIEGO COUNTY INLAND VALLEYS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE SAN JACINTO RANGER DISTRICT OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE TRABUCO RANGER DISTRICT OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE PALOMAR AND DESCANSO RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST- 1156 AM PST THU JAN 23 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST FRIDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN DIEGO HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST FRIDAY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * WINDS...EAST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MINIMUM HUMIDITY 6 TO 12 PERCENT TODAY AND 10 TO 15 PERCENT FRIDAY. POOR RECOVERIES TONIGHT. * TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. * OUTLOOK...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. -----------
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